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BOT User Tracking 5/20-22 Angry Birds, Neighbors 2, Nice Guys

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Civil War was fun, and then we had a nice palate-cleanser weekend, but now the summer begins in earnest. I trust your loins are girded.


Please provide your 5/20-22 Opening Weekend predicts for, 

Angry Birds

Neighbors 2

Nice Guys


Deadline this week will be Thursday afternoon (US Eastern time), whenever I get to it.


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We're bullish on Angry Birds and Nice Guys, but bearish on Neighbors 2. In fact, our lowest predict on Nice Guys is higher than the average predict of the other sites. Of some concern is that our ratios on Angry Birds and Nice Guys are low relative to their predicted OW totals suggesting we're unusually confident (as a group) in our predicts. Usually, the more confident we are, the more trouble we get into on our predicts. Maybe this will be the weekend we break that trend. 



As usual, I totaled all predicts (23 for Angry Birds and Neighbors 2, 22 for Nice Guys) and here are the results:


Angry Birds

Mean: 40.6M

Median: 40M

StnDev: 4.41M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 10.85%

High: 51M

Low: 33M


BO.com 39M 

Deadline 38M

MovieWeb 58M

ShowBuzzDaily 39.5M

Variety 38M


Neighbors 2

Mean: 31M

Median: 29.6M

StnDev: 8.14M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 26.23%

High: 51.2M

Low: 18M


BO.com 36.5M 

Deadline 38M

MovieWeb 40.4M

ShowBuzzDaily 38.5M

Variety 34M


Nice Guys

Mean: 17.7M

Median: 17M

StnDev: 2.61M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 14.72%

High: 24M

Low: 14M


BO.com 17M 

Deadline 10M

MovieWeb 15.5M

ShowBuzzDaily 16M

Variety 10M

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Angry Birds

Prediction: 40.6M +/- 4.41M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 38.2M (off by 2.4M, so 0.55 stndev)

Pretty good in a vacuum, but everyone else called it even better. Arlborn was out best predict, hitting it perfectly at 38.2M.

Neighbors 2

Prediction: 31.0M +/- 8.14M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 21.8M (off by 9.2M, so 1.13 stndev)

Not a good predict overall, but we were the best by a significant margin which is nice. Blankments was our best predict at 22.1M.


Nice Guys

Prediction: 17.7M +/- 2.61M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 11.2M (off by 6.5M, so 2.5 stndev)

Ow. We were way too optimistic and had the worst predict. Variety and Deadline actually came in too LOW though they were off by less than us. Impact was our best predict at 14M.


Going forward, and I'll mention this again in other places, our "formal" prediction is going to switch. Historically we've always gone with our mean predict, but starting this week (I mean Alice 2 week, not Angry Birds week) we're going to start using our median predict as our formal number. Obviously I'll keep tracking both, but over almost a year of data our median has been consistently more accurate than our mean and, all things being equal, we'd rather make good predicts than bad ones.

Edited by Wrath
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