ROGUE ONE WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals R1 155.09m, Moana 12.7m, OCP 8.58m, CB 7.1m, FB 5.07m

[misafeco]

3 minutes ago, RascarCapat said:

 

Out of like but I like your post.

 

How much do I have to donate to the site to get likes ?

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/store/category/3-accounts/

75-500 likes per day depending which type you choose.

Edited December 18, 2016 by misafeco

[Blankments]

14 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

 

 

It does not help when most of them are oscar bait and bad films.

 

They just attention as they are 'dramas' 

IDK, of all the "Oscar baits" I've seen this year, Birth of a Nation was the worst one, but it still was decent

 

Well, besides Florence Foster Jenkins which was absolute shit but I try to forget that film

[a2k]

27 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Where's Moana going to end up?

 

Is 250 m dead?

 

Does Sing have any chance at 300 m?

 

250 is very much alive. sub-240 would be surprising despite Sing.

TS2 legs give it 247. Tangled legs give it 257. (Remember Tangled had that push from 195 to 200)

I feel 240-260 is the wide range. 250 is still realistic.

Edited December 18, 2016 by a2knet

[MovieMan89]

I would really like to see Moana hit 275-280 just because I feel that would be high enough to qualify it as sort of a mini Frozen run if you will. However, I also think 250-260 is the most likely range. 

[WrathOfHan]

30 minutes ago, Goffe said:

I know right, it should have made 50m less... 

[Elessar]

54 minutes ago, Grand Moff Tele said:

Final cume: 536m

 

Sounds about right.

 

I have it finishing with 500m - 550m DOM and 550m - 600m OS. 1b WW should be safe.

[kitik]

Are Fantastic Beasts and Doctor Strange both going to lose another 700 or so theaters this week due to all the wide releases?

[MovieMan89]

I'm genuinely dumbstruck how some can think 3.5x is even remotely realistic for R1. I guess people still don't get what kind of movie TFA was, despite R1 already clearly showing it's no TFA. 

[misafeco]

1 minute ago, kitik said:

Are Fantastic Beasts and Doctor Strange both going to lose another 700 or so theaters this week due to all the wide releases?

Yes. The best comparison to FB is Mockingjay 2 which lost ~1000 theaters on the weekend TFA opened and ~800 the weekend after.

[Daxtreme]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I'm genuinely dumbstruck how some can think 3.5x is even remotely realistic for R1. I guess people still don't get what kind of movie TFA was, despite R1 already clearly showing it's no TFA. 

 

 

 

wait.... wrong franchise  

 

 

[terrestrial]

20 minutes ago, RascarCapat said:

Out of like but I like your post.

How much do I have to donate to the site to get likes ?

For the moment the is a reduced price action, and you can try to win gift cards.

There are threads for e.g. guessing outcomes (WileCoyte did one for SW R1, I hsve one in my signature for B&B), or in the Derby I think too

 

Beside that:

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/store/

 

(the software... of BOT is nearly $4000 per year)

 

Edited December 18, 2016 by terrestrial

[Deep Wang]

16 minutes ago, hw64 said:

Or is this baseless speculation from a fanboy?

 

Have you been correct about anything regarding R1 yet?  Just curious.

 

[MovieMan89]

Some of you may want to consider how the last big opener this week in December when Xmas weekend fell on the same days as this year took a nasty 58% tumble in its second frame:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?view=&yr=2005&wknd=51&p=.htm

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

Some of you may want to consider how the last big opener this week in December when Xmas weekend fell on the same days as this year took a nasty 58% tumble in its second frame:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?view=&yr=2005&wknd=51&p=.htm

Yeah, it's gonna drop big 2nd weekend. But it'll make it up over the next week. Monday is likely gonna be bigger than any day the 2nd weekend.

[Daxtreme]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

Some of you may want to consider how the last big opener this week in December when Xmas weekend fell on the same days as this year took a nasty 58% tumble in its second frame:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?view=&yr=2005&wknd=51&p=.htm

 

But still managed a 4.36 multiplier... ? 

 

What the hell does that prove, except that you have no idea and are just throwing numbers that push your narrative out there?

[Celedhring]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Some of you may want to consider how the last big opener this week in December when Xmas weekend fell on the same days as this year took a nasty 58% tumble in its second frame:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?view=&yr=2005&wknd=51&p=.htm

 

Yet it still managed a 4.35x multiplier. Business just moves to other days.

Edited December 18, 2016 by Celedhring

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

 

But still managed a 4.36 multiplier... ? 

 

What the hell does that prove, except that you have no idea and are just throwing numbers that push your narrative out there?

Lol, forgetting that 50m OW much? Yeah because King Kong TOTALLY would have had a 3.5x+ multi with a 150m OW. 

 

If KK fell 58% off a mere 50m, 65%+ isn't out of the question next weekend for R1. 

 

Edited December 18, 2016 by MovieMan89

[Elessar]

9 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I'm genuinely dumbstruck how some can think 3.5x is even remotely realistic for R1. I guess people still don't get what kind of movie TFA was, despite R1 already clearly showing it's no TFA. 

 

For the umpteenth time, movies do 3x+ with ease this time of year.

[MovieMan89]

Really, it's like some of you forgot all sense and logic when remembering how box office works. 155m openers and 50m openers will NEVER behave the same, I don't care if they open in a brand new 13th month of the year. 

Edited December 18, 2016 by MovieMan89

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

I would say a 3.5x multi is unlikely, but possible. Don't think that's the bar for success though.