Weekend Estimates (Page 92): Pets 103.2M (biggest OW ever for an original movie) | Tarzan 20.6M | Dory 20.3M | M&D 16.6M

[AniNate]

16 minutes ago, Spaghetti said:

It'll probably be Paramounted to $100M.

 

Illumination is pretty much the ice cream truck bar of animation. Sugary, loud, not a whole lot of substance at all, but it's easy to see why people like it, and you even enjoy a bit of it yourself a few times. 

 

Not a bad way to describe them. I did like it better than DM2

[Nova]

I think SLOP will clear $100M. I think that multiplier on MandD is too high if it's true Friday was $4.5M. 

Dory was bound to take a hit at some point in time. It's still a fantastic run and will sure get to $500M 

tarzan with a good hold. I can see it getting to $125M. 

Purge with its expected drop but with a $10M budget at this point who cares haha 

CI is just killing it. It's holds have been ridiculous. Unbelievable. 

IDR....I guess it could be worse. It's looking like it'll clear $100M so good for it lol 

The BFG 

The Shallows with a good hold. Looking at $55M+ now and a 3.3x 

[baumer]

I watched about 10 minutes of BFG yesterday. Safe to say I will not be watching the other hundred minutes of it.

[a2k]

Alice2 + BFG + IDR
170 + 140 + 165 = 475.0M combined Budget

77 + 57.5 + 103 = 237.5M combined DOM (475/2)

[zackzack]

17 minutes ago, Baumer said:

I watched about 10 minutes of BFG yesterday. Safe to say I will not be watching the other hundred minutes of it.

 

Why? The actress?

[zackzack]

2 minutes ago, a2knet said:

Alice2 + BFG + IDR
170 + 140 + 165 = 475.0M combined Budget

77 + 57.5 + 103 = 237.5M combined DOM (475/2)

 

IDR is the most disappointing of them all. But I figure people are tired of 

alien invasion movies. I wonder how much gross can Will Smith add them 

MI3 gross is merely good compared to their sequels.

[a2k]

When DM1 opened to 56m, the official estimate was 60m and the was revised down by 4m with Monday actuals.

If PETS does 96m+, 100m estimate will happen imo. It's too much of a milestone not to over-estimate.

Fudging (actuals) is bad but pushing the estimates by a small margin for a milestone is fair imo.

[goldenstate5]

I think it misses $100 by a few. Lowball it to an solid $95 to 96 (which is... good GOD)... I still don't think it'll have that great legs, sorry. I just I don't. I'm seeing $285 to $300, about a 3x multi at best. I knew Minions would slow down and I expect the same of this.

 

It's sad that Dory will miss $500 but at LEAST it's finally beating the animation total record. That's all I ever wanted.

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, zackzack said:

 

IDR is the most disappointing of them all. But I figure people are tired of 

alien invasion movies. I wonder how much gross can Will Smith add them 

MI3 gross is merely good compared to their sequels.

 

ALICE2 is most shocking to me. It's DOM is less than 2 days (Fri + Sat) of ALICE 1(85m).

I don't think Will Smith would have added enough dough to justify his salary and stardom-shenanigans that he brings.

[boxofficeth]

I have no idea why Disney dumped the BFG in the summer. It could have grossed twice if released in the winter. 

 

After Jungle Book Disney have already two consecutive underperform fantasy live action. I hope the streak will end with Pete's Dragon.

[That One Girl]

Predicts:

 

Pets: 105M

Mike and Dave: 15M

[That One Girl]

Also I'm saddened by the amount of people making fun of The BFG...  

[Mojoguy]

Live action family films disappoint more and more when compared to animated films in recent years.

Animated films have become more of an EVENT for families to go to.

Edited July 9, 2016 by Mojoguy

[mahnamahna]

1 hour ago, Nova said:

I think SLOP will clear $100M. I think that multiplier on MandD is too high if it's true Friday was $4.5M. 

Dory was bound to take a hit at some point in time. It's still a fantastic run and will sure get to $500M 

tarzan with a good hold. I can see it getting to $125M. 

Purge with its expected drop but with a $10M budget at this point who cares haha 

CI is just killing it. It's holds have been ridiculous. Unbelievable. 

IDR....I guess it could be worse. It's looking like it'll clear $100M so good for it lol 

The BFG 

The Shallows with a good hold. Looking at $55M+ now and a 3.3x 

How is Central Intelligence holding amazing? I don't get this logic. 

2 hours ago, Chaz said:

In less than 48 hours we went from discussing Dory passing TDK to missing $500 million completely. The box office is as unpredictable as me on MDNA at Wal-Mart.

That's more of the reactionary style of people on here than actual fact IMO.

 

$15 million ($452 million) - no competition 

$9.5 million ($472 million)

$7.5 million ($487 million)

$5 million ($496 million)

$3.5 million ($501 million)

$2 million ($503 million)

$1.5 million ($505 million)

$2.5 million/$3.25 million ($509 million)

4 hours ago, James said:

Pets will do 100m. Dory needs to have good holds from now on to touch 500m. Good hold for Tarzan. Thinking it could hit 19m. Amazing for Central Intelligence. And looool at that BFG drop. Where is it's amazing WOM? 

Dory should hold well just about every week for the rest of the summer except Kubo. I think IA5 will underperform big time due to a possible $350 million+ DOM for Pets. 

 

Disney will find a way for $500-505 million DOM. A 15-20% drop next week would help matters.. Ghostbusters doing only $30-35 million OW would help. 

 

Central Intelligence isn't doing amazing. It's holding how just about every well-liked studio comedy of the last 5 years has held. Its not like it's a Hangover 1 multi. 

Edited July 9, 2016 by mahnamahna

[Ethan Hunt]

9 hours ago, Spidey Freak said:

 

Not to be a contrarian or anything but I can't be the only one who preferred the predatory and tenacious fogey to the immense drag that Marlin can be at times? Favorite hawk character eva!

[WrathOfHan]

Where I expect Dory to land:

 

Jul 8: 19.2M (12.3M weekdays, 433.7M Total)

Jul 15: 11.5M (6.9M weekdays, 452.1M Total)

Jul 22: 5.8M (3.4M weekdays, 461.3M Total)

Jul 29: 3.8M (2.2M weekdays, 467.3M Total)

Aug 5: 1.9M (1M weekdays, 470.2M Total)

Aug 12: 1.3M (700k weekdays, 472.2M Total)

 

Final Total: 477M (3.53x)

 

It's going to need great drops (sub-40) from here on out for 500M.

[Ethan Hunt]

8 hours ago, cannastop said:

Your edit note said "horny". That's weird, to say the least.

Not for Noctis it isn't 

[CJohn]

BFG getting wrecked. It was expected. Disney knew it was gonna get killed by Dory and Pets.

[mahnamahna]

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Where I expect Dory to land:

 

Jul 8: 19.2M (12.3M weekdays, 433.7M Total)

Jul 15: 11.5M (6.9M weekdays, 452.1M Total)

Jul 22: 5.8M (3.4M weekdays, 461.3M Total)

Jul 29: 3.8M (2.2M weekdays, 467.3M Total)

Aug 5: 1.9M (1M weekdays, 470.2M Total)

Aug 12: 1.3M (700k weekdays, 472.2M Total)

 

Final Total: 477M (3.53x)

 

It's going to need great drops (sub-40) from here on out for 500M.

Why would it drop that hard against a $30 million opener? I don't see GB being real competition 

 

I could easily see it rebounding with a 15-20% drop next week to offset the 50-55% drop this week. 

 

Also, why such a harsh drop against Suicide Squad? That has almost zero kid appeal. 

[Nova]

8 minutes ago, mahnamahna said:

How is Central Intelligence holding amazing? I don't get this logic. 

 

Are you serious right now? Its drops the past two weekends have been 35% and its day to day drops have been on the low end especially compared to other films on the list. It's going to get to $130M by the end of its run which would give it a 3.7x which is very very good. To say otherwise is ridiculous and nonsense. Not every comedy film is going to preform like The Hangover.