SUICIDE SQUAD WEEKEND THREAD | New REVISED SUNDAY NUMBER 134m FROM GURU ON PG 212 | 267.1M WW OW | Nine Lives 6.5 OW |No Spoilers Allowed!!! | ACCOUNT SALES THIS WEEKEND - see first post for details !!

[Maitch]

Here is some internet Box Office math:

 

If you like the film / studio / franchise / IP:

The movie breaks even if WW is 2x the budget.

 

If you don't like the film / studio / franchise / IP:

1. Randomly add 50-60m to the budget. Say something about reshoots - not realizing that all tentpoles movies have reshoots and it is actually being planned way ahead of the in the time schedule, so that they can be sure the actors are available for the reshoots.
2. Add a marketing budget of 300m (the number is out of thin air).
3. Studios only earn 50% of DOM og 35-40% of OS.

Of course this way, no movies besides Star Wars and Avatar earns any money. I just guess film studios just keep making movies for the fun of it.

 

 

[Water Bottle]

58 minutes ago, Tele the Jet Baller said:

 

Scott Mendelson is the Cinemascore of online box-office discussion.

 

edit: it's even worse, his argument is basically "I hated it and it was awful and therefore it is worse for DC than BVS, which I also hated (though not as much)."

 

Scott Mendelson. Isn't he the guy who said that The Force Awakens being a super mega-blockbuster was bad news for Hollywood and signaled the end of the industry and yada yada yada? All because he thought TFA couldn't go over $200 million OW and break the record because he didn't think the theater count was high enough or somethin'.

[wildphantom]

Mendelson - don't agree with his assessment at all personally. 

The film works better than the theatrical cut of BvS. It isn't great, but it's enjoyable and the characters are there. It isn't anywhere near a disaster. 

 

For me I'm astounded at how over the top the negativity is towards this movie. 

Its not as good as it could have been, sure. Yet there's been way worse major films this summer that Mendelson hasn't written 'take-down' essays about. 

[Johnny Tran]

Is it as simple as DC columns receive more clicks?  You could write a bunch of bullshit about Independence Day or Ninja Turtles or Ghostbusters or maybe now even Star Trek but it probably wouldn't lead to anyone giving enough of a crap to click/talk about it.

[a2k]

2 hours ago, Tele the Jet Baller said:

 

This article here (written by a producer) says "Studios received an average of 53% of the box office gross domestically and 41% of the international gross." That's an average, and I don't think we should take it as absolute gospel, but it's a better figure than the usual vagaries we've heard.

 

 

Even using only 2x for DOM and OS, along with those averages:

 

SS will get 53% of 267 = 141.5M from DOM and 41% of 266 = 109M of OS.

 

That's 141.5  +109 = 250.5M for WB from a 533M WW gross.

 

Assuming budget was 175 prod + 175 marketing = 350M, it leaves only 99.5M more to get from auxiliary sources.

 

This calc is overly simplistic and flawed, but if anything, it's flawed in that it's taking away from the studio.

 

Really with 600-650M ww, merchandising and revenue streams I am not aware of, the profits are going to be much easier. 

[Agafin]

Just now, Johnny Tran said:

 

And that only happens with WB of course. No other studio goes over the listed budget.

 

You people should stop with this persecution complex. This has nothing to do with WB/DC and happens to every studio. Two years ago, GotG (which is the closest comparison to SS) was released at this exact same date and was reported by Mojo to have a budget of $170m (in fact, Mojo still lists this as the budget). Months later, Disney reported that the movie had actually gone overbudget and has an actual production budget of $232m.

 

If GotG went over budget by over $60m and actually costs $232m, then how is SS having an actual production budget $250m any surprise? Especially considering the fact that it alledgely underwent several weeks of reshoots? Or are we supposed to believe that SS actual buget was like $100m or so before those? 

 

When you take into account the fact that SS almost certainly had a much bigger P&A costs than movies of similar production budgets (I mean, this was marketed to hell and back) and what its actual prod budget might have been, the $750m to $800m break even point reported by HR seems perfectly reasonable to me. At the end of the day, they are talking about what it needs to be a theatrical success, not when all the other revenue sources are included.

[a2k]

10 hours ago, Johnny Tran said:

 

Which would put it ~ $215M after it's second weekend.    Some said Saturday night that it won't hit $200M total.  lol

 

Yeah, if it crashes it will get to 270 :

 

With Tele's % from Mon-Thu (which IMO were middling and not optimistic), it will do 176.2 in week 1.

 

Say it falls 71% from the 133.7m ow and gets 38.8m in 2nd weekend. 176.2 + 38.8 = 215 after 2nd weekend.

 

Say a 60% drop in the following Mon-Thu and a 60% drop in the 3rd weekend will put it at 215 + 17 (Mon-Thu week 2) + 15.5 (FSS weekend 3) = 247.5 by weekend 3.

 

Another 60% drop in the following Mon-Thu and one more 60% weekend drop will put it at 247.5 + 7 + 6.2 = 261.2 by weekend 4

 

Another 60% drop in the following Mon-Thu and one more 60% weekend drop will put it at 261.2 + 3 + 2.5 = 266.7 by weekend 5 (this is actually the Labor Day weekend I think)

 

Summer is over. 70% drop from Mon-Thu (Mon is holiday so will compensate) and 70% drop from 3-day weekend is 266.7 + 0.9 + 0.75 = 268.35 by 6th weekend.

 

6th week was 0.9 + 0.75 = 1.65. 1.65 more from all the remaining weekdays and weekends combined including dollar bump gives 268.35 + 1.65 = 270 dom.

 

I don't think I have been optimistic .

[Krissykins]

Sick of all this talk of costs! Studios need to reduce budgets next year.

 

Can we all remember the importance of home revenue worldwide.

 

Fifty Shades of Grey made another $270,000,000 worldwide from home entertainment.

 

Studios don't expect to cover all of the budget and advertising just from theatrical for every film.

[Krissykins]

2 hours ago, Maitch said:

Here is some internet Box Office math:

 

If you like the film / studio / franchise / IP:

The movie breaks even if WW is 2x the budget.

 

If you don't like the film / studio / franchise / IP:

1. Randomly add 50-60m to the budget. Say something about reshoots - not realizing that all tentpoles movies have reshoots and it is actually being planned way ahead of the in the time schedule, so that they can be sure the actors are available for the reshoots.
2. Add a marketing budget of 300m (the number is out of thin air).
3. Studios only earn 50% of DOM og 35-40% of OS.

Of course this way, no movies besides Star Wars and Avatar earns any money. I just guess film studios just keep making movies for the fun of it.

 

 

 

 

THANK YOU!!!!

 

Yes to all of this. Mods, sticky this persons post. Force every member to read it. 10 times. Every day. 

[Rthmessiah]

 

I came I saw 

 

SUICIDE SQUAD WEEKEND THREAD

FILM BUDGET THREAD

 

ran away

 

[Rthmessiah]

[ZattMurdock]

6 minutes ago, Rth said:

 

Holy shit, $13m monday? Alright I need my cofees this is gun' to be gud

[Krissykins]

$13m (if it is) would be a fantastic hold of about 56%

 

Recent first Monday drops:

Jason Bourne -60.8%
Bad Moms -55%
Star Trek -61.7%
Ghostbusters -60.7%
Secret Life of Pets -59.4%

 

Thanks @Rth love these hints.
 

[ZattMurdock]

2 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

$13m (if it is) would be a fantastic hold of about 56%

 

Recent first Monday drops:

Jason Bourne -60.8%
Bad Moms -55%
Star Trek -61.7%
Ghostbusters -60.7%
Secret Life of Pets -59.4%

 

Thanks @Rth love these hints.
 

It'd be actually a better drop than Civil War and BvS. It isn't better than Deadpool but that was a holiday. Almost as good as Guardians 54% drop for Monday. Impressive.

[ZattMurdock]

Coffee and @Rtheimdall's cover games for a Tuesday morning. Now if this otitis could just stop messing with my right ear that would be even greater. But I'll take what I can get.

Edited August 9, 2016 by iJackSparrow

[Krissykins]

13 minutes ago, iJackSparrow said:

It'd be actually a better drop than Civil War and BvS. It isn't better than Deadpool but that was a holiday. Almost as good as Guardians 54% drop for Monday. Impressive.

 

Well BVS was 55.5% but that was a holiday (or was it?).

 

Still, this looks quite promising.

[ZattMurdock]

4 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

 

Well BVS was 55.5% but that was a holiday (or was it?).

 

Still, this looks quite promising.

Yes. It's Summer days, so the pattern I think we should pay attention to is Guardians. It's not looking bad. And unlike @James that was expecting SS to open north to $200m, I do have a good reading on social media and I think that the Squad really hit a nerve with the GA. People are talking a lot about the film, and that means that at least for now, I can see it having some sexy holds. How it'll hold up two weeks from now it's the question, but I actually think it'll have decent to surprising good holds this week/weekend.

[a2k]

hopefully doesn't do much less than,

 

13 + 14.5 + 10 + 8.8 = 46.3 Mon-Thu (133.7 ow + 46.3 Mon-Thu = 180 week 1)

 

So 2nd weekend should put it past 220.

Which would leave it looking at 285-305 imo.

 

[a2k]

13.0 would be a 56.96% from 30.21.

Was expecting 55-60%. 57% is a solid hold.

[UrosepsisFace]

Ok, so let me get this straight, by tomorrow, Suicide Squad (175m budget) will have easily surpassed X-Men: Apocalypse (178m budget), but in the eye of the shareholder, that's a disaster? This movie will rocket its studios market share into second place, and this will be worrisome? Suicide Squad's legs will possibly make more money than any non-Disney/SLOP blockbuster total gross this summer, which includes ID:R, STB, Ghostbusters, and Jason Bourne, and this shows it to be a disaster? The influence of RT has reached the level of affecting box-office perception it seems. 

 

These poor DCEU legs are supposed to equate to nobody showing up for these movies eventually, yet, their legs average to over 160m per movie. Marvel's best movie, imo, The Winter Solider, only had that much on legs, and Suicide Squad should easily make more money than that movie. Heck, Ant-Man's full run was 180m. 

 

Anyway, I guess we can continue the narrative that this is a failure until the next movie breaks 100m OW and has about 160m legs, at which point we'll make the same conclusions that it has failed and the next movie will show that...