4-Day Weekend Actuals: Apoc $79.8M, Alice 2 $33.5M, Angry Birds $24.6M, Cap 3 $20.0M

[Daxtreme]

Captain America: Civil War

BV

$20,004,508

 

 

The fudge 

[johnboy3434]

1 hour ago, johnboy3434 said:

IF YOU JUST WANT PROJECTIONS, SKIP THIS...

 

Here's the projections based on four-day weekend actuals. I think I've finally worked most of the kinks out of my forecasting procedure. I'm using the daily data for one roughly similar movie as an external regressor for my time series analysis on each film, chosen based on six criteria:

 

1.) MPAA rating (G, PG, PG-13, R, NC-17)

2.) opening theater count (800-1999, 2000-2499, 2500-2999, 3000+; <800 is considered "limited release" and will not be tracked)

3.) opening weekday (Friday or non-Friday) 

4.) month of release (when applicable, this is narrowed to specific holidays)

5.) opening weekend rank (#1, #2-#5, #6-#10, #11+)

6.) adjusted opening weekend gross

 

The pool of candidates is narrowed to those that match the first five criteria. Then, of those, the one with the adjusted opening weekend gross closest to the film being forecasted is chosen as the external regressor. In the interest of full disclosure, here are the regressors for each of the below films:

 

X-Men: Apocalypse? Men in Black 3

Captain America: Civil War? Iron Man 3

Alice Through the Looking Glass? Epic

Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising? A Million Ways to Die in the West

The Angry Birds Movie? Shrek

The Nice Guys? Georgia Rule

Money Monster? House of Wax

The Darkness? Delta Farce

 

Before opening weekend, I play it a bit fast and loose, picking a "comparable" film based on various website's projections. I then re-pick the film after opening weekend when I have real information to work with.

 

PROJECTIONS HERE (ALL WEEKEND DROPS ARE FROM THE FOUR-DAY, SO THEY'LL BE HIGH)...

 

 

X-Men: Apocalypse

Tuesday: $5.41M (-61.5%)

Wednesday: $3.82M (-29.4%)

Thursday: $3.94M (+3.23%)

OPENING WEEK TOTAL: $93M

Friday: $8.4M (+113%)

Saturday: $12.9M (+53.1%)

Sunday: $8.29M (-35.6%)

SECOND WEEKEND TOTAL: $29.6M (-63%)

PROJECTED DOMESTIC TOTAL: $176M (2.2x)

 

Captain America: Civil War

Tuesday: $1.69M (-63.2%)

Wednesday: $1.5M (-11.5%)

Thursday: $1.34M (-10.9%)

FOURTH WEEK TOTAL: $24.5M (-43.2%)

Friday: $2.19M (+64.2%)

Saturday: $2.82M (+28.4%)

Sunday: $2.14M (-24.1%)

FIFTH WEEKEND TOTAL: $7.15M (-64.3%)

PROJECTED DOMESTIC TOTAL: $409M (2.28x)

 

Alice Through the Looking Glass

Tuesday: $1.65M (-75.2%)

Wednesday: $1.31M (-20.7%)

Thursday: $1.29M (-1.28%)

OPENING WEEK TOTAL: $37.8M

Friday: $3.31M (+156%)

Saturday: $5.25M (+58.4%)

Sunday: $3.97M (-24.4%)

SECOND WEEKEND TOTAL: $12.5M (-62.6%)

PROJECTED DOMESTIC TOTAL: $76.6M (2.29x)

 

Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising

Tuesday: $1.64M (-21.3%)

Wednesday: $1.49M (-9.31%)

Thursday: $1.18M (-21.1%)

SECOND WEEK TOTAL: $15.8M (-46.1%)

Friday: $1.52M (+29.1%)

Saturday: $1.84M (+21.1%)

Sunday: $1.65M (-10.3%)

THIRD WEEKEND TOTAL: $5.01M (-56.3%)

PROJECTED DOMESTIC TOTAL: $59.3M (2.73x)

 

The Angry Birds Movie

Tuesday: $1.25M (-78.4%)

Wednesday: $1.12M (-10.5%)

Thursday: $1.22M (+9.02%)

SECOND WEEK TOTAL: $28.1M (-40.9%)

Friday: $3.08M (+153%)

Saturday: $5.81M (+88.6%)

Sunday: $4.02M (-30.9%)

THIRD WEEKEND TOTAL: $12.9M (-47.4%)

PROJECTED DOMESTIC TOTAL: $134M (3.5x)

 

The Nice Guys

Tuesday: $954k (-45.1%)

Wednesday: $930k (-2.61%)

Thursday: $887k (-4.58%)

SECOND WEEK TOTAL: $11M (-28.2%)

Friday: $1.1M (+23.7%)

Saturday: $1.49M (+35.4%)

Sunday: $1.4M (-5.87%)

THIRD WEEKEND TOTAL: $3.98M (-51.8%)

PROJECTED DOMESTIC TOTAL: $36.5M (3.26x)

 

Money Monster

Tuesday: $625k (-51.8%)

Wednesday: $611k (-2.3%)

Thursday: $656k (+7.39%)

THIRD WEEK TOTAL: $7.52M (-21.9%)

Friday: $740k (+12.9%)

Saturday: $853k (+15.2%)

Sunday: $788k (-7.69%)

FOURTH WEEKEND TOTAL: $2.38M (-57.7%)

PROJECTED DOMESTIC TOTAL: $41.2M (2.79x)

 

The Darkness

Tuesday: $113k (-35.5%)

Wednesday: $114k (+0.92%)

Thursday: $112k (-1.19%)

THIRD WEEK TOTAL: $1.23M (-59.3%)

PROJECTED DOMESTIC TOTAL: $10.3M (2.09x)

 

 

Remember that DC/Marvel crossover where Doctor Doom ended up stuck in the Source Wall? Supposedly it was canon, but I think they never explained how he got out.

 

EDIT: Well shit. Quoted the wrong post. SHAMELESS REPOST, then. At least it's near the top of the page now.

Edited June 1, 2016 by johnboy3434

[department store basement]

Could Disney's 2016 be like Universal's 2015 (some amazing flops, but still winning the year due to some great successes)?

 

Edited June 1, 2016 by department store basement

[trifle]

6 hours ago, cannastop said:

Not sure if you're being sarcastic.

 

I sure tried to find it on Imax and couldn't, before I was informed here that Disney had them for Alice by contract.

[kowhite]

1 hour ago, department store basement said:

Could Disney's 2016 be like Universal's 2015 (some amazing flops, but still winning the year due to some great successes)?

 

 

Yeah, kinda .  Their hits are fucking stacked.  Two flops so far.

 

And the other ones at risk...are small time...even BFG cause their stake in that is lower.  So...yeah, they're fine.

[cannastop]

8 hours ago, kowhite said:

 

Yeah, kinda .  Their hits are fucking stacked.  Two flops so far.

 

And the other ones at risk...are small time...even BFG cause their stake in that is lower.  So...yeah, they're fine.

None quite stacked as Jurassic World.

[GuardianDevil]

11 hours ago, BKB IS CAPTAIN AMERICA said:

So which movie has done worse now?? The F4 Trank Reboot or X-MEN: ACRAPOLYPSE??

Civil War.

[Cochofles]

11 hours ago, BKB IS CAPTAIN AMERICA said:

So which movie has done worse now?? The F4 Trank Reboot or X-MEN: ACRAPOLYPSE??

 

Craptain America: Starring the Avengers (with a Chris Evans Cameo)

[m3racer123]

10 hours ago, cannastop said:

None quite stacked as Jurassic World.

 

Not long to wait till Finding Dory though. That has a real shot at highest grossing animated film.

[dudalb]

On ‎5‎/‎31‎/‎2016 at 1:15 PM, CJohn said:

The discussion probably went like "You want Star Wars and Marvel movies? Then show Alice in IMAX goddamit!". 

That is called Blockbooking,and in the U.S. it is technically illegal (it violates Anti Trust laws) but behind the scenes is indulged in by studios all the time...but more by dint of hints rather then out and out threats.