WrathOfHan's Controversial 2017 Box Office Predictions

[WrathOfHan]

May 26:

Baywatch: Here’s 2017’s other attempt at making another Jump Street, and it sure as shit won’t happen. The movie looks astonishingly and offensively bad. I don’t care that there’s eye candy for everyone; that’s what the internet and True Detective exist for (did you seriously think I’d go this entire writeup without mentioning TD?). It’s a good thing this is going to bomb!

*checks trailer views*

Well shit. The trailer views are actually pretty decent. This won’t do insane numbers due to competition, but it might be a light success. 25/70 (2.8x)

 

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales: Some people are underestimating this film. When the trailer premiered a few months ago, it generated a lot of buzz online. The franchise’s quality has been very spotty, but early word is saying that the fifth installment is up there with Curse of the Black Pearl in quality. Disney knows how to market a movie, and they won’t let the 320M spent on making this film go to waste. Add in the return of Orlando Bloom, and this could be a surprise hit with proper marketing. 80/220 (2.75x)

[Alli]

hmmm...i see Baywatch  opening higher. this prediction is indeed controversial...

[TwoMisfits]

16 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

May 26: Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales: Some people are underestimating this film. When the trailer premiered a few months ago, it generated a lot of buzz online. The franchise’s quality has been very spotty, but early word is saying that the fifth installment is up there with Curse of the Black Pearl in quality. Disney knows how to market a movie, and they won’t let the 320M spent on making this film go to waste. Add in the return of Orlando Bloom, and this could be a surprise hit with proper marketing. 80/220 (2.75x)

 

 

 

If they spent $320M, ummm, why would $220M DOM make them a hit?  Even if they almost double that number WW and hit say $600M total, they are probably looking at just making their investment back...that's not my definition of a "hit"...

Although, $320M for a FIFTH movie in a sequence??  Who, on Earth, greenlit all that budget and didn't just shut this down $200M ago?  

 

Edited January 2, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[That One Girl]

4 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

If they spent $320M, ummm, why would $220M DOM make them a hit?  Even if they almost double that number WW and hit say $600M total, they are probably looking at just making their investment back...that's not my definition of a "hit"...

Although, $320M for a FIFTH movie in a sequence??  Who, on Earth, greenlit all that budget and didn't just shut this down $200M ago?  

 

 

600M WW coming off of a film that made 1B WW?

[miketheavenger]

21 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

If they spent $320M, ummm, why would $220M DOM make them a hit?  Even if they almost double that number WW and hit say $600M total, they are probably looking at just making their investment back...that's not my definition of a "hit"...

Although, $320M for a FIFTH movie in a sequence??  Who, on Earth, greenlit all that budget and didn't just shut this down $200M ago?  

 

Pirates franchise is a true juggernaut overseas. The last one made over 800m. Even with bad exchange rates, I can't see sub-500m OS. Probably 600m+.

[TwoMisfits]

16 minutes ago, miketheavenger said:

Pirates franchise is a true juggernaut overseas. The last one made over 800m. Even with bad exchange rates, I can't see sub-500m OS. Probably 600m+.

 

It's been 6 years since the last one...Ice Age could tell you that the 4th installment doesn't indicate what the 5th installment will make, even OS...

Edited January 2, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[That One Girl]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

It's been 5 years since the last one...Ice Age could tell you that the 4th installment doesn't indicate what the 5th installment will make, even OS...

 

Ice Age is the exception, not the rule.

[Jonwo]

19 minutes ago, miketheavenger said:

Pirates franchise is a true juggernaut overseas. The last one made over 800m. Even with bad exchange rates, I can't see sub-500m OS. Probably 600m+.

 

I think Wonder Woman will hurt Pirates OS as well as domestic

[TwoMisfits]

6 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

Ice Age is the exception, not the rule.

 

Unless it's the new rule:)...there was a rule about sequels of hits being no-brainers before 2016, too (I heard about this rule all the time on another game)...and then we had Zoolander 2, Alice 2, Independence Day 2, TMNT 2, Huntsman 2, My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2, Bad Santa 2, etc...

Edited January 2, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[Jonwo]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Unless it's the new rule:)...there was a rule about sequels of hits being no-brainers before 2016, too (I heard about this rule all the time on another game)...and then we had Zoolander 2, Alice 2, Independence Day 2, TMNT 2, Huntsman 2, My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2, Bad Santa 2, etc...

 

I don't think anyone thought Bad Santa 2 would be a hit or Zoolander or Huntsman.. 

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Unless it's the new rule:)...there was a rule about sequels of hits being no-brainers before 2016, too (I heard about this rule all the time on another game)...and then we had Zoolander 2, Alice 2, Independence Day 2, TMNT 2, Huntsman 2, My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2, etc...

 

There was never a rule, it just so happened that studios thought those sequels had potential.  Zoolander was a massive hit on home video, Alice made 1B, Independence Day was a cultural landmark, TMNT '14 was a massive success, My Big Fat Greek Wedding was one of the most out of nowhere hits of all time, and Snow White and The Huntsman made quite a decent amount of money.  Most of these were made for perfectly fine reasons.  Hell, I'm pretty sure most studio executives would've greenlit these movies without much second thought.  It's just that somewhere along the line, they got screwed up.

[YM!]

I eagerly anticipate your Wonder Woman and Captain Underpants predictions.

[MrPink]

This is taking too long to get to Dunkirk

[MCKillswitch123]

53 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

600M WW coming off of a film that made 1B WW?

 

Huh... Alice Through The Looking Glass gotta ring bells, right?

 

Though Pirates is a completely different ballgame, that franchise has much more fanbase love and all, but then again, the last one was Godawful (still grossed 1B WW), and there hasn't been a even bearable one since... I dunno, the 2nd? The 3rd one was entertaining but an overbloated mess of a movie.

 

Also, there's no way Baywatch goes under 100M DOM. Why? The Rock, that's why.

Edited January 2, 2017 by MCKillswitch123

[FantasticBeasts]

1 hour ago, That One Guy said:

 

600M WW coming off of a film that made 1B WW?

ER is terrible nowadays...That 800m that the last movie got from OS should adjust in the lowers of the 600m range. The last one having terrible word of mouth it is not irrational to think that this will do less. It doesn't need any huge decline to actually go 600m. I am not sure though. Pirates still have a strong name. If the movie is actually good I can see it doing great business but If it follows the pattern of the last ones quality-wise , 600m would be far from a surprise.

[franfar]

28 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

 

I think Wonder Woman will hurt Pirates OS as well as domestic

The Mummy could also surprise OS due to Tom Cruise's stardom

[FantasticBeasts]

I am also shocked findin out how much the Pirate films cost. I mean, those were really successful but being the most expensive films of all time??? I find it somewhat strange..

[aabattery]

3 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

I am also shocked findin out how much the Pirate films cost. I mean, those were really successful but being the most expensive films of all time??? I find it somewhat strange..

 

Working with water makes your costs shoot up exponentially. Plus Johnny Depp is so integral to the franchise that he can demand an insane amount of money. I think he got paid like $55 million for the last one.

[FantasticBeasts]

4 minutes ago, AABATTERY said:

 

Working with water makes your costs shoot up exponentially. Plus Johnny Depp is so integral to the franchise that he can demand an insane amount of money. I think he got paid like $55 million for the last one.

Well I see..Although the series have been highly successful,still I doubt that they are one of the most profitable ones...Those costs are just huge..

[franfar]

This will probably be the last Pirates movie. Depp is damaged goods, BO and personal life wise. 

 

$320 million?! That's obscene.