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Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

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@POTUS 2020 @Gavin Feng @Olive

Hey everyone :)

I was curious about a few things in regards to Endgame. I know we don't know the opening yet, but I'll assume it's the week after the domestic open. Do we know the Maoyan "want-to-see" number yet? I know for Infinity War it nearly hit a million. 

Also, do you think due to the major success of IW, that we will see a significant increase in screen count or showtimes? Or is the market at saturation already?

Thanks for your help! 

 

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10 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

I was curious about a few things in regards to Endgame. I know we don't know the opening yet, but I'll assume it's the week after the domestic open. Do we know the Maoyan "want-to-see" number yet? I know for Infinity War it nearly hit a million. 
 

 

Maoyan currently at about 241,000 want to see for Endgame. Very high for a film that is 6 weeks out, and it should amp up considerably as we approach release date.

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14 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

@POTUS 2020 @Gavin Feng @Olive

Hey everyone :)

I was curious about a few things in regards to Endgame. I know we don't know the opening yet, but I'll assume it's the week after the domestic open. Do we know the Maoyan "want-to-see" number yet? I know for Infinity War it nearly hit a million. 

Also, do you think due to the major success of IW, that we will see a significant increase in screen count or showtimes? Or is the market at saturation already?

Thanks for your help! 

 

Shows have increases by 20% from an average of 275k per day(IW had 183k) last year to 330k currently. Its likely that its shows would also increase by 20% unless the rumor on IMDB is true that it will be 3 hours long.  That length would reduce daily shows by 16% as there will be one less show per screen per day.

EG's total should be close to flat at a minimum as CBO sequels seldom decline, unless its rejected

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7 minutes ago, POTUS 2020 said:

Shows have increases by 20% from an average of 275k per day(IW had 183k) last year to 330k currently. Its likely that its shows would also increase by 20% unless the rumor on IMDB is true that it will be 3 hours long.  That length would reduce daily shows by 16% as there will be one less show per screen per day.

EG's total should be close to flat at a minimum as CBO sequels seldom decline, unless its rejected

 

What about ticket price increase? I guess my overall question is, given everything we know and suspect, if the reception is equal to IW; do you think Endgame came increase from IW? I know the XR is about 6% worse than a year ago.....

 

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2 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

 

What about ticket price increase? I guess my overall question is, given everything we know and suspect, if the reception is equal to IW; do you think Endgame came increase from IW? I know the XR is about 6% worse than a year ago.....

 

yes many variables. 

 

Ticket price increases may hurt(adm) as much as it helps(rev) leaving it a net zero.  BO did not increase last CNY

 

I was thinking flat for yuan. good point you brought up about XR.  It is 6% from OW last year- 6.33.  I have the total at $376m at a 6.35 XR average for the run.  Mojo and others have it at $359m at 6.65 XR which was the rate on the last day of its run(incorrect). Its currently 6.71.

 

However, there should be an audience build since last year

 

Even with XR, OW and the total should still be close to flat(+/-5%) unless it scores a 9.2+ or an 8.8-.

We'll have to wait for PS, buzz from the Chinese members,  and then the rating to get a better idea

 

 

Edited by POTUS 2020
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5 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

@POTUS 2020

Looking further forward, I have a club for TLK over Titanic worldwide. Am I crazy to believe that, with a proper high score (9+ on Maoyan, 8+ on Douban) that TLK can get to over 2 billion yuan? 

You have to ask @Gavin Feng @Olive or @firedeep about that.  No idea what TLK will do.  Zoo is all time #1 toon with 1.5b yuan

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7 hours ago, firedeep said:

VenomXXR is not crazy. I too believe TLK has 3B/3B worldwide/China potential.

 

Awesome. I know the battle is a tough one, but with the heavy nostalgia in a lot of countries and the 4 quadrant story / visuals in others, I think it’s possible.

 

China is essential to beating Titanic, and if it could hit 3B there that would be insane! 

 

Is a huge opening weekend (IW, FF8) possible, or would it be smaller with longer legs?

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19 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Awesome. I know the battle is a tough one, but with the heavy nostalgia in a lot of countries and the 4 quadrant story / visuals in others, I think it’s possible.

 

China is essential to beating Titanic, and if it could hit 3B there that would be insane! 

 

Is a huge opening weekend (IW, FF8) possible, or would it be smaller with longer legs?

I think it will open huge.

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13 minutes ago, POTUS 2020 said:

Domestic release is July 19th. Will China wait until late August?

If that's the case, it could potentially square off against Hobbs & Shaw. Not expecting F&F main saga numbers for that, but it should be big nonetheless. 

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38 minutes ago, POTUS 2020 said:

Domestic release is July 19th. Will China wait until late August?


What's the possibility of a same day release for it in China? I'd like for it to have at least 2 weekends without competition lol

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4 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:


What's the possibility of a same day release for it in China? I'd like for it to have at least 2 weekends without competition lol

i would say close to zero they have black out in china in july or whatever  they call it (maybe i am wrong though)

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Some Hollywood movies have been given July releases in China, but it is rare. Despicable Me 3 got one in 2017 (part of the reason why it did so well was zero Hollywood competition) and also Skyscraper last year (but I think this was considered co-production?). 

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