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BOT User Tracking 4/29-5/1 Keanu, Mother's Day, Ratchet and Clank

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Sadly, judging by the reviews and box office, Huntsman came in just exactly as awful as expected. Hopefully this week will be better.


Please provide your 4/29-5/1 Opening Weekend predicts for, 


Mother's Day

Ratchet and Clank


Deadline this week will be Thursday afternoon (US Eastern time), whenever I get to it.

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And we have a new winner! Ratchet and Clank's 63.43% ratio is the highest of any movie we've ever predicted, making it our least confident predict ever. The score is thanks in part to a few (it wasn't just one) extremely optimistic (imo, anyway) predicts. We'll see how it goes.


Overall, we're pretty optimistic on Keanu (2nd highest after Movieweb.com's 19.1M), just about in the middle on Mother's Day, and, hrm, I suppose slightly high on Ratchet and Clank. 4 of the 6 predictors are bunched together around 8M (and we're the lowest of those 4 at 7.7M), but then the other two predictors are much lower at 4.7M and 5.5M.


So, as usual, I totaled all predicts (17 for Keanu and Mother's Day, 15 for Ratchet and Clank) and here are the results:



Mean: 17.3M

Median: 17M

StnDev: 3.30M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 19.07%

High: 24.7M

Low: 10M


BO.com 15M 

Deadline 10M

MovieWeb 19.1M

ShowBuzzDaily 15.5M

Variety 11M


Mother's Day

Mean: 11.4M

Median: 10M

StnDev: 4.19M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 36.84%

High: 25M

Low: 7M


BO.com 9.5M 

Deadline 12M

MovieWeb 13.4M

ShowBuzzDaily 10.5M

Variety 12M


Ratchet and Clank

Mean: 7.7M

Median: 6.5M

StnDev: 4.9M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 63.43%

High: 19M

Low: 3M


BO.com 4.7M 

Deadline 8M

MovieWeb 8.2M

ShowBuzzDaily 5.5M

Variety 8M

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Prediction: 17.3M +/- 3.3M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 9.4M (off by 7.8M, so 2.38 stndev)

Just terrible. Deadline and Variety called it pretty well, but everyone else crashed like us. mahnamahna was closest as our low predict at 10M.


Mother's Day

Prediction: 11.4M +/- 4.19M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 8.4M (off by 3.0M, so 0.71 stndev)

Not bad. Middle of the road among predicts. Arlo245 was closest at 8.5M.


Ratchet and Clank

Prediction: 7.7M +/- 4.9M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 4.9M (off by 2.8M, so 0.58 stndev)

There is no problem that a gigantic standard deviation can't fix! Look at that, off by like 30% of our predict, yet a pretty good predict at 0.58. Go, Team Uncertainty! We were about in the middle overall. BO.com nailed it and ShowBuzzDaily was close, but we were closer than everyone else. Best predict was cannastop at 5M.

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