ROGUE ONE WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals R1 155.09m, Moana 12.7m, OCP 8.58m, CB 7.1m, FB 5.07m

[grey ghost]

If it misses the top 10 DOM or #1 for 2016 it's a disappointment.

 

That's what happens you follow The Force Awakens, a movie that almost made a billion domestic and came close to Cameron territory worldwide (Titanic).

[Eevin]

7 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

If it misses the top 10 DOM or #1 for 2016 it's a disappointment.

 

That's what happens you follow The Force Awakens, a movie that almost made a billion domestic and came close to Cameron territory worldwide (Titanic).

If this were SW8, I'd agree with you. But this is Rogue One, a spinoff to The Force Awakens. Sure, in relation to our overinflated expectations and in relation to how well it's been doing in presales, something like $120m/$400m is disappointing. But to Disney, I'm sure they're thrilled that a Star Wars spin-off can approach these levels and be considered a disappointment. 

I refuse to believe that a movie that does $485m domestically is disappointing, regardless of the precedent. ANY franchise, ANY movie (again, except SW8) would be thrilled to hit those numbers. 

[Lordmandeep]

59 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Previews are going to be annoying. No franchise does midnights/previews like Star Wars, and of course this will be no exception. A massive preview number isn't going to tell us jack squat about the rest of the weekend. 

 

 

This is more fanbase driven then TFA but its its sitll TA and a large preview, means a big opening weekend or if you do not get that...

 

 

SW7 did  248/57 = 5.48

 

Lets say RO did around 25 million, we are looking at a 137 million weekend.

 

Now SW7 did play to a more family audience so RO will be more frontloaded but I cannot see this declining from Friday Day business and it being more adult skewered and solid wom (thus far) means a good Sunday Hold.

 

 

 

Edited December 15, 2016 by Lordmandeep

[MovieMan89]

If it does more than 30m I'll be willing to talk about 150+ for the weekend. Anything less than that is entirely expected for an SW film and gives us no good indicator of how preview frontloaded it will be.

[filmlover]

Collateral Beauty is sitting at 27 on Metacritic with 16 reviews so far and so real sign of improving. Good grief. I think it's destined to bomb now.

[aabattery]

At least we get one event movie this weekend.

[eXtacy]

Hard to know how this will play out. TFA was the first Star Wars in a decade so maybe that induced a huge rush factor to see it. Quite possible that Rogue One has a better preview multiplier but I can see it going the other way.

 

 

[baumer]

12 pages so far.  Have any numbers been released yet?

 

No?

 

Then why is there so much activity in this thread?

[filmlover]

Just now, Christmas Baumer said:

12 pages so far.  Have any numbers been released yet?

 

No?

 

Then why is there so much activity in this thread?

The Force is strong with everyone. And by The Force I mean sex.

 

Alright. I'll stop there. Not the sex thread!

[MovieMan89]

46 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

If it misses the top 10 DOM or #1 for 2016 it's a disappointment.

Lol, it can miss the 2016 top 10 DOM  and still be a huge hit for a spin off. That's why expectations for this are way out of whack. 

[cannastop]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

Lol, it can miss the 2016 top 10 DOM  and still be a huge hit for a spin off. That's why expectations for this are way out of whack. 

Haha what? No one's going to be happy with a $220m dom Star Wars movie.

[MovieMan89]

Just now, cannastop said:

Haha what? No one's going to be happy with a $220m dom Star Wars movie.

[aabattery]

@Orestes your avatar is really messing with me. Every time I see one of your posts I do a double take till I see the username.

[MovieMan89]

But in all seriousness though, it can miss the top 8 DOM this year and still be a massive success. Top 9 if Sing still pulls out 300. 

[baumer]

6 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Lol, it can miss the 2016 top 10 DOM  and still be a huge hit for a spin off. That's why expectations for this are way out of whack. 

 

I disagree with this 100%.

 

If Rogue One were to miss the top ten that would be disastrous.

[grey ghost]

6 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Lol, it can miss the 2016 top 10 DOM  and still be a huge hit for a spin off. That's why expectations for this are way out of whack. 

 

This is Star Wars.

 

There's only one franchise potentially bigger.

 

The first Hunger Games made 400.

 

Birdseed for jedi, droids, bounty hunters and sith.

[SWXII]

9 minutes ago, Christmas Baumer said:

12 pages so far.  Have any numbers been released yet?

 

No?

 

Then why is there so much activity in this thread?

 

Mostly people dropping in from overseas to praise the movie as they are planning when to go again.

[baumer]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

But in all seriousness though, it can miss the top 8 DOM this year and still be a massive success. Top 9 if Sing still pulls out 300. 

 

Are you saying you think there is a chance this could miss 300?

 

I have a better chance of having a threesome with Daisy Ridley and Reese Witherspoon than this does of missing 300.

[MovieMan89]

Just now, Christmas Baumer said:

 

I disagree with this 100%.

 

If Rogue One were to miss the top ten that would be disastrous.

Assuming the cutoff for top 10 ends up around 250m, then that would be disappointing I'll agree. Hardly disastrous though (i.e. unprofitable). Missing the top 8 (<325m) wouldn't be disastrous in the slightest. Still be a huge 700m WW grosser. 

[Dementeleus]

Just now, Christmas Baumer said:

 

Are you saying you think there is a chance this could miss 300?

 

I have a better chance of having a threesome with Daisy Ridley and Reese Witherspoon than this does of missing 300.

 

In for a penny, in for a pound.