Top 10 of 2018 predictions: From JAN 1st 2018 to DEC 31st 2018

[UNDERDOG]

6 minutes ago, NoobSaibot said:

 

Well, my predictions are never final until the week of release, so my predictions will of course change over time.

 

As an example, I'm expecting Alita: Battle Angel to perform as well as Pacific Rim, and my prediction is only that high because James Cameron is the director.

 

BUT, if marketing actually catches on fire, I'll bump my prediction accordingly. None of these numbers are final. I could end up raising JW2's gross significantly by the time we get a trailer.

 

Cameron isn't directing Alita.

[NoobSaibot]

1 minute ago, UNDERDOG said:

 

Cameron isn't directing Alita.

 

I thought he was. Guess he's just producing it.

 

> Robert Rodriguez

 

YEAH. In that case it's going to be a bust like Ghost in the Shell.

[MCKillswitch123]

1 hour ago, NCsoft said:

 

Seriously the most competitive May/June that I've ever seen...

 

Indeed.

 

But I kinda like it. It's fun that Disney doesn't monopolize the BO for once (even if it's just as much fun to see them annihillate everybody in their way). Infinity War, Han Solo, JW 2, Incredibles 2 and Deadpool 2 all coming out in the same Summer still makes things very much a slaughterhouse in Disney favor (their top three brands - Lucasfilm, Marvel and Pixar - all represented in high fashion), but Fox and Universal get to look competitive for once w/their own flagship franchises (though Universal is doing an excellent job so far this year).

 

Obviously Bumblebee and Ocean's 8 will be lost in the middle of this weight, but ehh, one of them might move either way.

Edited April 24, 2017 by MCKillswitch123

[NCsoft]

56 minutes ago, NoobSaibot said:

 

I thought he was. Guess he's just producing it.

 

> Robert Rodriguez

 

YEAH. In that case it's going to be a bust like Ghost in the Shell.

 

Not necessarily, Cameron is quite seriously about Battle Angel, as this is one of his passion project which he was going to do after Avatar.

Since Cameron hasn't been a producer of very many projects and this may be the first one that he's intimately involved (for a film that he's not directing)

I am fairly optimistic about it and hope that him and Rodriguez will have a good working relationship to make it deliver. I'm not quite looking forward to it to the extent of a Cameron film, but definitely at a higher pedigree then a film with just Rodriguez.

In any case, even if Battle Angel Alita fails completely, the baseline level is got to be still much higher than Ghost in the Shell, it just can't fail that bad...

[NoobSaibot]

35 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

 

Not necessarily, Cameron is quite seriously about Battle Angel, as this is one of his passion project which he was going to do after Avatar.

Since Cameron hasn't been a producer of very many projects and this may be the first one that he's intimately involved (for a film that he's not directing)

I am fairly optimistic about it and hope that him and Rodriguez will have a good working relationship to make it deliver. I'm not quite looking forward to it to the extent of a Cameron film, but definitely at a higher pedigree then a film with just Rodriguez.

In any case, even if Battle Angel Alita fails completely, the baseline level is got to be still much higher than Ghost in the Shell, it just can't fail that bad...

 

I don't doubt either filmmaker's ability. I simply know that recent attempts to adapt Japanese properties (especially anime) have failed spectacularly, even if  they had merit. Alita: Battle Angel is going to be a hard sell in a crowded Summer season, and that's the only reason why I don't expect it to do well. Even outside of Summer 2018, if I look at an unrelated film like The Grinch Who Stole Christmas, I'm convinced that it's easier to sell that film to American audiences. If Alita is even a minor success, I'll consider it a massive victory for Hollywood.

 

The most recent example of a successful adaptation of a Japanese property would have to be Godzilla (2014), and that's because the character is already established as an icon around the world...and naturally, giant monsters destroy shit, so that speaks to Western audiences who seek entertainment. Other than that, the only two other adaptations that made noise were The Ring (2002) and The Grudge (2004). None of these are based on anime.

 

We've seen Dragonball: Evolution, Astro Boy, Speed Racer, and now Ghost in the Shell totally tank. Anime is the hardest medium to convert into a live-action film for numerous reasons. I would like to see Alita break that trend.

Edited April 24, 2017 by NoobSaibot

[cheesypoofs]

Dragonball: Evolution tanked because of how bad it was. Imagine the numbers a faithful, quality Dragonball Z movie with realistic effects would make. I really think that would be a 300m DOM+/1b WW+ film.

[The Futurist]

Cameron is a huuuge anime fan, I think he can do Battle Attila justice.

 

 

[YM!]

Time for some editing due to Disney moving titles.

[YM!]

1.) Amusement Park $350M OW/$1B (obviously a joke)

1.) Infinity War $200M/$505M

2.) Incredibles 2 $150M/$485M

3.) Jurassic World 2: The squeakquel $190M/$475M

4.) Han Solo $130M/$400M

5.) Black Panther $120M/$360M

6.) Aquaman $100M/$330M

7.) Dead2ool $140M/$320M

8.) Grinch $80M/$310M

9.) Ready Player One/Mulan $90M/$275M

10.) New Mutants $105M/$260M

11.) Mortal Engines $85M/$250M

12.) Fantastic Beasts 2 $80M/$230M

13.) Animated Spider-Man $40M/$220M

14.) Ant Man and The Wasp/Wrinkle In Time $75M/$215M

15.) Mission Impossible 6/Alita: Battle Angel $65M/$200M

15.) Wreck It Ralph 2 $40M 3 Day/$65M 5 Day/$200M

16.) Hotel Transylvania 3 $55M/$180M

17.) S.C.O.O.B $55M/$175M

17.) Venom $75M/$175M

17.) Dark Phoenix $65M/$175M

18.) Rampage $55M/$160M

18.) Tomb Raider $65M/$160M

19.) Bumblebee/The Predator $65M/$150M

19.) Fifty Shades Freed/Magic Camp $45M/$130M

20.) Poppins Returns $25M 3 Day/$45M 5 Day/$130M

21.) The Invisible Man/Robin Hood/The Pact/Watson and Holmes/O8 $45M/$120M

22.) Jungle Book Origins/Goosebumps 2/Amusement Park $30M/$105M

23.) Peter Rabbit $25M/$90M

24.) Maze Runner: The Death Cure/Pacific Rim 2/Red Sparrow $35M ($25M)/$85M

25.) Smallfoot $20M/$75M

 

Edited April 27, 2017 by YourMother

[That One Girl]

On 4/11/2017 at 6:17 PM, That One Guy said:

I've been constantly updating my list with release date shit and all that but here's my list bumped to the front of the page:

 

1. Han Solo - 190/570

2. Jurassic World 2 - 200/500

3. Avengers: Infinity War - 180/450

4. How the Grinch Stole Christmas - 110/440

5. Incredibles 2 - 121/425

6. Deadpool 2 - 130/325

7. Black Panther - 130/315

8. Ready Player One - 100/300

9. Animated Spider-Man - 60/300

10. Scooby-Doo - 100/290

11. Mortal Engines - 70/290

12. Mulan - 85/237

13. Alita: Battle Angel - 90/230

14. Ant-Man and the Wasp - 80/210

15. Ocean's 8 - 66/200

16. Venom - 80/184

17. Fantastic Beasts 2 - 65/182

18. Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2 - 45/180

19. First Man - 30/180

20. Aquaman - 45/158

21. Rampage - 60/156

22. Mary Poppins Returns - 20/155

23. Mission: Impossible 6 - 50/150

24. Cruella - 45/150

25. Bohemian Rhapsody - 25/148

26. Hotel Transylvania 3 - 45/144

27. Halloween - 40/130

28. Predator - 45/122

29. Peter Rabbit - 34/121

30. New Mutants - 50/120

31. The Pact - 40/120

32. Dark Phoenix - 45/115

33. Jungle Book: Origins - 40/110

34. Action Point - 40/100

35. Holmes and Watson - 33/100

36. Bumblebee - 40/96

37. A Wrinkle in Time - 30/93

38. Tomb Raider - 40/90

39. Red Sparrow - 35/88

40. Scarface - 20/80

41. Smallfoot - 22/79

42. Purge 4 - 33/76

43. Fifty Shades Freed - 35/75

44. Invisible Man - 30/72

45. The Nun - 30/70

46. White Boy Rick - 24/72

47. Amusement Park - 20/70

48. Night School - 25/68

49. Anubis - 20/66

50. Bad Boys for Life - 30/64

51. The Darkest Minds - 25/65

52. Proud Mary - 21/64

53. Skyscraper - 25/63

54. Meg - 25/61

55. Slenderman - 30/60

56. Pacific Rim 2 - 28/60

57. Game Night - 20/60

58. Goosebumps 2 - 15/60

59. Barbie - 19/57

60. Maze Runner: Death Cure - 20/55

61. Widows - 15/51

62. A Star is Born - 16/50

63. Sherlock Gnomes - 15/46

64. Life of the Party - 18/45

65. Equalizer 2 - 17/42

66. Horse Soldiers - 16/42

67. Insidious: Chapter 4 - 20/41

68. The Girl in the Spider's Web - 15/39

69. The Commuter - 15/38

70. Magic Camp - 11/33

71. Robin Hood - 15/30

72. The Kid Who Would be King - 10/30

73. Simon vs. The Homo Sapiens Agenda (which is probably the Greg Berlanti flick) - 10/28

74. Den of Thieves - 12/25

75. A Quiet Place - 10/24

76. Extinction - 10/23

77. God's Not Dead 3 - 7/20

78. Entebbe - 5/12

79. Cadaver - 5/10

 

updated

[Jonwo]

35 minutes ago, YourMother said:

1.) Amusement Park $350M OW/$1B (obviously a joke)

1.) Infinity War $200M/$505M

2.) Incredibles 2 $150M/$485M

3.) Jurassic World 2: The squeakquel $190M/$475M

4.) Han Solo $130M/$400M

5.) Black Panther $120M/$360M

6.) Aquaman $100M/$330M

7.) Dead2ool $140M/$320M

8.) Grinch $80M/$310M

9.) Ready Player One/Mulan $90M/$275M

10.) New Mutants $105M/$260M

11.) Mortal Engines $85M/$250M

12.) Fantastic Beasts 2 $80M/$230M

13.) Animated Spider-Man $30M 3 Day/$55M 5 Day/$220M

14.) Ant Man and The Wasp/Wrinkle In Time $75M/$215M

15.) Mission Impossible 6/Alita: Battle Angel $65M/$200M

15.) Wreck It Ralph 2 $40M 3 Day/$65M 5 Day/$200M

16.) Hotel Transylvania 3 $55M/$180M

17.) S.C.O.O.B $55M/$175M

17.) Venom $75M/$175M

17.) Dark Phoenix $65M/$175M

18.) Rampage $55M/$160M

18.) Tomb Raider $65M/$160M

19.) Bumblebee/O8/The Predator $65M/$150M

19.) Fifty Shades Freed/Magic Camp $45M/$130M

20.) Poppins Returns $25M 3 Day/$45M 5 Day/$130M

21.) The Invisible Man/Robin Hood/The Pact/Watson and Holmes $45M/$120M

22.) Jungle Book Origins/Goosebumps 2/Amusement Park $30M/$105M

23.) Peter Rabbit $25M/$90M

24.) Maze Runner: The Death Cure/Pacific Rim 2/Red Sparrow $35M ($25M)/$85M

25.) Smallfoot $20M/$75M

 

 

A Wrinkle in Time will be lucky to reach $40m never mind $75m, I think a lot of those predictions are too high especially for things like The New Mutants, SCOOB etc or too low like Mary Poppins Returns 

[YM!]

10 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

 

A Wrinkle in Time will be lucky to reach $40m never mind $75m, I think a lot of those predictions are too high especially for things like The New Mutants, SCOOB etc or too low like Mary Poppins Returns 

As with Get Out and probably Black Panther, the reason why I have Wrinkle and Spidey so high ($200M+), is that audience have grown an interest in African American led movies. Not to mention 3D and IMAX along with Oprah helps. SCOOB, I see it acting similar to HT2/LB/SOOW ($170M-$175M), since Halloween is around the corner and has nostalgia power. New Mutants seems like one of those outlier superhero movies, not to mention movies like THG, Twilight, and now SS have really appealed to teenagers. Mary Poppins reminds more of PATF/ITW type movie.

 

I am curious to see your predictions.

Edited April 25, 2017 by YourMother

[fabiopazzo2]

Impossible Han Solo movie over 170 OW 

[Jonwo]

2 minutes ago, YourMother said:

As with Get Out and probably Black Panther, the reason why I have Wrinkle and Spidey so high ($200M+), is that audience have grown an interest in African American led movies. Not to mention 3D and IMAX along with Oprah helps. SCOOB, I see it acting similar to HT2/LB/SOOW ($170M-$175M), since Halloween is around the corner and has nostalgia power. New Mutants seems like one of those outlier superhero movies, not to mention movies like THG, Twilight, and now SS have really appealed to teenagers. Mary Poppins reminds more of PATF/ITW type movie.

 

I am curious to see your predictions.

 

An X-Men spin-off without the main cast or Deadpool is not going to do huge numbers from the get go, If it does $55-60m OW, Fox will be more than happy. 

 

 

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

 

An X-Men spin-off without the main cast or Deadpool is not going to do huge numbers from the get go, If it does $55-60m OW, Fox will be more than happy. 

 

 

Agreed on that Fox would be happy with a $60M/$150M run for NM, however being a new cast of Mutants not shown in film or previous films for that matter has some advantages. Kind of like GOTG.

Edited April 25, 2017 by YourMother

[Jonwo]

With Ralph moved to November, I could see Fox swapping Red Sparrow and Anubis so there is an animated film on 2nd March or WB could move Smallfoot to 2nd March which I doubt since they already have two other films in March alone.

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

With Ralph moved to November, I could see Fox swapping Red Sparrow and Anubis so there is an animated film on 2nd March or WB could move Smallfoot to 2nd March which I doubt since they already have two other films in March alone.

Anubis I don't think is happening anymore, Smallfoot should move to that spot.

[YM!]

1.) Amusement Park $350M OW/$1B (obviously a joke)

1.) Infinity War $210M/$520M

2.) Jurassic World 2: The squeakquel $200M/$500M

3.) The Incredibles 2 $145M/$495M

4.) Han Solo $130M/$400M

5.) Black Panther $120M/$360M

6.) Aquaman $100M/$330M

7.) Dead2ool $140M/$320M

8.) Grinch $80M/$310M

9.) Ready Player One/Mulan $90M/$275M

10.) New Mutants $105M/$260M

11.) Mortal Engines $85M/$250M

12.) Fantastic Beasts 2 $80M/$230M

13.) Animated Spider-Man $30M 3 Day/$55M 5 Day/$220M

14.) Ant Man and The Wasp/Wrinkle In Time $75M/$215M

15.) Mission Impossible 6/Alita: Battle Angel $65M/$200M

15.) Wreck It Ralph 2 $40M 3 Day/$65M 5 Day/$200M

16.) Hotel Transylvania 3 $55M/$180M

17.) S.C.O.O.B $55M/$175M

17.) Venom $75M/$175M

17.) Dark Phoenix $65M/$175M

18.) Rampage $55M/$160M

18.) Tomb Raider $65M/$160M

19.) Bumblebee/The Predator $65M/$150M

19.) Fifty Shades Freed/Magic Camp $45M/$130M

20.) Poppins Returns $25M 3 Day/$45M 5 Day/$130M

21.) The Invisible Man/Robin Hood/The Pact/Watson and Holmes/O8 $45M/$120M

22.) Jungle Book Origins/Goosebumps 2/Amusement Park $30M/$105M

23.) Peter Rabbit $25M/$90M

24.) Maze Runner: The Death Cure/Pacific Rim 2/Red Sparrow $35M ($25M)/$85M

25.) Smallfoot $20M/$75M

[commonsense88]

15 hours ago, Jonwo said:

 

A Wrinkle in Time will be lucky to reach $40m never mind $75m, I think a lot of those predictions are too high especially for things like The New Mutants, SCOOB etc or too low like Mary Poppins Returns 

Winkle in time is also a family movie based on a beloved novel, built in fan base that is sci do fantasy, should make at least 200 mil, would have had an easier time in empty April though.

[YM!]

Animated Spider-Man pushed up to 12/14/18 against Mortal Engines.

Edited April 27, 2017 by YourMother