Weekend Thread | Estimates SS 43.7m, SP 33.6m, PD 21.5, JCIJB 13.6m, BM 11.45m, SLOP 8.8m, STD 6.8m, FFJ 6.58m

[picores]

10 minutes ago, a2knet said:

 

Yeah. Looking at O/U 650M ?

It's OS weekdays were solid (133 OW + 58.5 Mon-Thu = 191.5 week 1)

 

My guess atm would be 650-700 WW. We'll know better in 30 hours or so

[Ent]

4 minutes ago, Thrylos 7 said:

No mate it is not . It's dropping like a rock overseas, doesn't have China and won't reach 300 million in the u.s . It might just reach that but it is faaaaaar from a lock . Aren't people tired of all the optimistic predictions about DC movies that never materialize ? But hey I thought that civil war would do 1.5 billion so who am I to talk about optimistic predictions ? 

 

Anyway I predict dr.strange doing better than SS worldwide .

 

I personally think it will do around $650M, MOS type of numbers.

 

The thing i have noticed with DCEU movies so far is that they usually do poorer than their somewhat counterparts properties/characters from Marvel movies (be it from Marvel Studio or Fox) abroad.

 

DC characters have that stronger recognition in the US but as a whole seem slightly lesser appealing than Marvel ones on the foreign front where the later are usually much stronger in the asian market which makes their foreign revenues usually stronger compared to more or less equal properties from DC.

 

You are more likely to have an IM movie being stronger on the foreign side than a Batman movie whle domestically, it's the other way around.  Same for a CA movie versus a Superman movie.

 

Usually DC and Marvel characters tend to do more or less the same between the european and south american continent but the asian continent lean very clearly towards Marvel characters most of the times, especially when comparing to the big three (South Korea, Japan and China)

 

For example SS is currently having a 85% drop in South Korea from its opening weekend, something you don't usually see with Marvel movies at this stage.

[efialtes76]

52 minutes ago, Thrylos 7 said:

SS will really struggle to get to 600 million WW, if it even manages that . So much for all the marketing $$$$ . Maybe WB should donate some of the money it uses to promote its DC movies to charity , built some hospitals and schools or something .

[CJohn]

Suicide Squad is lucky because it wont suffer another 65%+ drop on his 4th weekend like BvS did because of Jungle Book and it has the Labor Day weekend on his 5th weekend, or else this was gonna be another 2.0× multiplier for the DCEU. The WOM is clearly pretty bad.

[UrosepsisFace]

For a forum dedicated to box-office receipts, I thought we'd be able to define toxic WOM better. So far, I'm given examples that were the top earners of their year.

 

 

7 hours ago, Jayhawk said:

Godzilla (I really like it though)

That's barely above 200m DOM, not even close to above 290m.

 

7 hours ago, Maxmoser3 said:

Mixed films at best. Man Of Steel, Alice In Wonderland, BVS, Star Wars prequels(episodes I-III), Pirates 3, Shrek 3, Spider-Man 3, Minions.

 

Mixed at best? I'm going to have to disagree. Maybe somewhat mixed, but leaning on the more positive side to reach over 300m DOM and even surpassing 1B DOM.

 

7 hours ago, Nova said:

Someone just posted quite a few more. I just posted BvS because it's fresh in my mind lol 

 

I'd say those listed would be reaching to be considered mixed, hard anything close to TOXIC WOM. Minions for example, since it's the most recent one given, made over 220m after its opening weekend, always had weekend drops under 60%, and for the most part had weekend drops under 50%. If this is an example of TOXIC WOM, then I'm assuming every movie has TOXIC WOM.

 

7 hours ago, AJ2k said:

Any Transformers movie. 

 

Let's use Dark of the Moon for example. It made over 230m after its opening weekend. Never had a drop over 55% until about 2 months after its debut. Had multiple sub 50% drops. Subsequent movie crossed 100m OW just like the previous 3 and was the only 1B WW of its year, and top earner of all 2014 movies WW. 

Edited August 13, 2016 by UrosepsisFace

[BluRayHiDef]

SS beaten by SP? WTF? This is like BvS beaing beaten by The Boss all over again, but worse because it's only the second weekend instead of the third. Damn. I hope SS pulls through and earns 24M today. 

 

One can dream.

[Noctis]

2 minutes ago, BluRayHiDef said:

SS beaten by SP? WTF? This is like BvS beaing beaten by The Boss all over again, but worse because it's only the second weekend instead of the third. Damn. I hope SS pulls through and earns 24M today. 

 

One can dream.

 

24m?! 

[BluRayHiDef]

Just now, Noctis said:

 

24m?! 

 

As I said, one can dream.

[Noctis]

3 minutes ago, BluRayHiDef said:

 

As I said, one can dream.

 

Dream all you want because Suicide Squad is CRASHING

[POTUS 2020]

8 minutes ago, BluRayHiDef said:

SS beaten by SP? WTF? This is like BvS beaing beaten by The Boss all over again, but worse because it's only the second weekend instead of the third. Damn. I hope SS pulls through and earns 24M today. 

 

One can dream.

What are you talking about? SP will be flat or drop today. SS will bump 40-50%. 

SS has the weekend by 10m

[The Futurist]

2 minutes ago, Noctis said:

 

Dream all you want because Suicide Squad is CRASHING

 

Suicide is alienating audiences.

[baumer]

7 hours ago, The Panda said:

So, what was it about that 75-80% Friday jump and 50m weekend all of that historical data was pointing to @Baumer loves Dory ?

 

Look I was wrong and it did not go up 75%. But historical data was not wrong. Films in the second week of August had increased by that amount. You can't say I was wrong on that.... that part was right. I was obviously wrong thinking that Suicide Squad will follow the same pattern. So congratulations you guys are alright... go ahead and gloat. I don't understand why there was so much of vitriol and anger towards me when I was just posting facts. It didn't have to turn into some big freaking War I was just showing you guys that movies had increased by that amount on the second Friday in August. Suicide Squad did not and therefore you were right and I was wrong.

[CJohn]

3 minutes ago, Baumer loves Dory said:

 

Look I was wrong and it did not go up 75%. But historical data was not wrong. Films in the second week of August had increased by that amount. You can't say I was wrong on that.... that part was right. I was obviously wrong thinking that Suicide Squad will follow the same pattern. So congratulations you guys are alright... go ahead and gloat. I don't understand why there was so much of vitriol and anger towards me when I was just posting facts. It didn't have to turn into some big freaking War I was just showing you guys that movies had increased by that amount on the second Friday in August. Suicide Squad did not and therefore you were right and I was wrong.

You know what is coming B.

 

[baumer]

So it looks like 45 million is the very high-end For Suicide Squad now for this weekend.

[baumer]

Yes I have two more name changes coming and I will own another $10 to the site as well. I might as well just change my name for the rest of the year LOL

[UrosepsisFace]

If Deadline is correct about their predictions for Suicide Squad, they're basically saying

 

Suicide Squad 2nd weekend: 13, 16, 13 ~= 42 and a 1st place finish

 

vs

 

Man of Steel 2nd weekend: 12.5, 16, 12.5 ~= 41 and a 3rd place finish

 

vs

 

Guardians of the Galaxy 2nd weekend: 12, 17, 13 ~= 42 and a 2nd place finish

 

Top two will be considered toxic WOM, and the last example is the best WOM of any MCU movie according to some detractors. Anybody want to make the conclusion that maybe the DCEU films are doing as expected, very consistently, and following a front-loaded pattern based on heavy excitement from a built-in fan-base with similar re-watch pattern and consistently similar pattern of new curious GA? The three DCEU films will have consistently had the same amount of legs (160-170m) following record breaking OWs.

[a2k]

1 hour ago, CJohn said:

Suicide Squad is lucky because it wont suffer another 65%+ drop on his 4th weekend like BvS did because of Jungle Book and it has the Labor Day weekend on his 5th weekend, or else this was gonna be another 2.0× multiplier for the DCEU. The WOM is clearly pretty bad.

 

2x is 267.5M.

If it does say, 270 final dom, one can say that Labour Day helped it get 2x. But not when it's gonna cross 2x in the 4th weekend itself and go north of 290.

 

[baumer]

It's still doing 300.

[Agafin]

I can't believe how utterly wrong I was on Pets. The steep second weekend drop was really more indicative of Illumination's great marketing rather than bad WOM. It's WOM is great. On par with the first Despicable Me at least.

[CJohn]

I still cant believe people thought Pets was gonna have poor legs lol.