Wednesday: Nerve - $3.75M (1.1M previews), Trek 4.9M, Pets 3.8M

[grim22]

33 minutes ago, a2knet said:

TD	YD	Title (Click to View)	Studio	Daily Gross	% +/- YD / LW		Theaters / Avg		Gross To-Date	Day
1	1	Star Trek Beyond	Par.	$4,906,308	-30%	-	3,928	$1,249	$77,417,552	6
2	2	The Secret Life of Pets	Uni.	$3,800,200	-28%	-40%	4,048	$939	$274,221,090	20
3	-	Nerve	LGF	$3,727,584	-	-	2,538	$1,469	$3,727,584	1
4	4	Ghostbusters (2016)	Sony	$2,251,502	-31%	-47%	3,693	$610	$94,318,168	13
5	5	Lights Out	WB (NL)	$2,240,160	-28%	-	2,818	$795	$29,890,309	6
6	3	Ice Age: Collision Course	Fox	$2,190,532	-37%	-	3,992	$549	$29,466,257	6
7	6	Finding Dory	BV	$1,038,228	-26%	-37%	2,500	$415	$463,803,528	41
8	7	The Legend of Tarzan	WB	$812,529	-28%	-41%	2,844	$286	$118,814,438	27
9	9	Hillary's America: The Secret History of the Democratic Party	QF	$520,903	-14%	+12,285%	1,217	$428	$5,729,459	13
10	8	Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates	Fox	$506,028	-30%	-51%	1,896	$267	$42,207,496	20
11	11	The Infiltrator	BG	$302,570	-24%	-40%	1,537	$197	$13,325,514	15
12	12	Central Intelligence	WB (NL)	$260,311	-33%	-61%	1,602	$162	$124,122,714	41
-	-	The Purge: Election Year	Uni.	$224,020	-31%	-70%	1,503	$149	$77,506,520	27
-	-	Absolutely Fabulous: The Movie	FoxS	$175,632	-11%	-	313	$561	$2,418,053	6
-	-	The BFG	BV	$172,201	-19%	-72%	620	$278	$51,522,199	27
-	-	Independence Day: Resurgence	Fox	$95,643	-32%	-77%	589	$162	$101,578,677	34

 

Pets is still 12M ahead of Inside Out, and thanks to Minions hitting IO this weekend in its run, it should finish the weekend 11-12M ahead still. 300M looks likely for next Tuesday/Wednesday. Ghostbusters is now 1.3M behind The Heat after opening 7M higher, will most likely end the weekend around 4-5M behind it. Tarzan and Dory continue chugging along, Central Intelligence and Tarzan in a close battle for leggiest live action summer release.

[Thegun]

28 is best case for ST at this point, most likely looking at 25-26

Edited July 28, 2016 by Thegun

[mahnamahna]

27 minutes ago, MinaTakla said:

Any updated predictions for Pets total by end of run? 

$10 million ($314 million)

$5 million ($322 million)

$3 million ($326 million)

$2 million ($328 million)

$2.75 million/$3.5 million ($332 million)

$340 million DOM

 

If Suicide Squad does $125 million+ OW, everything will get hurt. Pete's Dragon is in Pets' demo. Kubo will get double features with Pets, so it should hold okay. And Labor Day, plus second-run theaters should get Pets to $340-345 million IMO.

 

How about you? 

[a2k]

16 minutes ago, Tele Loves Bay & Twilight said:

 

I don't know a single person who expected it to even get close to STID, let alone match it.

 

Yeah I agree. But 37-38, maybe 40, behind by 2nd weekend is not much to celebrate either.

Thought 65/185 was on the cards. Looking at 165 I guess. Which is ok.

I don't where it leaves the 4th one. That won't have a lesser budget than this one.

[Plain Old Tele]

2 minutes ago, a2knet said:

 

Yeah I agree. But 37-38, maybe 40, behind by 2nd weekend is not much to celebrate either.

Thought 65/185 was on the cards. Looking at 165 I guess. Which is ok.

I don't where it leaves the 4th one. That won't have a lesser budget than this one.

 

Yes, it's okay. Solid, even. Not super-exciting, but there it is.

 

We don't really have a clue about what the fourth one will be, budgetarily. It's probably worth holding off on any assumptions for that -- except for a huge budget increase, I suppose.

[grim22]

11 minutes ago, Tele Loves Bay & Twilight said:

 

Yes, it's okay. Solid, even. Not super-exciting, but there it is.

 

This summer movie season in a nutshell. Audiences have just failed to get excited for the large majority of the movies. I thought Ghostbusters could have been a big pop culture event, it had everything - nostalgia, decent to good reviews, and a raging controversy which got more eyes on it, turned out the vast majority of people just didn't care about that controversy. No live action movie has captured the zeitgeist at large so far this summer.

[grim22]

Huge TC incoming

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

> NEW RELEASES
1	-	Jason Bourne	Universal	4,026	-	-	1
5	-	Bad Moms	STX Entertainment	3,215	-	-	1
8	8	Nerve	Lionsgate	2,538	-	-	1
26	-	League of Gods	Columbia	54	-	-	1
35	-	Into the Forest	A24	15	-	-	1
37	-	Viral	Weinstein / Dimension	11	-	-	1
40	-	Equity	Sony Classics	4	-	-	1
41	-	The Land	IFC	2	-	-	1
> EXPANDING
2	2	Ice Age: Collision Course	Fox	3,997	+5	+0.1%	2
7	6	Lights Out	Warner Bros. (New Line)	2,835	+17	+0.6%	2
15	18	Absolutely Fabulous: The Movie	Fox Searchlight	355	+42	+13.4%	2
17	22	The Conjuring 2	Warner Bros. (New Line)	244	+9	+3.8%	8
22	29	Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows	Paramount	170	+56	+49.1%	9
23	38	Alice Through the Looking Glass	Buena Vista	146	+68	+87.2%	10
38	85	De Palma	A24	4	+2	+100.0%	8
> NO CHANGE
3	4	Star Trek Beyond	Paramount	3,928	-	-	2
34	54	Our Little Sister	Sony Classics	20	-	-	4
> DECLINING
4	1	The Secret Life of Pets	Universal	3,673	-375	-9.3%	4
6	3	Ghostbusters (2016)	Sony / Columbia	3,052	-911	-23.0%	3
9	7	Finding Dory	Buena Vista	1,733	-843	-32.7%	7
10	5	The Legend of Tarzan	Warner Bros.	1,503	-1,341	-47.2%	5
11	9	Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates	Fox	1,070	-1,067	-49.9%	4
12	14	Hillary's America: The Secret History of the Democratic Party	Quality Flix	1,066	-151	-12.4%	3
13	11	Central Intelligence	Warner Bros. (New Line)	652	-950	-59.3%	7
14	10	The Purge: Election Year	Universal	503	-1,198	-70.4%	5
16	16	The BFG	Buena Vista	273	-413	-60.2%	5
18	15	Independence Day: Resurgence	Fox	227	-503	-68.9%	6
19	23	The Jungle Book (2016)	Buena Vista	225	-8	-3.4%	16
20	20	Me Before You	Warner Bros. (New Line)	188	-66	-26.0%	9
21	25	Hunt for the Wilderpeople	The Orchard	174	-26	-13.0%	6
24	17	The Shallows	Sony / Columbia	139	-374	-72.9%	6

 

Big drops for Ghostbusters, Dory, Tarzan, Purge, and Mike and Dave.

[a2k]

I want to go back in time and start the TJB Over (BFG + ICE AGE 5 + ID:R + ALICE 2 + NEIGHBORS 2) club

 

Those films combined will do ~355 btw. PETS could go over too (small shot).

Edited July 28, 2016 by a2knet

[a2k]

5 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

> NEW RELEASES
1	-	Jason Bourne	Universal	4,026	-	-	1
5	-	Bad Moms	STX Entertainment	3,215	-	-	1
8	8	Nerve	Lionsgate	2,538	-	-	1
26	-	League of Gods	Columbia	54	-	-	1
35	-	Into the Forest	A24	15	-	-	1
37	-	Viral	Weinstein / Dimension	11	-	-	1
40	-	Equity	Sony Classics	4	-	-	1
41	-	The Land	IFC	2	-	-	1
> EXPANDING
2	2	Ice Age: Collision Course	Fox	3,997	+5	+0.1%	2
7	6	Lights Out	Warner Bros. (New Line)	2,835	+17	+0.6%	2
15	18	Absolutely Fabulous: The Movie	Fox Searchlight	355	+42	+13.4%	2
17	22	The Conjuring 2	Warner Bros. (New Line)	244	+9	+3.8%	8
22	29	Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows	Paramount	170	+56	+49.1%	9
23	38	Alice Through the Looking Glass	Buena Vista	146	+68	+87.2%	10
38	85	De Palma	A24	4	+2	+100.0%	8
> NO CHANGE
3	4	Star Trek Beyond	Paramount	3,928	-	-	2
34	54	Our Little Sister	Sony Classics	20	-	-	4
> DECLINING
4	1	The Secret Life of Pets	Universal	3,673	-375	-9.3%	4
6	3	Ghostbusters (2016)	Sony / Columbia	3,052	-911	-23.0%	3
9	7	Finding Dory	Buena Vista	1,733	-843	-32.7%	7
10	5	The Legend of Tarzan	Warner Bros.	1,503	-1,341	-47.2%	5
11	9	Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates	Fox	1,070	-1,067	-49.9%	4
12	14	Hillary's America: The Secret History of the Democratic Party	Quality Flix	1,066	-151	-12.4%	3
13	11	Central Intelligence	Warner Bros. (New Line)	652	-950	-59.3%	7
14	10	The Purge: Election Year	Universal	503	-1,198	-70.4%	5
16	16	The BFG	Buena Vista	273	-413	-60.2%	5
18	15	Independence Day: Resurgence	Fox	227	-503	-68.9%	6
19	23	The Jungle Book (2016)	Buena Vista	225	-8	-3.4%	16
20	20	Me Before You	Warner Bros. (New Line)	188	-66	-26.0%	9
21	25	Hunt for the Wilderpeople	The Orchard	174	-26	-13.0%	6
24	17	The Shallows	Sony / Columbia	139	-374	-72.9%	6

 

Big drops for Ghostbusters, Dory, Tarzan, Purge, and Mike and Dave.

 

Big drop for CI too.

[grim22]

6 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

> NEW RELEASES
1	-	Jason Bourne	Universal	4,026	-	-	1
5	-	Bad Moms	STX Entertainment	3,215	-	-	1
8	8	Nerve	Lionsgate	2,538	-	-	1
26	-	League of Gods	Columbia	54	-	-	1
35	-	Into the Forest	A24	15	-	-	1
37	-	Viral	Weinstein / Dimension	11	-	-	1
40	-	Equity	Sony Classics	4	-	-	1
41	-	The Land	IFC	2	-	-	1
> EXPANDING
2	2	Ice Age: Collision Course	Fox	3,997	+5	+0.1%	2
7	6	Lights Out	Warner Bros. (New Line)	2,835	+17	+0.6%	2
15	18	Absolutely Fabulous: The Movie	Fox Searchlight	355	+42	+13.4%	2
17	22	The Conjuring 2	Warner Bros. (New Line)	244	+9	+3.8%	8
22	29	Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows	Paramount	170	+56	+49.1%	9
23	38	Alice Through the Looking Glass	Buena Vista	146	+68	+87.2%	10
38	85	De Palma	A24	4	+2	+100.0%	8
> NO CHANGE
3	4	Star Trek Beyond	Paramount	3,928	-	-	2
34	54	Our Little Sister	Sony Classics	20	-	-	4
> DECLINING
4	1	The Secret Life of Pets	Universal	3,673	-375	-9.3%	4
6	3	Ghostbusters (2016)	Sony / Columbia	3,052	-911	-23.0%	3
9	7	Finding Dory	Buena Vista	1,733	-843	-32.7%	7
10	5	The Legend of Tarzan	Warner Bros.	1,503	-1,341	-47.2%	5
11	9	Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates	Fox	1,070	-1,067	-49.9%	4
12	14	Hillary's America: The Secret History of the Democratic Party	Quality Flix	1,066	-151	-12.4%	3
13	11	Central Intelligence	Warner Bros. (New Line)	652	-950	-59.3%	7
14	10	The Purge: Election Year	Universal	503	-1,198	-70.4%	5
16	16	The BFG	Buena Vista	273	-413	-60.2%	5
18	15	Independence Day: Resurgence	Fox	227	-503	-68.9%	6
19	23	The Jungle Book (2016)	Buena Vista	225	-8	-3.4%	16
20	20	Me Before You	Warner Bros. (New Line)	188	-66	-26.0%	9
21	25	Hunt for the Wilderpeople	The Orchard	174	-26	-13.0%	6
24	17	The Shallows	Sony / Columbia	139	-374	-72.9%	6

 

Big drops for Ghostbusters, Dory, Tarzan, Purge, and Mike and Dave.

 

Wow, Ghostbusters losing almost 1000 theaters in weekend 3. Its not doing that badly to drop a fourth of its theaters. Wonder what effect Bad Moms will have this weekend.

[Planodisney]

Wow at that theater hold for Pets with all these new releases.  

340-345 total is my estimate.  It's losing a million a day to IO everyday, but should have a temporary rebound next week as that was the 1 week when IO's holds were softer because of Minions opening.

But IO had incredible holds after that and Pets won't be able to match.  It won't be a 12 million difference by the end of the weekend but around 10.

The kicker though, is that IO had a HUGE expansion back into 2500 theaters at the end of its run for 2 weeks that got it an extra 7 million

that doesnt figure into current daily tracking at all.  

So looking at all of that I think makes 340-345 a pretty good bet for Pets.  Maybe a touch higher.

For me, one of the most impressive runs we've seen in a while.  I'll be the first to admit I didn't see it holding this well.  

 

Edited July 28, 2016 by Planodisney

[miketheavenger]

1 hour ago, grim22 said:

Huge TC incoming

 

 

Isn't that the widest August release ever or did GOTG have more Theaters?

[grim22]

1 minute ago, miketheavenger said:

Isn't that the widest August release ever or did GOTG have more Theaters?

 

GOTG was 4088 theaters. This would be the widest August release ever.

[miketheavenger]

2 hours ago, grim22 said:

 

GOTG was 4088 theaters. This would be the widest August release ever.

With that I see this playing a lot like BvS if early reactions are any indication. Huge opening ($125m+), but horrible legs.

[MinaTakla]

6 hours ago, mahnamahna said:

$10 million ($314 million)

$5 million ($322 million)

$3 million ($326 million)

$2 million ($328 million)

$2.75 million/$3.5 million ($332 million)

$340 million DOM

 

If Suicide Squad does $125 million+ OW, everything will get hurt. Pete's Dragon is in Pets' demo. Kubo will get double features with Pets, so it should hold okay. And Labor Day, plus second-run theaters should get Pets to $340-345 million IMO.

 

How about you? 

Thanks! 340-345m is where am seeing it right now too:)

[a2k]

PETS is on track to beat ZOOTP unless it has an unexpectedly bigger fall soon.

That is just amazing. ZOOTP itself had an unreal run and for PETS to beat it humbles bo predictors.

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, a2knet said:

PETS is on track to beat ZOOTP unless it has an unexpectedly bigger fall soon.

That is just amazing. ZOOTP itself had an unreal run and for PETS to beat it humbles bo predictors.

 

Zoo's OW was way lower and so what is crazy here is Pets OW. its legs are good but nothing out of the world. I dont know if it will have better multi than Dory.

[a2k]

Date (click to view chart)	Rank	Weekend Gross	% Change	Theaters	Change / Avg.		Gross-to-Date	Week #
Jul 31–Aug 2	1	$55,520,089	-	3,956	-	$14,034	$55,520,089	1
Aug 7–9	1	$28,502,372	-48.7%	3,988	+32	$7,147	$107,756,579	2
Aug 14–16	2	$17,186,540	-39.7%	3,700	-288	$4,645	$138,323,095	3
Aug 21–23	2	$11,451,746	-33.4%	3,442	-258	$3,327	$157,514,785	4
Aug 28–30	3	$8,155,581	-28.8%	3,095	-347	$2,635	$170,242,111	5
Sep 4–6	5	$7,236,006	-11.3%	2,849	-246	$2,540	$180,472,698	6
Sep 4–7	4	$9,425,519	+15.6%	2,849	-246	$3,308	$182,662,211	6
Sep 11–13	5	$4,100,405	-43.3%	2,649	-200	$1,548	$188,122,923	7
Sep 18–20	8	$2,213,360	-46.0%	2,202	-447	$1,005	$191,695,570	8
Sep 25–27	13	$901,617	-59.3%	840	-1,362	$1,073	$193,455,919	9
Oct 2–4	18	$332,885	-63.1%	377	-463	$883	$194,109,254	10
Oct 9–11	22	$294,305	-11.6%	335	-42	$879	$194,522,893	11
Oct 16–18	24	$175,733	-40.3%	244	-91	$720	$194,829,972	12
Oct 23–25	33	$103,728	-41.0%	151	-93	$687	$195,000,874	13

 

Interesting how short Paramount kept the late legs of a movie which would probably have lingered for a long time.

 

2.2 weekend taking it to 191.7. Added just 3.3 more in the rest of the run.

[a2k]

4 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

Zoo's OW was way lower and so what is crazy here is Pets OW. its legs are good but nothing out of the world. I dont know if it will have better multi than Dory.

 

Yeah I agree. If PETS does 345M, it's multi will be 3.3x.

If DORY does 490M, it's multi will be 3.63x.

IO was 3.96x, ZOOTP 4.56x, MINIONS was 2.9x.

So PETS legs are good but not great for an animation.

Though even after it's OW, I was expecting 3.0-3.1x for 313-323M.

Maybe was surprised at the size of the OW and expected a big correction which never came.

So personally, even the legs surprise me despite not being anything special.

 

Edited July 29, 2016 by a2knet