Derby derby derby! Heads down! Stay down! | Week 38

[AndyLL]

http://derby.boxofficetheory.com/Predictions.aspx

[Rolling Thunder]

Will @Batescontinue his hot streak as Derby...Master? 

[POTUS 2020]

2 hours ago, Rolling Thunder said:

Will @Batescontinue his hot streak as Derby...Master? 

MasterBates

Nice

Maybe Connie Lingus will win next week. 

[POTUS 2020]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bPzds4qafgPN4Gg0I2MVEegn8Ur0T49JhS8e_31mPkM/edit?usp=sharing

Derby sheet

[ChipDerby]

Well I think I'm screwed on Snowden.

[Rolling Thunder]

28 minutes ago, ChipMunky said:

Well I think I'm screwed on Snowden.

 

As am I, went with $5.3m.  I'm fine with it, though - saw no viable reason for it open higher than Jobs.  Oliver Stone factor and the upcoming election probably gave it a little bump because the reviews aren't strong enough to attract fence-sitters.

[TalismanRing]

1 hour ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

As am I, went with $5.3m.  I'm fine with it, though - saw no viable reason for it open higher than Jobs.  Oliver Stone factor and the upcoming election probably gave it a little bump because the reviews aren't strong enough to attract fence-sitters.

 

I went low too but could possibly miss $6m even off a 2.7m Friday.  That Friday not only has 360k in Thur previews but the $ rolled in from Weds 800 Theater Fathom events that were reportedly sold out.

[POTUS 2020]

Fugly, Fugly, Fugly

Deadline is definitely off on some projections, and fri est could be way off too with the report coming out at 9:21pm pdt, but I don't think scores will improve much. There will be some shifting around in the top ten but @JMorphin  will take it with his low picks on the bombs. 

 

1    JMorphin    80.11
2    Bates    74.99
3    Padre    74.89
4    Simionski    72.88
5    Blankments    72.54
6    Horror Wizard    72.45
7    Tower    72.38
8    Wildbill    72.04
9    CJohn    71.93
10    WrathOfHan    69.36
11    Rolling Thunder    69.23
12    Exxdee    69.12
13    Viceversa    69.11
14    No Prisoners    69.04
15    Boxx93    68.29
16    Matrix4You    68.12
17    AABATTERY    67.81
18    CoolEric258    67.5
19    TalismanRing    67.26
20    luxneji    66.73
21    ChipMunky    65.8
22    boxofficeth    65.61
23    8wombi7    65.43
24    kayumanggi    64.48
25    darkelf    64.45
26    RandomJC    64.19
27    PanaMovie    63.91
28    moviecriticguy    62.55
29    Fanboy    62.36
30    Lights Camera Action    62.36
31    Wonka    55.3

[JMorphin]

I totally messed up Snowden, though.  I thought it would pull a Blackhat

[Rolling Thunder]

Two weeks in a row at 69% - got ya'll shaking in your boots! 

 

WTH happened last night?  It's like everyone stopped going to the movies when the matinees ended.

[POTUS 2020]

Scores haven't improved much with estimates while @JMorphin pulls farther ahead. Tourney Final is a tight race.

1    JMorphin    83.26
2    Bates    76.98
3    Padre    76.08
4    Horror Wizard    74.32
5    Wildbill    74
6    Simionski    72.84
7    Blankments    72.76
8    CJohn    72.56
9    WrathOfHan    71.91
10    Tower    71.46
11    Rolling Thunder    71.31
12    Exxdee    70.19
13    Boxx93    70.16
14    Viceversa    69.92
15    AABATTERY    69.78
16    TalismanRing    69.25
17    Matrix4You    69.21
18    No Prisoners    68.79  Tourney Final
19    CoolEric258    68.73
20    8wombi7    67.73  Tourney Final
21    luxneji    66.31
22    boxofficeth    66.27
23    kayumanggi    66.05
24    darkelf    65.5
25    ChipMunky    65.42
26    Fanboy    64.93
27    moviecriticguy    64.65
28    PanaMovie    64.01
29    RandomJC    63.83
30    Lights Camera Action    63.66
31    Wonka    57.28
 

[PanaMovie]

That's a horrible score

 

Fuck BW and BJ

 

and WTF with Wild Life's hold??

[ChipDerby]

lol

[WrathOfHan]

How the fuck am I in the Top 10?  

[Fanboy]

Predicting over 20M for Bridget Jones was a terrible, terrible idea. Oh well, at least we can laugh at Blair Witch's box office.

[aabattery]

Whats the worst week the derby has ever had? This one might be up there. 

[WrathOfHan]

@AndyLL Actuals are in:

 

1	1	Sully	WB	$21,653,017	-38.2%	3,525	-	$6,143	$70,194,368	$60	2
2	N	Blair Witch	LGF	$9,576,057	-	3,121	-	$3,068	$9,576,057	$5	1
3	N	Bridget Jones's Baby	Uni.	$8,571,785	-	2,927	-	$2,929	$8,571,785	$35	1
4	N	Snowden	ORF	$8,000,058	-	2,443	-	$3,275	$8,000,058	$40	1
5	3	Don't Breathe	SGem	$5,640,232	-31.6%	3,208	-176	$1,758	$75,369,013	$9.9	4
6	2	When the Bough Breaks	SGem	$5,483,126	-61.4%	2,246	-	$2,441	$22,655,858	$10	2
7	4	Suicide Squad	WB	$4,701,834	-17.8%	2,740	-363	$1,716	$313,774,166	$175	7
8	5	The Wild Life (2016)	LG/S	$2,771,443	-17.1%	2,493	-	$1,112	$6,785,712	-	2
9	6	Kubo and the Two Strings	Focus	$2,540,031	-23.1%	1,757	-578	$1,446	$44,272,005	$60	5
10	7	Pete's Dragon (2016)	BV	$2,152,802	-30.6%	1,948	-737	$1,105	$72,917,327	$65	6

[CJohn]

I am not sure why I have returned tbh. My scores are a disaster since I came back.

[AndyLL]

Well... at least @JMorphin got into the 80s....

 

	Rank	Player	Total Score	New Release Score	Holdover Score	Difference from Avg. Score	Total Points	Predicted Movies

	1	JMorphin	80.493%	65.678%	86.843%	12.834%	31	10
	2	Padre	75.281%	51.411%	85.511%	7.621%	30	10
	3	Bates	74.347%	57.528%	81.555%	6.687%	29	10
	4	Blankments	72.371%	52.410%	80.926%	4.712%	28	10
	5	Horror Wizard	72.360%	49.559%	82.132%	4.700%	27	10
	6	Wildbill	72.289%	53.527%	80.329%	4.629%	26	10
	7	Simionski	71.111%	37.349%	85.580%	3.451%	25	10
	8	CJohn	69.987%	39.989%	82.843%	2.327%	24	10
	9	Tower	69.585%	41.380%	81.673%	1.926%	23	10
	10	AABATTERY	69.531%	39.435%	82.430%	1.872%	22	10
	11	Boxx93	69.398%	41.991%	81.144%	1.739%	21	10
	12	Exxdee	69.250%	37.352%	82.921%	1.591%	20	10
	13	Matrix4You	68.694%	35.643%	82.858%	1.034%	19	10
	14	WrathOfHan	68.452%	39.475%	80.871%	0.793%	18	10
	15	Viceversa	68.186%	33.929%	82.867%	0.526%	17	10
	16	Rolling Thunder	67.498%	29.300%	83.869%	-0.161%	16	10
	17	CoolEric258	66.569%	36.931%	79.271%	-1.090%	15	10
	18	luxneji	66.515%	44.102%	76.121%	-1.144%	14	10

[JMorphin]

It was a tough weekend, all.  September is historically my best month, so it's all good.  Derby average will start killing it again, I'm sure