PASSENGERS | 203.1 M overseas ● 303.1 M worldwide

[JennaJ]

On 5.2.2017 at 7:58 PM, JennaJ said:

Domestic:	$97,405,870	33.3%
+ Foreign:	$195,200,000	66.7%
= Worldwide:	$292,605,870

 

 

Finally updated with actuals:

 

Domestic:	$97,480,823	33.3%
+ Foreign:	$195,308,285	66.7%
= Worldwide:	$292,789,108

 

So it did slightly better than predicted OS. Hope it can keep inching its way up to 300m. Japan isn't until the end of March so we'll see where it's at by the time it opens there.

[trifle]

 

I

[A District 3 Engineer]

It's just doing a few thousands every day, this is not getting more than 500k in that period of time.

[trifle]

2 minutes ago, A District 3 Engineer said:

It's just doing a few thousands every day, this is not getting more than 500k in that period of time.

 

But isn't that in part because it lost 90% of its theaters for Chinese New Year's?  Is it getting some of those theaters back?  I was assuming it was expanding.

[JennaJ]

I guess the big question is if they also give it back more showtimes. If not, the extension won't make much of a difference, but it did lose almost all of its screens due to CNY so maybe it's gonna get some back?

[trifle]

2 minutes ago, trifle said:

 

But isn't that in part because it lost 90% of its theaters for Chinese New Year's?  Is it getting some of those theaters back?  I was assuming it was expanding.

 

2 minutes ago, JennaJ said:

I guess the big question is if they also give it back more showtimes. If not, the extension won't make much of a difference, but it did lose almost all of its screens due to CNY so maybe it's gonna get some back?

 

Great minds think alike!

 

I think I'll ask if anyone on the China thread knows....

[A District 3 Engineer]

5 minutes ago, trifle said:

 

But isn't that in part because it lost 90% of its theaters for Chinese New Year's?  Is it getting some of those theaters back?  I was assuming it was expanding.

 

Passengers final day was supossed to be this weekend. It received an extension in Time, no theaters.

[trifle]

Just now, A District 3 Engineer said:

 

Passengers final day was supossed to be this weekend. It received an extension in Time, no theaters.

 

Rats.

[kayumanggi]

195.3 M overseas ● 293.1 M worldwide

[ChrisTelclear]

Based on all of this it should finish at around $46M in China.  Considering where it started out, and when it was released, it did well.

[lilmac]

On 1/20/2017 at 6:07 PM, Barnack said:

 

It did get around 30 million on it's marketing tv budget in the united states alone, it was an small for a wide release big budget studio movie, but still considerable.

 

 

 

There is no good rules of thumb to evaluate a movie break even point, because where the box office come from change it, the ratio production cost/total cost can change a lot, people can have first dollar gross type of contract, but the best I did come up with seem to be around for big movies is

(1.3 * domestic box office + foreign box office) >= 2 * (net production budget + participation bonus before hitting the mark)

 

smaller movie will need a much bigger ratio, because the production budget is much smaller relative to the releasing cost.

 

 

Movies almost never do that, most movie have a theatrical release that cost more than the theatrical revenue, if you look at a studio annual report, they do 30-40% of their annual revenue from theatrical, most of the revenue come after. Think about a movie like Passenger, imagine a 400 million world box office, divided 70 million in china, 130 million in domestic, 200 million foreign.

 

130 * 0.53 + 200 * .4 + 70 * .25 = 166.4 million, more than enough to pay the 100 million world release, but the 66 million you are left with do not pay the production budget and the overhead (and the participation bonus would have started to kick in too)

 

To not be a flop (i.e. not loose money) for a movie like Passenger the best reference is probably the movie Elyisum and looking at sony leaked document to see is break even point and expectation, it has a similar budget in a similar genre.

 

Elyisum with a 125.62 net production budget planned, with a world release P&A of about 100 million had

 

Break even point: 91.6 domestic / 128.3 international box office, 219.9 worldwide total

Targeted/budgeted to achieve (9.6% ROI): 125 dbo/175 ibo, 300 million worldwide

Wished Return break (15.5% ROI): 145 dbo / 203 ibo, 348 million worldwide

 

The movie ended up generating 297.93 million in total revenue, doing 20.453 million in profit for Sony, on a 93 million dbo / 193 million ibo 286 million worldwide box office performance. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Good post and welcome. 

 

I'll stick with the (Total Production cost/2) metric because of the inherent complexities (especially when you incorporate distribution deals and gross shares for the  producers/actors involved)

[lilmac]

@Barnack

 

 

130 * 0.53 + 200 * .4 + 70 * .25

 

Where did you get this ratio from? Studio take home share from grosses, domestic / international (outside of China) / international (China)?

Edited February 26, 2017 by lilmac

[Barnack]

2 minutes ago, lilmac said:

@Barnack

 

 

130 * 0.53 + 200 * .4 + 70 * .25

 

Where did you get this ratio from? Studio take home share from grosses, domestic / international (outside of China) / international (China)?

 

53% is the most common I saw for big movies domestic (from the theatrical chain cost of movies in their financial statement to the sony leaks), in the past it (say before 2007) it was often 55 to 58% when studio got a larger share of the first weeks.

 

40% is the ratio used by deadline estimate and is close to what movie do according to the different leaks, some movies that are strongly in good market and get the best deal like the Harry Potter/Davinci Code type of franchise movie can make more, say 45%, some movies do less like 35%, 40% is a good rough estimate.

 

For example, using the Sony leaked revenues projections for Hotel Transylvania, that is the share of the gross they used by main market:

 

Australia: 40%

Autria: 40%

Belgium: 42%

Brazil: 43%

France: 38% (france finance their own production by taxing the box office of overseas movies)

Germany: 43%

Holland: 38%

Italy: 40%

Japan: 48%

Korea: 47%

Mexico: 38%

Russia: 42%

Spain: 43%

UK: 32%

 

For an world average of 40%

 

It change a bit from studio to studio and type of movies I would think, like on the domestic market.

 

China 25% return is really well known.

 

 

 

 

 

[lilmac]

On 2/26/2017 at 4:45 PM, Barnack said:

 

53% is the most common I saw for big movies domestic (from the theatrical chain cost of movies in their financial statement to the sony leaks), in the past it (say before 2007) it was often 55 to 58% when studio got a larger share of the first weeks.

 

40% is the ratio used by deadline estimate and is close to what movie do according to the different leaks, some movies that are strongly in good market and get the best deal like the Harry Potter/Davinci Code type of franchise movie can make more, say 45%, some movies do less like 35%, 40% is a good rough estimate.

 

For example, using the Sony leaked revenues projections for Hotel Transylvania, that is the share of the gross they used by main market:

 

Australia: 40%

Autria: 40%

Belgium: 42%

Brazil: 43%

France: 38% (france finance their own production by taxing the box office of overseas movies)

Germany: 43%

Holland: 38%

Italy: 40%

Japan: 48%

Korea: 47%

Mexico: 38%

Russia: 42%

Spain: 43%

UK: 32%

 

For an world average of 40%

 

It change a bit from studio to studio and type of movies I would think, like on the domestic market.

 

China 25% return is really well known.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Interesting. Thank you. Studios only get 25% of every dollar earned in China (on average). That sucks. 

 

On a related note, do you want to help me write up a petition for imdb.com/Amazon to NOT monetize parts of BoxofficeMojo? There are no overt statements to suggest this will be the case but that BOM survey gave me a sinking feeling. Of course they could be planning to shed/eliminate it altogether.

Edited February 28, 2017 by lilmac

[fmpro]

WTF??

 

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$99,012,545	34.9%
+ Foreign:	$184,419,762	65.1%
= Worldwide:	$283,432,307

[trifle]

9 minutes ago, fmpro said:

WTF??

 

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$99,012,545	34.9%
+ Foreign:	$184,419,762	65.1%
= Worldwide:	$283,432,307

 

Yeah.  Numbers went up and BOM went down.  then Numbers went up AGAIN, so now I'm ignoring BOM until they work it out between themselves.

 

http://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Passengers-(2016)#tab=international

Passengers (2016)

Theatrical Performance
Domestic Box Office	$99,037,734	Details
International Box Office	$197,151,485	Details
Worldwide Box Office	$296,189,219

Edited March 2, 2017 by trifle

[fmpro]

BOM has gone downhill since the Bradon Grey days 

[kayumanggi]

195.3 M overseas ● 294.7 M worldwide

[ChrisTelclear]

5 hours ago, kayumanggi said:

195.3 M overseas ● 294.7 M worldwide

There's a disconnect between BOM and The Numbers.  

The Numbers:

 

Domestic Box Office	$99,350,745	Details
International Box Office	$196,895,739	Details
Worldwide Box Office	$296,246,484

[Lizzy]

BOM international numbers seem to be updated much less frequently then The Numbers which could be the reason for the disparity.