Tues #s (Asgard pg 136) R1 22.4 Sing 17.7 Pass 6 Moan 4.6 Ass 3.6 WH 3.4 Fen 3.1 LLL 2.6

[JohnnyGossamer]

Where is MovieMan? Is R1 categorized as an event yet given $550M+ DOM is likely?

[Lordmandeep]

I think sw8 wont drop to much because unlike the Phantom menace...

 

It was well liked and really excited a whole new legion of fans and pleased the old fans.

 

And it really has a story that people are really curious about...

 

Who is ray's dad?

Is Snoke Jr jar binks?

Rey vs Kaylo fully healed

Edited December 28, 2016 by Lordmandeep

[RamblinRed]

1 minute ago, Christmas Baumer said:

 

What error?

 

I'm going by historical data now. My club was based on a prognosis. My Outlook is based on numbers from the past. I already said 600 possible but it's certainly not the low end.

 

I thought the club was set at a good number. i was thinking 465-475, so i was just out.

 

It was dead, and Baumer was very gracious about this, as soon as R1 did 155. It would have had to have horrible legs at that point and nothing suggested it would. Any well received blockbuster at Christmas gets at least a 3.2X. So the floor after the first weekend was just a hair under 500.

 

i always read Baumer's posts because he is very clear eyed about numbers and doesn't allow his personal preferences to override what he sees in the numbers.

 

 

[jb007]

2 minutes ago, Hatebox said:

 

But MovieMan also said the superhero genre would burn out by 2005...

In an alternate universe, it may have done so. 

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

7 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Where is MovieMan? Is R1 categorized as an event yet given $550M+ DOM is likely?

It has to pass 550m first. But I think he'll show up. He's already admitted that he was wrong on the gross (after a lot of groveling).

[PPZVGOS]

17 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Midpoint between R1 and TFA if R1 DOM is...

 

$530M: Midpoint at $733M

$550M: Midpoint at $743M

$570M: Midpoint at $753M

$600M: Midpoint at $768M

 

Honestly believe that SW8 will outgross Avatar.

 

If Star Wars VIII is good or better, then Avatar is toast for a second time. 

[redfirebird2008]

18 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Seems like we now know for sure that these Star Wars releases, especially the Episodes, will have at least a 3.5 multiplier going forward.

 

When released in December, yes. When released in summer, the opening weekend will be larger and the multiplier will be lower.  

[John Marston]

Just realize R1 could make more domestically than overseas. Unheard of these days for a big movie 

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

Looking deeper into RO's run, if it just holds decent on both the 4th and 5th weekends (and the latter is a holiday), it very well could have top 5 #s for both those weekends.

4th weekends:

Spoiler

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Weeknd Gross*	% of Total	Theaters / Avg.		Total Gross^	Date**
1	Avatar	Fox	$50,306,217	6.7%	3,422	$14,701	$749,766,139	12/18/09
2	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	BV	$42,353,785	4.5%	4,134	$10,245	$936,662,225	12/18/15
3	Marvel's The Avengers	BV	$36,686,871	5.9%	3,918	$9,364	$623,357,910	5/4/12
4	Jurassic World	Uni.	$29,242,025	4.5%	3,737	$7,825	$652,270,625	6/12/15
5	Titanic	Par.	$28,716,310	4.8%	2,746	$10,458	$600,788,188	12/19/97
6	Spider-Man	Sony	$28,508,104	7.1%	3,876	$7,355	$403,706,375	5/3/02
7	The Dark Knight	WB	$26,117,030	4.9%	4,025	$6,489	$533,345,358	7/18/08
8	The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe	BV	$25,686,555	8.8%	3,853	$6,666	$291,710,957	12/9/05
9	Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace	Fox	$25,632,861	5.9%	3,024	$8,476	$431,088,295	5/19/99
10	The Jungle Book (2016)	BV	$24,488,436	6.7%	4,144	$5,909	$364,001,123	4/15/16

5th weekends:

Spoiler

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Weeknd Gross*	% of Total	Theaters / Avg.		Total Gross^	Date**
1	Avatar	Fox	$42,785,612	5.7%	3,285	$13,025	$749,766,139	12/18/09
2	Titanic	Par.	$30,011,034	5.0%	2,767	$10,846	$600,788,188	12/19/97
3	Frozen	BV	$28,596,319	7.1%	3,335	$8,575	$400,738,009	11/27/13
4	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	BV	$26,342,117	2.8%	3,822	$6,892	$936,662,225	12/18/15
5	The Sixth Sense	BV	$22,896,967	7.8%	2,775	$8,251	$293,506,292	8/6/99
6	Marvel's The Avengers	BV	$20,486,418	3.3%	3,670	$5,582	$623,357,910	5/4/12
7	Zootopia	BV	$19,325,291	5.7%	3,698	$5,226	$341,268,248	3/4/16
8	Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace	Fox	$18,859,021	4.4%	3,019	$6,246	$431,088,295	5/19/99
9	Jurassic World	Uni.	$18,151,275	2.8%	3,441	$5,275	$652,270,625	6/12/15
10	The Jungle Book (2016)	BV	$17,115,708	4.7%	3,970	$4,311	$364,001,123	4/15/16

 

Edited December 28, 2016 by Jayhawk

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

2 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

When released in December, yes. When released in summer, the opening weekend will be larger and the multiplier will be lower.  

I also think that releasing in December does make it more $ overall as well. Less tent-pole competition than summer and the real potential for an empty January (it's looking like it this year).

Edited December 28, 2016 by Jayhawk

[RamblinRed]

10 minutes ago, Jayhawk said:

Looking deeper into RO's run, if it just holds decent on both the 4th and 5th weekends (and the latter is a holiday), it very well coul have top 5 #s for both those weekends.

4th weekends:

  Hide contents

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Weeknd Gross*	% of Total	Theaters / Avg.		Total Gross^	Date**
1	Avatar	Fox	$50,306,217	6.7%	3,422	$14,701	$749,766,139	12/18/09
2	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	BV	$42,353,785	4.5%	4,134	$10,245	$936,662,225	12/18/15
3	Marvel's The Avengers	BV	$36,686,871	5.9%	3,918	$9,364	$623,357,910	5/4/12
4	Jurassic World	Uni.	$29,242,025	4.5%	3,737	$7,825	$652,270,625	6/12/15
5	Titanic	Par.	$28,716,310	4.8%	2,746	$10,458	$600,788,188	12/19/97
6	Spider-Man	Sony	$28,508,104	7.1%	3,876	$7,355	$403,706,375	5/3/02
7	The Dark Knight	WB	$26,117,030	4.9%	4,025	$6,489	$533,345,358	7/18/08
8	The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe	BV	$25,686,555	8.8%	3,853	$6,666	$291,710,957	12/9/05
9	Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace	Fox	$25,632,861	5.9%	3,024	$8,476	$431,088,295	5/19/99
10	The Jungle Book (2016)	BV	$24,488,436	6.7%	4,144	$5,909	$364,001,123	4/15/16

5th weekends:

  Hide contents

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Weeknd Gross*	% of Total	Theaters / Avg.		Total Gross^	Date**
1	Avatar	Fox	$42,785,612	5.7%	3,285	$13,025	$749,766,139	12/18/09
2	Titanic	Par.	$30,011,034	5.0%	2,767	$10,846	$600,788,188	12/19/97
3	Frozen	BV	$28,596,319	7.1%	3,335	$8,575	$400,738,009	11/27/13
4	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	BV	$26,342,117	2.8%	3,822	$6,892	$936,662,225	12/18/15
5	The Sixth Sense	BV	$22,896,967	7.8%	2,775	$8,251	$293,506,292	8/6/99
6	Marvel's The Avengers	BV	$20,486,418	3.3%	3,670	$5,582	$623,357,910	5/4/12
7	Zootopia	BV	$19,325,291	5.7%	3,698	$5,226	$341,268,248	3/4/16
8	Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace	Fox	$18,859,021	4.4%	3,019	$6,246	$431,088,295	5/19/99
9	Jurassic World	Uni.	$18,151,275	2.8%	3,441	$5,275	$652,270,625	6/12/15
10	The Jungle Book (2016)	BV	$17,115,708	4.7%	3,970	$4,311	$364,001,123	4/15/16

 

that seems very likely

I'd say Top 3 for third weekend, top 5 at worst

Top 3 4th weekend, top 4 worst

Top 5 5th weekend, top 6 worst

 

[elcaballero]

7 hours ago, terrestrial said:

Thank you.

Dictionary gives for whimsy  mood as an explanation (alternative: on a whim...).

It shows situations like a caricature (drawings, where people have e.g. way bigger noses, specifics are pronounced usually strongly), pointing out e.g. clichés in an over-the-top way, but not in the slapstick way

Does whimsy stand for that specifically?

In this case, it's closer to "endearing because it's odd and unique."

[WrathOfHan]

What are the chances it beats TDK?

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

3 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

that seems very likely

I'd say Top 3 for third weekend, top 5 at worst

Top 3 4th weekend, top 4 worst

Top 5 5th weekend, top 6 worst

 

Yeah, a 55m 3rd weekend with 40% drops for both the 4th and 5th weekends (well within historical averages) would give it #4 4th wknd, and the #7 5th weekend. Potential to much better than that.

[redfirebird2008]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

What are the chances it beats TDK?

 

Very good. Assuming around $440m through Monday, similar post-holiday legs to TFA (not great) would lead to a $550m total.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

What are the chances it beats TDK?

Very high. After Jan 2nd, it'll extremely likely be <$100m away from TDK. People have said it before, but the way the calendar is set up this year is very helpful for late legs. Plus virtually no competition.

Edited December 28, 2016 by Jayhawk

[Lordmandeep]

anyone else laugh when the admiral akbar look alike was on screen?

 

I am not sure why, but the absurdity of a fish creature dressed up in space as a leader in  very comical...

[JohnnyGossamer]

23 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

When released in December, yes. When released in summer, the opening weekend will be larger and the multiplier will be lower.  

I didn't realize any of the Episodes were to be released outside of December. And, honestly, I kind of expect all of them to be released just before Christmas. Episode VIII is a December release, no?

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

Just now, JohnnyGossamer said:

I didn't realize any of the Episodes were to be released outside of December. And, honestly, I kind of expect all of them to be released just before Christmas. Episode VIII is a December release, no?

Yes. IX isn't currently, but will be. The only SW movie that is unsure to be a December release is Han Solo. But that may depend on Avatar 2/how ballsy Disney gets with it.

[FlashMaster659]

2 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

I didn't realize any of the Episodes were to be released outside of December. And, honestly, I kind of expect all of them to be released just before Christmas. Episode VIII is a December release, no?

Yes.