ROGUE ONE WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals R1 155.09m, Moana 12.7m, OCP 8.58m, CB 7.1m, FB 5.07m

[B J]

600m+

 

Fri 71.1m

Sat: 46.35m

Sun: 38.00m -18%

 

Opening Wknd: 155.45m

 

Mon: 20.90m -45%

Tue: 20.05m -4%

Wed: 18.90m -5%

Thur: 21.75m +15%

 

Opening Wk: 237m

 

Fri: 29.50m +35%

Sat: 16.85m -42%

Sun: 31.20m +85%

 

2nd Wknd: 77.40m -50%

 

Mon: 37.50m +20%

Tue: 26.15m -30%

Wed: 23.50m -10%

Thur: 23.25m -1%

 

2nd Wk: 187.85m -20%

 

Fri: 29.25m +25%

Sat: 24.85m -10%

Sun: 26.10m +5%

 

3rd Wknd: 80.20m +3%

 

Mon: 22.15m -15%

Tue: 10.00m -55%

Wed: 6.50m -35%

Thur: 6.00m -8%

 

3rd Wk: 124.85m -33%

 

Dom total after 21 days: 550m

[hw64]

7 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Donnie Yen might help offset that a bit - unlike in Russia

 

Yeah, but the film itself is the big thing. If they don't connect with the story like they didn't with TFA, Donnie Yen is not going to be much of a factor. It'll be a "Donnie Yen was great, but the film was bad - don't bother" kind of thing. The Chinese have plenty of Donnie Yen elsewhere (including in xXx: Return of Xander Cage which might be getting a January 2017 release date near to Rogue One's), so it's not like they're going to sit through what they think is a bad film just to see his character.

[baumer]

1 hour ago, #ED said:

Rogue One is doing great and all, but Fantasy football playoffs are a bitch.

 

Id like to thank Russel Wilson for not throwing to Graham anymore and id like to thank Ajayi for only getting me 5 pts yesterday. Both of them really helped me in the semi finals. (Sarcasm)

[Daxtreme]

1 minute ago, B J said:

3rd Wknd: 80.20m +3%

 

 

Not happening.

[RascarCapat]

10 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

I'm not upset or anything lol, here's a link so you know I'm not bullshitting.

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/search/?&q=150ow&author=IronJimbo

 

Appreciate if you add me!

 

Also I closed the list at the end of November.

Got any pre December post ?

[Kvikk Lunsj]

Remember next Saturday is Christmas eve so a lot of movies are going to have a big drop. 

[B J]

1 minute ago, Daxtreme said:

 

 

Not happening.

sure

[RamblinRed]

If it holds a 19% drop on Sunday that will be pretty impressive.

It's performance relative to FRI numbers is better than TFA. 

 

On a tangential movie note. The USD is not strong because of Trump. It has been getting stronger for some time. Trump was a surprise and the USD was getting stronger long before that surprise. Fed hike had nothing to do with Trump either. Everyone knew that was coming. There should have been a rate hike in the summer/fall but Fed chose not to make one as they didn't want to appear political.

 

Frankly the Fed should have started raising interest rates 2 years ago but were afraid (and partially cowed by politicians) into not raising them for fear of hurting the economic recovery. But that means when the next recession comes (and we are overdue by historical standards) they haven't given themselves much leverage to do anything.

 

 

 

[CJohn]

36 minutes ago, filmlover said:

@CJohn what happened to Lionsgate finding a way to fuck up La La Land's run?

 

It will happen with the wide release.

[terrestrial]

 

 

14 minutes ago, RascarCapat said:

I can't read every post of every thread.

And it's not like I didn't post this list 100 times in the RO thread asking if I forgot anyone's prediction.

 

If you had pinged me or quoted me, I wouldn't have missed your prediction.

 

You repeatedly wrote to ping or quote you, so it is not you who missed him/her, it id him/her who missed to do it in the correct way.

Its a lot of work you with that club, respect. 

 

11 minutes ago, jandrew said:

Never did a trailer report:

 

How did your mother like the film?

[George Parr]

31 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Predictions for next weekend:

 

Rogue One: 93M

Sing: 50M (70M 5 day)

Passengers: 30M (40M 5 day)

Assassin's Creed: 25M (33M 5 day)

Why Him: 20M

Moana: 10M

Fences: 7M OD

La La Land: 6.5M

Collateral Beauty: 4.7M

Manchester by the Sea: 4.3M

 

That seems quite high for Rogue One to me. Just a 40% drop when it loses out on the previews (obviously) and has the most important day cut down due to christmas?

That would be an identical drop to TFA, while being in a far worse situation. Instead of getting a boost due to christmas day being on Friday, it actually loses due to christmas eve falling on Saturday.

[Daxtreme]

5 minutes ago, B J said:

sure

 

You think that a mega-blockbuster like this will increase on its 3rd week-end with such huge numbers? 

 

It's not going to gross almost $80M on its 2nd week-end and then $80M again the next week-end. I'm sorry but that's just not how box office works for big openers. 

 

Even TFA managed to drop only 40%, and that's an excellent drop, pretty much the best Rogue One could hope for.

[B J]

Just now, Daxtreme said:

 

You think that a mega-blockbuster like this will increase on its 3rd week-end with such huge numbers? 

 

It's not going to gross almost $80M on its 2nd week-end and then $80M again the next week-end. I'm sorry but that's just not how box office works for big openers. 

 

Even TFA managed to drop only 40%, and that's an excellent drop, pretty much the best Rogue One could hope for.

yup

[Daxtreme]

2 minutes ago, B J said:

yup

 

Start a club 

 

Rogue One 3rd week-end over Rogue One 2nd week-end.

 

Then see who joins ...  

[Lordmandeep]

There is no stiff competition next week

 

Everything apart from sing is going to underperform and sing is not any direct competition.

 

Also the real weekend next week is Sunday to Tuesday.

[Jake Gittes]

I'm actually expecting about $70m next weekend, give or take a few million. Last two times the weekend fell on December 23-25, King Kong dropped 57% and Sherlock Holmes 2 dropped 49%, I don't see RO holding better especially with more competition. 

[Deep Wang]

2 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:

 

You think that a mega-blockbuster like this will increase on its 3rd week-end with such huge numbers? 

 

It's not going to gross almost $80M on its 2nd week-end and then $80M again the next week-end. I'm sorry but that's just not how box office works for big openers. 

 

Even TFA managed to drop only 40%, and that's an excellent drop, pretty much the best Rogue One could hope for.

 

That was the trend for that weekend in 2011.  Every movie except Ghost Protocol increased on New Year's weekend, and even that only dropped .5%.

 

Of course, those movies weren't making anywhere near what R1 will be making, so I don't see it happening either, but I do think it will have a very good drop.  

[babz06]

It's dropping next weekend because of xmas eve falling on a Saturday. Everything does. 

Probably 65-70m second weekend

[Avatree]

 

Just now, Jake Gittes said:

I'm actually expecting about $70m next weekend, give or take a few million. Last two times the weekend fell on December 23-25, King Kong dropped 57% and Sherlock Holmes 2 dropped 49%, I don't see RO holding better especially with more competition. 

I know Kong isn't a great comparison as it opened so much lower, but it had very bad word of mouth. 

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, Jake Gittes said:

I'm actually expecting about $70m next weekend, give or take a few million. Last two times the weekend fell on December 23-25, King Kong dropped 57% and Sherlock Holmes 2 dropped 49%, I don't see RO holding better especially with more competition. 

 

I see it holding less since neither of those films had such huge previews in proportion to FSS