WrathOfHan's Controversial 2017 Box Office Predictions

[Jay Beezy]

10 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

I already explained that Snatched garnered very little buzz online.

 

The House has no online buzz. I understand it's because it has no trailer, but what if it generates very little online buzz? Considering its lead stars are not on social media, that feels very possible. I know one of the stars is Will Ferrell, but is Dwayne Johnson not a star to you?

Edited January 4, 2017 by Jay Beezy

[franfar]

5 hours ago, That One Guy said:

 

It wasn't promoted by YouTube.  Only reason it was on front page for so long is cause it was trending for so long.

 

Did you just unironically refer to The Mummy as an "original movie?" 

 

I don't think a generally solid like/dislike ratio means people "hate" it.

They may not hate it, but anything below a near invisible dislike bar is bad quality. 

 

If you look at the comments, lots of people are trashing it for making the original look bad. 

4 hours ago, That One Guy said:

 

The trailer wasn't the poorly cut IMAX trailer though.

GA doesn't care

 

5 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

June 23:

 

 

Transformers: The Last Knight: Michael Bay released the first entry in the Transformers series nearly 10 years ago. The first three films were gigantic grossers domestically, but Age of Extinction suffered a loss of over 100M from Dark of the Moon and a fudged OW. The trailer for The Last Knight was released nearly a month ago and only has 8.8M views on the most popular video. Its views are the lowest of the major tentpoles releasing in May and June, and it’s even below War for the Planet of the Apes. The dedicated fans of the series will still go out and see the film, but there’s simply very little buzz for the movie. This film has China going for it, at least. 50/125 (2.5x)

 

 

 

4 hours ago, filmlover said:

I wouldn't be surprised if Transformers barely scraps by $100M. Who cares anymore? There's too many quality franchises out there these days to opt for something as brain dead as this one.

Also Transformers used to be (not sure about now) huge among younger audiences. Their toys probably still sell a lot, but the movies are lame. Plus it's in between Cars 3, DM 3, and Homecoming. I bet all of them will have better WOM than some over hashed, cliche movie whose heydays are behind it. It's legs will be abysmal. 

 

I think it'll have a bigger OW though, since the last one got $100m.

[The Panda]

5 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

June 23:

 

 

Transformers: The Last Knight: Michael Bay released the first entry in the Transformers series nearly 10 years ago. The first three films were gigantic grossers domestically, but Age of Extinction suffered a loss of over 100M from Dark of the Moon and a fudged OW. The trailer for The Last Knight was released nearly a month ago and only has 8.8M views on the most popular video. Its views are the lowest of the major tentpoles releasing in May and June, and it’s even below War for the Planet of the Apes. The dedicated fans of the series will still go out and see the film, but there’s simply very little buzz for the movie. This film has China going for it, at least. 50/125 (2.5x)

 

 

 

 

I agree with this.  But I also think your Mummy predict should look more like this (And even that's the high end for it).

[franfar]

3 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

June 30:

 

 

Despicable Me 3: Can anyone stop Illumination at this point? Much to my dismay, The Secret Life of Pets was the fourth highest grossing movie of 2016 domestically and Sing could hit 300M (I’m actually seeing it tomorrow!). I really can’t be blinded by how well they’re doing. Originally, I thought the bad reception to Minions would cause this to dip below 300M, but both of their 2016 films proved they are a force to be reckoned with. Additionally, the marketplace for kids films this summer is very barren. This leaves more room for it to be huge. I’m already bracing for the minions that will grace store shelves. 120/400 (3.33x)

 

 

 

 

 

The House: Will Ferrell is another force to be reckoned with at the box office. He is one of the few stars that can draw audiences into the theaters these days; Daddy’s Home was a huge, surprising hit, and Get Hard and The Campaign nearly reached 100M. The House is being released in the middle of the summer and will take full advantage of summer weekdays. I expect numbers similar to Bad Moms and Central Intelligence. 35/125 (3.57x)

 

 

Hope you enjoy Sing! It was entertaining. 

 

These predicts sound good

[MCKillswitch123]

Again dude, regarding your Transformers prediction, YT trailer views alone aren't good enough indicators. You have to go see its trailer views on Facebook as well, and even Twitter if possible. And guess what: TLK broke nearly 100 million views in 24 hours! People are still unquestionably interested in the franchise, and I don't see an OW any lower than 80M happening.

 

That being said, I do agree that it's declining from AOE (and thank God for that). But it's still gonna perform well. Cause it's Transformers.

[Jay Beezy]

5 hours ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Again dude, regarding your Transformers prediction, YT trailer views alone aren't good enough indicators. You have to go see its trailer views on Facebook as well, and even Twitter if possible. And guess what: TLK broke nearly 100 million views in 24 hours! People are still unquestionably interested in the franchise, and I don't see an OW any lower than 80M happening.

 

That being said, I do agree that it's declining from AOE (and thank God for that). But it's still gonna perform well. Cause it's Transformers.

 

Let's not forget, though, that online buzz and YT trailer views are not a proper indicator of success. Because there's no way to distinguish first time views from 2nd time views to 100th time views. There's still a big disparity between online buzz and general buzz. Remember when Suicide Squad was generating the highest level of online buzz of any movie in history? It drove some people here to predict an opening weekend higher than Jurassic World.

Edited January 4, 2017 by Jay Beezy

[The Panda]

Yeah, you can't predict based off of trailer views.  Just because someone watches a trailer, it doesn't mean they'll watch the movie.

 

Also, movies targeting certain demos garner more trailer views than others, but don't necessarily outgross them.

 

Online buzz has also proven to be a pretty flawed metric that can lead to bad predictions.

Edited January 4, 2017 by La La Panda

[filmlover]

I saw the trailer for Snatched before Passengers and Why Him? over the holidays and it got big laughs both times. Thinking it'll do pretty well, especially since it opens on Mother's Day weekend.

Edited January 4, 2017 by filmlover

[Jay Beezy]

8 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I saw the trailer for Snatched before Passengers and Why Him? over the holidays and it got big laughs both times. Thinking it'll do pretty well, especially since it opens on Mother's Day weekend.

 

Snatched was well received at my Why Him? showing as well. Didn't see Passengers, though.

 

Baywatch has also gotten some solid responses in theaters attached to Why Him? and Office Christmas Party, at least my showings. Plus it has Dwayne Johnson.

[MCKillswitch123]

53 minutes ago, Jay Beezy said:

 

Let's not forget, though, that online buzz and YT trailer views are not a proper indicator of success. Because there's no way to distinguish first time views from 2nd time views to 100th time views. There's still a big disparity between online buzz and general buzz. Remember when Suicide Squad was generating the most level of online buzz of any movie in history? It drove some people here to predict an opening weekend higher than Jurassic World.

 

Hey, I'll still defend to this day that Suicide Squad could've opened higher than it did if the INITIAL wom was better. I know that it had late legs and people warmed much more to it, but at 1st, it's reception was BVS tepid. Imagine if the movie had been received in a Deadpool or Guardians way, a super fun blast of a blockbuster, rather than a messy and dull slog. Would've still been more frontloaded, but it wouldn't have dropped as harshly as it did on Friday to Saturday, would've had a bigger OW than it did, and it's overall run would've been much stronger too.

 

And, Jurassic World may be a stretch, but that movie exploded for those very reasons. I think.

[WrathOfHan]

Spider-Man: Homecoming: WITH YOUR LEFT HAND FREE AND YOUR RIGHT HAND GRIPPED! Spider-Man: Homecoming marks the webslinger’s first MCU solo movie. Although the first trailer didn’t do much for me, I’m looking forward to a different tone for a superhero film. The trailer received a lot of buzz online, and the addition of Tony Stark will help draw in audiences. However, it’s unclear how much Civil War will limit this movie’s box office potential. Although Homecoming looks relatively singular, Civil War was notoriously frontloaded and didn’t leave much room for casual MCU viewers. If the movie requires knowledge of Civil War, that will ruin its chances of 400M. I don’t think it’ll go that high regardless, but this should be a solid entry in the cinematic universe. 130/340 (2.62x)

[DAJK]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Spider-Man: Homecoming: WITH YOUR LEFT HAND FREE AND YOUR RIGHT HAND GRIPPED! Spider-Man: Homecoming marks the webslinger’s first MCU solo movie. Although the first trailer didn’t do much for me, I’m looking forward to a different tone for a superhero film. The trailer received a lot of buzz online, and the addition of Tony Stark will help draw in audiences. However, it’s unclear how much Civil War will limit this movie’s box office potential. Although Homecoming looks relatively singular, Civil War was notoriously frontloaded and didn’t leave much room for casual MCU viewers. If the movie requires knowledge of Civil War, that will ruin its chances of 400M. I don’t think it’ll go that high regardless, but this should be a solid entry in the cinematic universe. 130/340 (2.62x)

 

 

The battle of the "Toms"

 

Holland vs Cruise

[Jay Beezy]

14 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

Hey, I'll still defend to this day that Suicide Squad could've opened higher than it did if the INITIAL wom was better. I know that it had late legs and people warmed much more to it, but at 1st, it's reception was BVS tepid. Imagine if the movie had been received in a Deadpool or Guardians way, a super fun blast of a blockbuster, rather than a messy and dull slog. Would've still been more frontloaded, but it wouldn't have dropped as harshly as it did on Friday to Saturday, would've had a bigger OW than it did, and it's overall run would've been much stronger too.

 

And, Jurassic World may be a stretch, but that movie exploded for those very reasons. I think.

 

Even with the bad reviews coming in, people were still making outlandish predictions because "BIGGEST ONLINE BUZZ EVAR!!!"

[MCKillswitch123]

5 minutes ago, Jay Beezy said:

 

Even with the bad reviews coming in, people were still making outlandish predictions because "BIGGEST ONLINE BUZZ EVAR!!!"

 

Eek. At THAT point, I guess the buzz should've been more controlled, then. But I still think that if audiences were more positive to it at the very start, the opening would've been higher.

[Jay Beezy]

17 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

Eek. At THAT point, I guess the buzz should've been more controlled, then. But I still think that if audiences were more positive to it at the very start, the opening would've been higher.

 

Thing is, you could say that about any big movie. Not exclusive to Suicide Squad. Namely because when the studio has a good movie on their hands and they know it, they'll want to get the word out early. Where Deadpool and Civil War succeeded and BvS and SS failed. The former two movies got the word out early because the studios knew they had good movies. Warning signs were there for BvS and SS as we didn't get reviews until week of release.

[Jay Beezy]

1 hour ago, La La Panda said:

Yeah, you can't predict based off of trailer views.  Just because someone watches a trailer, it doesn't mean they'll watch the movie.

 

Also, movies targeting certain demos garner more trailer views than others, but don't necessarily outgross them.

 

Online buzz has also proven to be a pretty flawed metric that can lead to bad predictions.

 

Pirates 5 and Transformers 5 didn't get great reactions at my Rogue One showings.

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, Jay Beezy said:

 

Pirates 5 and Transformers 5 didn't get great reactions at my Rogue One showings.

That's cause no one cares anymore.

[Jay Beezy]

11 minutes ago, filmlover said:

That's cause no one cares anymore.

 

It's just a highlight of the discrepancy between online and general buzz. It was pointed out that Transformers has a large number of trailer views on Facebook and also that a fair share of the online community is excited for a supposed return to form for Pirates. You wouldn't sense much excitement for these movies watching the trailers in theaters.

Edited January 4, 2017 by Jay Beezy

[MCKillswitch123]

59 minutes ago, Jay Beezy said:

 

Thing is, you could say that about any big movie. Not exclusive to Suicide Squad. Namely because when the studio has a good movie on their hands and they know it, they'll want to get the word out early. Where Deadpool and Civil War succeeded and BvS and SS failed. The former two movies got the word out early because the studios knew they had good movies. Warning signs were there for BvS and SS as we didn't get reviews until week of release.

 

...I mean, indeed you can apply that you any movie, but Suicide Squad really did have a crazy amount of buzz. At least around the interwebz. And I know personally people who really wanted to see it, and aren't even into comic books. Laughable evidence, I know, but still. If it were even a decent, Jurassic World quality movie, it could've opened to 145-150M. All it had to do was be a fun movie, and it could've exploded beyond the 133M it did which was purely out of great marketing + fan rush. SS should have never had a Twilight-like drop on the FriSat bridge. It was an even worse drop than BVS's, and BVS was released on a holiday in March. 

 

I'm not sure if my point is being very well transmitted but whatevs

 

PS: I'm pretty sure Deadpool dropped reviews on Sunday the week of release.

Edited January 4, 2017 by MCKillswitch123

[Jay Beezy]

3 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

...I mean, indeed you can apply that you any movie, but Suicide Squad really did have a crazy amount of buzz. At least around the interwebz. And I know personally people who really wanted to see it, and aren't even into comic books. Laughable evidence, I know, but still. If it were even a decent, Jurassic World quality movie, it could've opened to 145-150M. All it had to do was be a fun movie, and it could've exploded beyond the 133M it did which was purely out of great marketing + fan rush. SS should have never had a Twilight-like drop on the FriSat bridge. It was an even worse drop than BVS's, and BVS was released on a holiday in March. I'm pretty sure Deadpool dropped reviews on Sunday the week of release though.

 

I'm not sure if my point is being very well transmitted but whatevs

 

Deadpool dropped reviews the Saturday before. 

 

When I mean week of, I mean with just a few days before release.

 

And to elaborate further, when a studio *knows* they have a good movie on their hands, it doesn't just affect when they show the movie, but also how they build up additional buzz. There was a lot of skepticism going into BvS (mixed reception to MoS, uncertainty over Batfleck) and little was done to assuage concerns well before release.

 

Although, I guess you could say SS was able to market a proper crowdpleasing character with gleeful psycho fan favorite Harley Quinn and placing her alongside other characters, regardless of the quality of the movie. BvS didn't really have that kind of character.