Top 10 of 2018 predictions: From JAN 1st 2018 to DEC 31st 2018

[Jonwo]

24 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

If there is a studio that can sell a trailer, it is WB. Is there is name to make people don't mind the YA genre and still go it is Spielberg and he is a bit of a good meta choice director to do a movie that have a lot of pop-culture nostalgia in it, being a big part of it himself.

 

But it is still an hard sales, imo, and not only execution need to be good, recent excellent Spielberg didn't do that well, marketing need to be great.

 

Warner Bros are kings of marketing and releasing it at Easter rather than Summer or holidays does give it some breathing room. 

 

 

Edited May 2, 2017 by Jonwo

[MovieMan89]

Mary Poppins Returns is a pretty huge wildcard. If it's well received, 350-400 wouldn't shock me. The original adjusts to 700m and has pretty much been passed down through the generations in a timeless manner ala Wizard of Oz. That release date is also perfect too for it to dominate the Xmas/New Year stretch. 

 

Incredibles is being overestimated. As much as I'd love all these 500m predictions to come true, I'd say there's no way that it will end up Pixar's biggest movie even adjusted for inflation. I'll be happy with anything over 300 quite frankly, I'm highly doubtful the first has the kind of popularity with today's kids of say Nemo or Toy Story. 

[Apollo2xx]

10 hours ago, YourMother said:

WW top 10 of 2018:

1.) Jurassic World 2: $1.4B

2.) Infinity War: $1.3B

3.) Incredibles 2: $1.05B

4.) Mulan: $950M

5.) Dead2ool: $900M

6.) Han Solo: $870M

7.) Beasts 2: $850M

8.) Grinch: $750M

9.) Aquaman/Black Panther: $700M

10.) Mission Impossible 5: $650M

Finally someone who is not overestimating Infinity War. These 1.8B predictions are just crazy. It's the 19th movie of the MCU, it will keep casual moviegoers away since it'll require knowledge from all previous movies.

 

But I think 950 million it's too high for Mulan, that is BATB and TJB level.

 

Also, I think that FB 2 can do better than 850 million. First one was well received and it will have Dumbledore, so I think 900 million is more doable and even 1 billion is not out of this world.

[YM!]

7 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

Mary Poppins Returns is a pretty huge wildcard. If it's well received, 350-400 wouldn't shock me. The original adjusts to 700m and has pretty much been passed down through the generations in a timeless manner ala Wizard of Oz. That release date is also perfect too for it to dominate the Xmas/New Year stretch. 

 

Incredibles is being overestimated. As much as I'd love all these 500m predictions to come true, I'd say there's no way that it will end up Pixar's biggest movie even adjusted for inflation. I'll be happy with anything over 300 quite frankly, I'm highly doubtful the first has the kind of popularity with today's kids of say Nemo or Toy Story. 

One word my movieman: Nostalgia. For my generation, the millennials, The Incredibles is one of those movies that'll have that power for us. And given the popularity of current superhero movies although it's not a lock but it could happen. Poppins I could see $200M, but it reminds me more of ITW/PATF than Sing.

[YM!]

7 hours ago, Apollo2xx said:

Finally someone who is not overestimating Infinity War. These 1.8B predictions are just crazy. It's the 19th movie of the MCU, it will keep casual moviegoers away since it'll require knowledge from all previous movies.

 

But I think 950 million it's too high for Mulan, that is BATB and TJB level.

 

Also, I think that FB 2 can do better than 850 million. First one was well received and it will have Dumbledore, so I think 900 million is more doable and even 1 billion is not out of this world.

Mulan will have huge amounts of that China money. Beasts 2 is a wild card though.

[YM!]

Predicting Domestic Breakouts:

Black Panther: $110M/$350M

Wrinkle in Time: $75M/$200M

Tomb Raider: $65M/$160M

Ready Player One: $85M/$240M

Magic Camp: $40M/$120M

Rampage: $60M/$155M

Alita: $70M/$210M

SCOOB: $50M/$170M

Mulan: $85M/$280M

Grinch: $100M/$330M

Animated Spider-Man: $35M/$210M

Aquaman: $115M/$345M

Edited May 2, 2017 by YourMother

[YM!]

8 hours ago, Apollo2xx said:

Finally someone who is not overestimating Infinity War. These 1.8B predictions are just crazy. It's the 19th movie of the MCU, it will keep casual moviegoers away since it'll require knowledge from all previous movies.

 

But I think 950 million it's too high for Mulan, that is BATB and TJB level.

 

Also, I think that FB 2 can do better than 850 million. First one was well received and it will have Dumbledore, so I think 900 million is more doable and even 1 billion is not out of this world.

The most Infinity War and IW2 could do is $1.5B, but even then it'd be $500M/$1B or something like that.

[MCKillswitch123]

10 hours ago, UNDERDOG said:

WB are goddamn experts when it comes to marketing the hell out of a film.

 

Just look at the most recent examples, like Suicide Squad, and Kong: Skull Island.

 

Ready Player One is in good hands.

 

Wait a minute, isn't Universal releasing Ready Player One?

 

If it is WB though, then yes, it's in good hands. [Not that it isn't in Universal's, but WB will cream at having a Spielberg movie with them and do what they're the best in the world at doing: promoting the ever loving shit out of it.]

Edited May 2, 2017 by MCKillswitch123

[UNDERDOG]

3 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

Wait a minute, isn't Universal releasing Ready Player One?

 

If it is WB though, then yes, it's in good hands. [Not that it isn't in Universal's, but WB will cream at having a Spielberg movie with them and do what they're the best in the world at doing: promoting the ever loving shit out of it.]

 

Just checked again, and it's definitely WB releasing the film.

[MCKillswitch123]

12 minutes ago, UNDERDOG said:

 

Just checked again, and it's definitely WB releasing the film.

 

Well, I really had it that Spielberg's releases were on Universal from RPO onwards. My mistake, then.

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

Well, I really had it that Spielberg's releases were on Universal from RPO onwards. My mistake, then.

None of the Berg's upcoming releases are Universal:

 

The Post: Fox

RPO: WB

Indy: Disney

Mortara: Weinstein (RIP this movie)

[peludo]

8 hours ago, Apollo2xx said:

Finally someone who is not overestimating Infinity War. These 1.8B predictions are just crazy. It's the 19th movie of the MCU, it will keep casual moviegoers away since it'll require knowledge from all previous movies.

 

But I think 950 million it's too high for Mulan, that is BATB and TJB level.

 

Also, I think that FB 2 can do better than 850 million. First one was well received and it will have Dumbledore, so I think 900 million is more doable and even 1 billion is not out of this world.

I am on the other side. I think $950m is low for Mulan. China should devour it. IMO, Mulan could fly, even easily, over 1 billion.

[MovieMan89]

3 hours ago, YourMother said:

One word my movieman: Nostalgia. For my generation, the millennials, The Incredibles is one of those movies that'll have that power for us. And given the popularity of current superhero movies although it's not a lock but it could happen. Poppins I could see $200M, but it reminds me more of ITW/PATF than Sing.

Predicting that kind of admissions increase for a Pixar sequel doesn't make much sense though. Only TS2 has really increased in admissions over its predecessor, and only by like 5%. 500m for Incredibles 2 would be a 25%+ admissions boost. No way I see that. And remember, nostalgia is only one part of what made Dory and TS3 huge after all those years. The biggest part was that they still had huge appeal with kids today. Not so sure about that with Incredibles. I think 300-350 is a perfectly realistic range for I2. A little more successful than MU adjusted (and Monsters Inc was more successful than the first Incredibles). 

Edited May 2, 2017 by MovieMan89

[AniNate]

I'm a little more optimistic about I2's potential than MovieMan, but I still don't see it challenging Dory. I think a small admissions increase is a possibility which would put it about in line with TS3.

[Jonwo]

3 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

None of the Berg's upcoming releases are Universal:

 

The Post: Fox

RPO: WB

Indy: Disney

Mortara: Weinstein (RIP this movie)

 

Universal distributes the Amblin Partners films domestically but there are exceptions like Ghost in the Shell which was distributed by Paramount and the above mentioned films. 

 

Alsp, the Mortara film isn't being made by TWC, Weinstein has a rival Mortara film in development

Edited May 2, 2017 by Jonwo

[YM!]

1.) Amusement Park $350M OW/$1B (obviously a joke)

1.) Infinity War $210M/$520M

2.) Jurassic World 2: The squeakquel $200M/$500M

3.) The Incredibles 2 $145M/$495M

4.) Han Solo $130M/$400M

5.) Black Panther $120M/$360M

6.) Aquaman $100M/$330M

7.) Dead2ool $140M/$320M

8.) Grinch $80M/$310M

9.) Ready Player One/Mulan $90M/$275M

10.) New Mutants $105M/$260M

11.) Mortal Engines $85M/$250M

12.) Fantastic Beasts 2 $80M/$230M

13.) Animated Spider-Man $30M 3 Day/$55M 5 Day/$220M

14.) Ant Man and The Wasp/Wrinkle In Time $75M/$215M

15.) Mission Impossible 6/Alita: Battle Angel $65M/$200M

15.) Wreck It Ralph 2 $40M 3 Day/$65M 5 Day/$200M

16.) Hotel Transylvania 3 $55M/$180M

17.) Venom $75M/$175M

17.) Dark Phoenix $65M/$175M

18.) Rampage $55M/$160M

18.) Tomb Raider $65M/$160M

19.) Bumblebee/The Predator $65M/$150M

19.) Fifty Shades Freed/Magic Camp $45M/$130M

20.) Poppins Returns $25M 3 Day/$45M 5 Day/$130M

21.) The Invisible Man/Robin Hood/The Pact/Watson and Holmes/O8 $45M/$120M

22.) Jungle Book Origins/Goosebumps 2/Amusement Park/Smallfoot $30M/$105M

23.) Peter Rabbit $25M/$90M

24.) Maze Runner: The Death Cure/Pacific Rim 2/Red Sparrow $35M ($25M)/$85M

 

[FantasticBeasts]

This topic as fun as it may be cannot be accurate.

We do not have even a sinle trace for most of these movies. It is impossible to be spot on. You can have some ranges but reception of each film is vital as well!

[commonsense88]

On Tue May 02 2017 at 9:24 AM, MovieMan89 said:

Predicting that kind of admissions increase for a Pixar sequel doesn't make much sense though. Only TS2 has really increased in admissions over its predecessor, and only by like 5%. 500m for Incredibles 2 would be a 25%+ admissions boost. No way I see that. And remember, nostalgia is only one part of what made Dory and TS3 huge after all those years. The biggest part was that they still had huge appeal with kids today. Not so sure about that with Incredibles. I think 300-350 is a perfectly realistic range for I2. A little more successful than MU adjusted (and Monsters Inc was more successful than the first Incredibles). 

Incredible made huge growth through rental, also audiences been asking for an I2 for years, way more build up demand than FD, it will be a disappointment if it not 450 mil + domestic 

[MovieMan89]

1 hour ago, commonsense88 said:

Incredible made huge growth through rental, also audiences been asking for an I2 for years, way more build up demand than FD, it will be a disappointment if it not 450 mil + domestic 

The internet has been asking for I2 for years. That's a huge difference than saying "audiences" in general have been asking for it, and internet demand is always tricky at best to translate to box office. I maintain that the original is not what you would call a "staple" in the viewing habits of kids today. It's certainly not forgotten among them, but I don't think it has TS or Nemo status in terms of continued popularity with kids. Much more Monsters Inc level, which is why aiming a bit higher than MU adjusted is the smart bet for I2. 

Edited May 4, 2017 by MovieMan89

[AniNate]

I2 seems like more of an actual event than MU which just felt like it was filling space to keep Pixar profitable. If its reviews are on the level of the original I think 375+ is locked.

 

Edited May 4, 2017 by tribefan695