MEH-MORIAL DAY WEEKEND BOX OFFICE | Abandon all hope, the box office is dead. 3 day weekend #s X-Men 65M, Alice 28.1M, Angry Birds 18.7M, Civil War 15.1M, Neighbors 9.1M. Bad openings, horrible holdovers.

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, babz06 said:

That's what i was thinking as well. July looks like the most balanced month of the summer.

I'm thinking early June we'll see a bunch of flops until Dory/Central Intelligence/IDR comes out.

 

July 1-Tarzan/ The BFG/ The Purge 3/The Shallows - This is probably the only meh weekend. ID and Dory should still be ruling the roost but Purge 3/Shallows will both find horror audiences. 

July 8- Secret Life of Pets should do atleast Lorax numbers, Mike and Dave has two appealing stars (Zac Efron/Anna Kendrick) the trailers haven't been that great but i think their combined fanbase shows out for it, probably Vacation-type numbers.

July 15- Ghostbusters/ The Infiltrator- I think there is enough curiosity on Ghostbusters (good and bad)  to produce a big opening weekend, legs depend on WOM. 

July 19-Ice Age: Collison Course/ Lights Out/Star Trek Beyond- The second trailer for Star Trek  Beyond was received better than the first, and space/adventure movies are popular right now. Lights Out is another low budget horror film and should do well enough to make a profit. Ice Age is probably the only under-performing film this weekend. 

July 29- Jason Bourne/ Bad Moms/Nerve- Jason Bourne is one of the most anticipated summer films I think it does huge numbers. Bad Moms is going to appeal to women and adults, it's another original comedy that I think does well. Nerve is a non factor.

 

August really only has Suicide Squad. Unless Pete's Dragon/Sausage Party breaks out, or one of the several adult skewing dramas (The Founder, Florence Foster Jenkins, Hands of Stone, etc) I wouldn't bet on a high grossing month. So it's really late June/July that's going to carry this summer.

 

 

Mike & Dave looks like an obvious flop imo.

[Star Lord]

Civil War has made over 1 billion (and with a high quality pirated copy online) while BVS could not even with the first big screen appearance of the Trinity. I think CW has more than meets its expectation. And as we can see from this year, both BVS and XM Apocalypse did not do so well, which means moviegoers are very selective when they go to see a movie in the theater. 

[Murgatroyd]

9 minutes ago, somebody85 said:

I don't think Suicide Squad is going to suffer from this fatigue (if there is any) due to the way it's being marketed. People would love another Deadpool.

 

The question is whether it's another Deadpool, or a case of "I knew Deadpool. Deadpool was a friend of mine. You, sir, are no Deadpool."

[somebody85]

6 minutes ago, Nova said:

Is Suicide Squad another Deadpool though? Just because it has a few jokes in the trailers doesn't mean it's Deadpool. Nor does it have that R-rating that would allow it to get away with some things. Nor can it market itself the way Deadpool marketed himself. Deadpool's BluRay marketing was better than some movies marketing period. I personally think Suicide Squad is going to underperform people's expectations on here and the talk of super hero fatigue is going to continue. 

I guess we'll see! I think Suicide Squad looks less like a Super Hero film and more like a fun crazy adrenaline rush. The marketing has focused on the comedy so I dunno.

I don't think it will be like Deadpool in a meta way but I think it's different enough from the regular formula that people may be excited for it. I guess it remains to be seen what happens though. I'm still not seeing the huge numbers regardless and reviews could change everything.

Edited May 30, 2016 by somebody85

[That One Girl]

Civil War probably lost their legs in its own climatic battle

 

Now, let's hope people understand the horrible pun I just made

Edited May 30, 2016 by ThatOneGuy

[Nova]

5 minutes ago, babz06 said:

That's what i was thinking as well. July looks like the most balanced month of the summer.

I'm thinking early June we'll see a bunch of flops until Dory/Central Intelligence/IDR comes out.

 

July 1-Tarzan/ The BFG/ The Purge 3/The Shallows - This is probably the only meh weekend. ID and Dory should still be ruling the roost but Purge 3/Shallows will both find horror audiences. 

July 8- Secret Life of Pets should do atleast Lorax numbers, Mike and Dave has two appealing stars (Zac Efron/Anna Kendrick) the trailers haven't been that great but i think their combined fanbase shows out for it.

July 15- Ghostbusters/ The Infiltrator- I think there is enough curiosity on Ghostbusters (good and bad)  to produce a big opening weekend, legs depend on WOM. 

July 19-Ice Age: Collison Course/ Lights Out/Star Trek Beyond- The second trailer for Star Trek  Beyond was received better than the first, and space/adventure movies are popular right now. Lights Out is another low budget horror film and should do well enough to make a profit. Ice Age is probably the only under-performing film this weekend. 

July 29- Jason Bourne/ Bad Moms/Nerve- Jason Bourne is one of the most anticipated summer films I think it does huge numbers. Bad Moms is going to appeal to women and adults, it's another original comedy that I think does well. Nerve is a non factor.

 

August really only has Suicide Squad. Unless Pete's Dragon/Sausage Party breaks out, or one of the several adult skewing dramas (The Founder, Florence Foster Jenkins, Hands of Stone, etc) I wouldn't bet on a high grossing month. So it's really late June/July that's going to carry this summer.

 

I have The Purge/The Shallows saving that first weekend in July. The Purge franchise has had solid/stable numbers. And people love their shark movies. 

Secret Life is going to kill it in my opinionwhile Mike and Dave is going to flop flop flop. 

Ghostbusters is flopping as well. 

StarTrek will have solid numbers as well as the new Bourne movie. The Bourne trailer was well-received when it was played before XMA. 

I think Suicide Squad will do okay numbers because it has barely any competition but I see it underperforming based on some people's expectations on here. 

[filmlover]

lol I can't wait to see The Shallows.

[Nova]

6 minutes ago, somebody85 said:

I guess we'll see! I think Suicide Squad looks less like a Super Hero film and more like a fun crazy adrenaline rush. The marketing has focused on the comedy so I dunno.

I don't think it will be like Deadpool in a meta way but I think it's different enough from the regular formula that people may be excited for it. I guess it remains to be seen what happens though. I'm still not seeing the huge numbers regardless and reviews could change everything.

My issue with Suicide Squad is that though. I don't even think it knows what it wants to be. It's marketing is focused on comedy but then you heard that most of the jokes were in the trailer, so is it really a comedy? And then the cameo with Batman and I'm like okay so what's this movie about? I guess I can't complain cause my butt will be in the theater to see what it's all about in terms of story line so I'm thankful they didn't ruin the story like most trailers do. I think it'll pull in good numbers but I see some people saying $150M OW is locked and I'm like ha ha. But like always, I think reviews especially in this case could change things. 

Edited May 30, 2016 by Nova

[baumer]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Everyone should just go see Love & Friendship over these next few weeks, tbh. Even @Baumer would enjoy it.

 

You're implying that I usually wouldn't like stuff like this?

[somebody85]

I'm not really looking forward to much else this summer though when it comes to the big blockbusters. Civil War was #1 and that was awesome but everything else?

The only ones I'll probably see in theaters are - The Conjuring 2 (IF reviews are good. If they trash it, no way), Independence Day: Resurgence, Star Trek: Beyond, Jason Bourne, The BFG (but hypes already way down after the initial reactions) and Suicide Squad.
 

I think TMNT 2, Warcraft, Finding Dory will all be letdowns. I don't really know of anything else? Not going to theaters for the comedies even though Central Intelligence looks entertaining. Maybe Petes Dragon?

 

[cannastop]

9 minutes ago, somebody85 said:

I guess we'll see! I think Suicide Squad looks less like a Super Hero film and more like a fun crazy adrenaline rush. 

I bet the marketing department is pissed that you thought of that tagline before they did.

[somebody85]

Just now, cannastop said:

I bet the marketing department is pissed that you thought of that tagline before they did.

 

Well clearly that's what it's being marketed as with the last two trailers and the soundtrack. The fonts they used on the posters.

That's what they want it to be lol. Reviews are going to indicate a lot. If they say it's not what the marketing indicates, it will suffer.

I trust fan screenings even less after Batman V Superman. So early WOM means nothing for this, just like it meant nothing for Deadpool.

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, Baumer said:

 

You're implying that I usually wouldn't like stuff like this?

You don't strike me as the kind that would enjoy a movie that is a period dramedy based on a Jane Austen novel, no you have not.

 

But excuse me if I that sounded like a slight. It's ssssooooo good. In a just world, Kate Beckinsale would get a Best Actress nomination.

 

 

[RyneOh1040]

The newest trailer that was before X-Men made SS seem like the Harley Quinn show.  I totally get it because it looks like Margot knocked it out of the park and they're doing the solo film but the tone seemed quite different from the initial one.  I also read somewhere that there was reshoots because audience reaction was that it wasn't funny enough, did anyone else see that?

[mrqe93]

3 hours ago, trifle said:

 

not sure if serious...

 

But there are XA copies out there, I see them touted on twitter.  I haven't clicked on any links to judge quality, though. 

 

I am serious. Industry experts like BKB estimate loss of $53mil for Civil War due to piracy, which should have been enough to top AOU DOM.

[Avatree]

Suicide Squad is not going to be a comedy like Deadpool. Has anyone actually watched any of David Ayer's movies?

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, Treetrunk Special said:

Suicide Squad is not going to be a comedy like Deadpool. Has anyone actually watched any of David Ayer's movies?

 

Directors can change tone if they want to.

 

Spielberg made E.T. as a family crowdpleaser movie.  Schindler's List was a serious, grim Holocaust movie.

 

[Belakor]

3 minutes ago, Treetrunk Special said:

Suicide Squad is not going to be a comedy like Deadpool. Has anyone actually watched any of David Ayer's movies?

The comedy will be much, much,... darker. Not the dumb fart/ass jokes DP had.

[DAJK]

44 minutes ago, Treetrunk Special said:

nothing will ever beat the time a dude asked me for a The Martian ticket by saying, "Maaattt Daaaaaamon" (to which i ofc replied, "Maaatt Daaaaaamon")

Someone thought In the Heart of the Sea was a Thor movie once

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, Belakor said:

The comedy will be much, much,... darker. Not the dumb fart/ass jokes DP had.

 

Yet the fart/ass jokes made the movie the highest grossing X-Men movie and possible revolutionizing the superhero movie industry