Weekend Estimates: Kong 61M, Logan 37.8M, Get Out 21M, Shack 10M, Lego Batman 7.8M

[Alli]

Just now, Ozymandias said:

 

 

 

Even terrible movies like BVS and SS in an oversaturated CBM market are easily making over 300m right now.

 

cbm are all the rage right now. it's trendy to watch cbm

 

i think x-men don't do that good these days because they have a long history behind them. you needed to watch from the beginning to get it. too many mutants...

[YSLDC]

Already down to 47m. Variety. 

[ACSlater]

Well my Kong IMAX ticket went to a waste...late Friday night and still at work...

 

F*cking hell, I knew I should have gotten it for tomorrow or something...

[grim22]

3 minutes ago, YSLDC said:

Already down to 47m. Variety. 

 

Their Friday number is the same as the others, they are extrapolating based on Godzilla instead of the others extrapolating based on San Andreas. Looks like we will be seeing an 18-20M Friday for a 50-55M weekend unless late shows collapse.

[DAJK]

Like just a tiny rant there's this Facebook page in my town and people can rant or rave about whatever they want and there's literally thousands of members. A common rant is always concession prices at the movie theatre, but this one that got a lot of attention today were how slow the staff are.

 

LMAO OK FIRST OF ALL we're pretty damn fast, it's the customers who always show up to the till like "ya give me a minute I don't know what I want yet... how big is a small popcorn... ok how big is a medium popcorn... ok how big is a large popcorn... ok how much is a small popcorn... ok how much is a medium popcorn... how many calories in your large root beer? What do you mean you don't serve diet sprite? sorry what time are the show times next Wednesday." Like it gets rough. Even on the tills there's a timer that times how long it takes once you actually start punching in their order to when they get their stuff and our theatre's average is one of the lowest in the company with like 24 seconds. All that extra time is cause these people never know what the hell they want ?

 

I just need to rant to people who might understand

Edited March 10, 2017 by DAJK

[PPZVGOS]

17 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

 

Spider-man adjusted: 601m

Spider-man 2 adjusted: 520m

Spider-man 3 adjusted: 423m

Iron Man adjusted: 383m

Batman Begins adjusted: 277m (and this was coming off of Batman and Robin)

 

Even terrible movies like BVS and SS in an oversaturated CBM market are easily making over 300m right now.

 

 

Both you and @Hiccup21 are adjusting the wrong way. Here's the right way: http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/

[PPZVGOS]

17 minutes ago, Alli said:

cbm are all the rage right now. it's trendy to watch cbm

 

i think x-men don't do that good these days because they have a long history behind them. you needed to watch from the beginning to get it. too many mutants...

 

X-Men are not as big as Batman/Superman/Spiderman and RDJ as Iron Man or Ryan Reynolds as Deadpool for that matter. Compared to anyone else in the Marvel/DC canon, the X-Men are right up there. 

[Eevin]

3 minutes ago, PPZVGOS said:

 

Both you and @Hiccup21 are adjusting the wrong way. Here's the right way: http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/

Explain to me how that's the right way? I know this shows the comparative value of the US dollar, but the BOM adjusters are based on ticket price inflation, which is entirely different.

[baumer]

GO on pace for 20?

[CJohn]

2 minutes ago, baumer said:

GO on pace for 20?

Yes.

[Eevin]

1 minute ago, baumer said:

GO on pace for 20?

With a $6m Friday, playing like last weekend gets it to $21.2m. Deadline said $6m last week though, so that number could potentially go higher.

[grey ghost]

9 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Like just a tiny rant there's this Facebook page in my town and people can rant or rave about whatever they want and there's literally thousands of members. A common rant is always concession prices at the movie theatre, but this one that got a lot of attention today were how slow the staff are.

 

LMAO OK FIRST OF ALL we're pretty damn fast, it's the customers who always show up to the till like "ya give me a minute I don't know what I want yet... how big is a small popcorn... ok how big is a medium popcorn... ok how big is a large popcorn... ok how much is a small popcorn... ok how much is a medium popcorn... how many calories in your large root beer? What do you mean you don't serve diet sprite? sorry what time are the show times next Wednesday." Like it gets rough. Even on the tills there's a timer that times how long it takes once you actually start punching in their order to when they get their stuff and our theatre's average is one of the lowest in the company with like 24 seconds. All that extra time is cause these people never know what the hell they want ?

 

I just need to rant to people who might understand

 

 

I know I'm pickier when the price is higher.

 

If I'm paying 15 dollars for snacks, I'm going to need a little more time. 

[PPZVGOS]

1 minute ago, Eevin said:

Explain to me how that's the right way? I know this shows the comparative value of the US dollar, but the BOM adjusters are based on ticket price inflation, which is entirely different.

 

Studios and theater chains made the conscious decision to raise ticket prices above the rate of inflation. They clearly believe/estimate that more money is to be made with less admissions but more bang (value) per admission. Now, taking the admissions achieved by movies with much lower (in real, not just nominal terms) ticket prices and extrapolating those low-cost admissions with today's high cost prices is really bad economics. You are basically assuming that even if ticket prices circa 2000 were 20% (or so) higher, X-Men would still have sold just as many tickets, something which is frankly, outright impossible. 

[Barnack]

7 minutes ago, PPZVGOS said:

 

Both you and @Hiccup21 are adjusting the wrong way. Here's the right way: http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/

 

There is not right/bad way to adjust stuff like that (well you can make mistake) it depend what you are trying to search.

 

If you are talking about adjusting how much money the movie made at the box office, US inflation is the way to go.

 

It you want to adjust how popular a movie was or how much a similar run would make today, market share or ticket sold are usually a better way to go than going by US inflation.

[Blaze Heatnix]

Logan has made 305 million worldwide, so far.

 

If it makes 35 million domestic for its second weekend, it'll be at 340 million worldwide.

 

No idea about overseas numbers, considering they haven't been updated since March 7th, on boxofficemojo.  I believe we'll get something between 450-460 million worldwide by the end of this weekend. 

 

It'll probably make 500 million worldwide before the official worldwide release of Beauty and the Beast.  So, whatever the movie makes after getting the 500 million figure, is a plus. Movie is already a hit and nothing can change that.

[Gavin Feng]

Kong can make $50m OW?

Edited March 10, 2017 by Gavin Feng

[Eevin]

9 minutes ago, PPZVGOS said:

 

Studios and theater chains made the conscious decision to raise ticket prices above the rate of inflation. They clearly believe/estimate that more money is to be made with less admissions but more bang (value) per admission. Now, taking the admissions achieved by movies with much lower (in real, not just nominal terms) ticket prices and extrapolating those low-cost admissions with today's high cost prices is really bad economics. You are basically assuming that even if ticket prices circa 2000 were 20% (or so) higher, X-Men would still have sold just as many tickets, something which is frankly, outright impossible. 

Granted, but I don't think anyone's trying to see how a movie in 2000 would have performed today. Adjusters are extremely hypothetical, and the only question they ask is "if --- sold as many tickets today as it did when it was released, how much would it make?" There's not much in the way of economics there.

Edited March 10, 2017 by Eevin

[Barnack]

2 minutes ago, PPZVGOS said:

 

something which is frankly, outright impossible. 

 

You are certainly right, but that is not easy to estimate because it went faster than inflation in part because the product offered also changed, the ratio of high quality stadium size room, special screen (3d or others big sound stuff) vs the non multiplex smaller screen/drive-in went up, making it harder to predict by how much a movie like X-men would have sold less ticket at a higher average price in the context that it would have offer more in average also (for example 3D). 

 

 

[PPZVGOS]

11 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

There is not right/bad way to adjust stuff like that (well you can make mistake) it depend what you are trying to search.

 

If you are talking about adjusting how much money the movie made at the box office, US inflation is the way to go.

 

It you want to adjust how popular a movie was or how much a similar run would make today, market share or ticket sold are usually a better way to go than going by US inflation.

 

2 minutes ago, Eevin said:

Granted, but I don't think anyone's trying to see how a movie in 2000 would have performed today. Adjusters are extremely hypothetical, and the only question they ask is "if --- sold as many tickets today as it did when it was released, how much would it make?" There's not much in the way of economics there.

 

In capitalist society there's only *ONE* way to measure things, and that is by $$$. As cynical as it sounds, real $$$-value is the only relevant factor, everything else can be ignored. 

[PPZVGOS]

2 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

You are certainly right, but that is not easy to estimate because it went faster than inflation in part because the product offered also changed, the ratio of high quality stadium size room, special screen (3d or others big sound stuff) vs the non multiplex smaller screen/drive-in went up, making it harder to predict by how much a movie like X-men would have sold less ticket at a higher average price in the context that it would have offer more in average also (for example 3D). 

 

 

 

What we know about 2000's X-Men (for example) is that it made around $157M DOM. We can adjust that 2000 dollar value in 2017 dollar value and find the equivalent. Those are the only objective pieces of information we possess. BTW, $157M from 2000 translates into around $221M in 2017 USD. That sounds very reasonable to me.