The Summer Game 2017 | Beans have been counted, sprouts measured, zombies destroyed, and Tele relegated to... oh wait better not... | Let the Pre-Season Reveals begin ...

[chasmmi]

12 hours ago, Matrix4You said:

Chasmmi and I discussed the prospects of me volunteering to sub-in to grade the weekly s.  Week 9 should be posted in less than 1 day.  Please PM me if you catch an error.  I copy and pasted everyone's part #2 into excel so I am pretty confident those will always be 100% correct.  Part A and C were looked over twice.  You will be in good hands.

 

You did everything right, the only mistake you made was forgetting to summon @JJ-8, to turn that data into an overall score chart  

[dxmatrixdt]

week 9 should be done in about 1 hour. 

gonna show proof of work for part B....I am copying and pasting into excel.  it will reduce human error by eliminating calculator errors.

[dxmatrixdt]

from there I can remove the suffix labels

[dxmatrixdt]

then clean up the data and modify the entire row to 6 digits.

apply the answer next door and get ready to enter formula

[dxmatrixdt]

and there you have it...

[dxmatrixdt]

^^ I showed this to show the procedure just to calm the millions of people who may be skeptical.  One might ask "who is this stranger and how can we trust him with our predictions?"

well, hopefully this will help calm the world.

[BadAtGender]

So close, yet so far, on question 3.

[dxmatrixdt]

The actual week 9 answers

 

Part A:

 

1. Will Despicable Me Open to more than $100M? 1000  NO  

2. Will The House Open to more than $25M? 2000  NO

3. Will Baby Driver have a 5 day of more than $22M? 3000  YES

4. Will the three main openers combine to more than $150M? 4000  NO

5. Will The House overtake Baby Drivers Domestic Total by the end of the weekend? 5000  NO

 

6. Will Wonder Woman drop less than 40%  1000  YES

7. Will Transformers drop more than 57.5% 2000  YES

8. Will All Eyez Stay above Captain Underpants? 3000   YES

9. Will Guardians 2 have a lower percentage drop than Pirates 5? 4000  YES

10. Will it comes at Night drop more than 65%? 5000  YES

 

11. Will Will Big Sick  have a PTA above $10k? 1000  YES

12. Will 13 minutes have a PTA above $6,000? 2000   NO

13. Will Rough Night have a PTA above $900? 3000   NO   

14. Will My Neighbour Totoro's apparent Sunday release be reported in BOM's Weekend Actuals list? 4000 NO

15. Will Tele finally be taken in by the subtle brilliance that is the Minions? 5000  FREE POINTS

 

Bonus: 

 

9/15    5000

10/15   8000

11/15    12,000

12/15   16,000 

13/15    20,000

14/15    24,000 

 15/15   30,000  

 

 

Part B:

 

The top 3 predictions will score points as follows:

 

Closest:  Within 1% - 15,000,  Within 2,5% - 12000,   Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000  Outside 10% - 3000 points  

2nd Closest:  Within 1% - 12,000,  Within 2,5% - 10000,   Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000  Outside 10% - 2000 points

3rd Closest:  Within 1% - 10,000,  Within 2,5% - 8000,   Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000  Outside 10% - 1000 points

 

1. What will Despicable make for its 3 day OW?   $72.434M

2. What will be the difference in The House and Baby Driver's total gross by the end of Sunday? $20.856m

3. What will All Eyez of Me's Domestic gross be by the end of Sunday? $42.677M

 

 

Part C:

 

There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here:

 

2.  BABY DRIVER

4. WONDER WOMAN

7.  47 METRES DOWN

10. PIRATES 

12.  BIG SICK

16.   BEATRIZ

 

Because I realised bonuses are stupid...

 

1/6   4,000

2/6   10,000

3/6   18,000

4/6   25,000

5/6   36,000

6/6 - 50,000

[dxmatrixdt]

[jj99]

Excellent Job @Matrix4You

[JJ-8]

4 hours ago, chasmmi said:

 

You did everything right, the only mistake you made was forgetting to summon @JJ-8, to turn that data into an overall score chart  

 

Consider me summoned! 

[JJ-8]

17 hours ago, Matrix4You said:

Chasmmi and I discussed the prospects of me volunteering to sub-in to grade the weekly s.  Week 9 should be posted in less than 1 day.  Please PM me if you catch an error.  I copy and pasted everyone's part #2 into excel so I am pretty confident those will always be 100% correct.  Part A and C were looked over twice.  You will be in good hands.

 

Can you post in as a table from excel... images don't work too work when i copy into my spreadsheets

 

EDIT - btw... fantastic job .... 

 

 

[JJ-8]

On 6/11/2017 at 8:49 PM, JJ-8 said:

Right time to update

 

Weekly Totals first ->

 

Big mover this week.  @Matrix4You moved up 5 spots into the top spot thanks to his week 5 score!  24lost slipped to 2nd, spaghetti jumped to equal 2nd , darkelf closing  in also into 4th and simionski rounding out the 5 - also moving up 5 spots.  Of note both kayumanggi and damnitgeorge crashedout to 8th and 9th respectively from a top 3 spot.

 

#	User	Weekly's Total	Week 4	Week 5
1	Matrix4You	388,000	74000	98000
2	24Lost	370,000	61000	76000
3	Spaghetti	370,000	68000	78000
4	darkelf	369,000	91000	74000
5	Simionski	356,000	96000	65000
6	Chasmmi	352,000	72000	71000
7	Baumer	335,000	67000	50000
8	kayumanggi	332,000	45000	63000
9	damnitgeorge08	327,000	36000	62000
10	Jake Gittes	311,000	64000	61000
11	WrathofHan	309,000	81000	65000
12	The Panda	306,000	58000	44000
13	Chewy	298,000	84000	58000
14	Wrath	295,000	73000	61000
15	grim22	290,000	79000	42000
16	Grey Ghost	287,000	91000	64000
17	Fancyarcher	287,000	87000	70000
18	Alfred	283,000	61000	72000
19	Exxdee	277,000	88000	63000
20	That One Guy	276,000	61000	35000
21	Kalo	268,000	38000	64000
22	Blankments	267,000	49000	36000
23	aabattery	262,000	40000	36000
24	DamienRoc	259,000	72000	44000
25	bcf26	256,000	46000	35000
26	franfar	252,000	31000	66000
27	Empire	229,000	47000	53000
28	Water Bottle	220,000	42000	38000
29	narniadis	217,000	73000	51000
30	glassfairy	215,000	61000
31	Telemachos	209,000	57000	48000
32	jj99	200,000	38000	56000
33	JJ-8	174,000	38000	42000
34	MrPink	133,000
35	MovieMan89	110,000		52000
36	#ED	49,000
37	cmasterclay	44,000
38	Tree	36,000
39	BastienGiot	0
40	Mike Hunt	0
41	Goffe	0

 

 

 

ok reminder of where we all were before i add in weeks 6 - 9

 

[JJ-8]

ok So .....

 

Weekly Update - Weeks 6 - 9

 

It seems @Matrix4You has managed to extend his lead out to over 50k ahead of now darkelf.  of note, @Spaghetti of 1000 Planets has dropped of the pace thanks to his lack of answers in week 7.

 

#	User	Weekly's Total	Week 6	Week 7	Week 8	Week 9
1	Matrix4You	718,000	69000	76000	112000	73000
2	darkelf	665,000	37000	74000	99000	86000
3	Simionski	650,000	48000	76000	118000	52000
4	24Lost	631,000	54000	85000	69000	53000
5	kayumanggi	628,000	58000	68000	87000	83000
6	Jake Gittes	627,000	62000	77000	106000	71000
7	The Panda	609,000	60000	55000	103000	85000
8	Exxdee	606,000	63000	108000	101000	57000
9	Spaghetti	606,000	70000		95000	71000
10	Baumer	598,000	42000	82000	68000	71000
11	Chasmmi	584,000	34000	53000	77000	68000
12	Alfred	580,000	51000	67000	103000	76000
13	WrathofHan	579,000	58000	76000	72000	64000
14	Chewy	573,000	49000	69000	84000	73000
15	Wrath	565,000	53000	82000	58000	77000
16	Fancyarcher	562,000	54000	74000	84000	63000
17	aabattery	556,000	49000	76000	98000	71000
18	damnitgeorge08	546,000	54000	88000	77000
19	Grey Ghost	544,000	44000	69000	78000	66000
20	jj99	518,000	75000	82000	86000	75000
21	Blankments	517,000	47000	84000	76000	43000
22	Kalo	510,000	30000	67000	82000	63000
23	That One Guy	464,000	27000	31000	87000	43000
24	Empire	463,000	52000	61000	41000	80000
25	DamienRoc	459,000	35000	56000	71000	38000
26	Telemachos	422,000	57000	60000	54000	42000
27	franfar	413,000		52000	53000	56000
28	Water Bottle	411,000	71000	24000	37000	59000
29	bcf26	388,000	33000	49000		50000
30	glassfairy	387,000	53000		57000	62000
31	JJ-8	352,000		65000	64000	49000
32	grim22	290,000
33	narniadis	250,000	33000
34	MovieMan89	144,000	34000
35	MrPink	133,000
36	#ED	49,000
37	cmasterclay	44,000
38	Tree	36,000
39	BastienGiot	0
40	Goffe	0
41	Mike Hunt	0

[That One Girl]

Fuck I'm out of the top half.

 

Fuck you Tele.

[Premium George]

I was doing good in weeklys. By the time of winter game, I would be completely free. Great work conducting this game.

[JJ-8]

SOTM etc review :

 

QOTW - refer to that thread... so nothing to post here yet

 

SOTM1 : (Over / Under / Half / Double) Green means final answer.

1. King Arthur - $67M UNDER

2. Lowriders - $15.3M UNDER OR HALF

3. Snatched - $85M UNDER

4. Diary of a Wimpy Kid - $32M UNDER

5. Everything Everything - $26M OVER

 

6. It Comes at Night - $39M UNDER OR HALF

7. Captain Underpants - $93.5M UNDER

8. All Eyes on Me - $49M UNDER

It's at 43m after the current weekend.  chances of reaching 49m seem slim as it's coming off a 2.5m 5 day.  I'm calling it Under.

9. Rough Night - $80M UNDER OR HALF

10. Cars 3 - $180M UNDER

Could be early but i'm seeing about 150m or 160m at most for Cars 3 right now.  120m after last weekend.  Already trailing Cars 2 at the same point by 28m and that film only made 191m.. so yeah this is an under.

 

So yep will be scoring SOTM1 in a moment.

 

SOTM2 : Can't be scored until game end.

SOTM4 : can't be scored until game end.

SOTM5 : can't be scored until game end.

SOTM6 : 3 films... what will they pass...

Wonder Woman : 356m is locked to pass all 10 films listed with highest listed at 363m

The Mummy : 76m only spots 7 - 10 remaing to be passed... Rocky 2 was #10 with 85m.  9 Freddyvjason 82m and the purge #8 79.  think it passes 8 and possibly 9.

Captain Underpants : 70m about to  pass spot 2, could land anywhere from 3rd (74m) to 6th (85m - unlikely) in my mind

SOTM7 : end of game

SOTM8 : yeah .. just closed

 

 

[JJ-8]

Just reviewing BOTM 1 also:

 

GOTG2 Multiplier

OW = 146,510,104

 

1) Less than 2.25

2) 2.25-2.35

3) 2.36-2.44

4) 2.45-2.55

Current Actual = 2.62439

5) 2.56-2.65

2.65 multipler = 388m

6) 2.66-2.75

7) More than 2.76

8) Any multiplier above 2.50

 

I've already crossed those answers which are wrong.  Option 8 is locked in.  the question mark is whether GOTG2 passes 388.251m (2.65) which pushes it from option 5 to option 6.

 

I'm scoring it now  I'm scoring as if option  5 is  correct (8 is already) and 6 is  incorrect.  I've highlighted in yellow if you are affect by this.  i'm scoring as shown and will changed back if GOTG2 manages 388m (which is very possible.... i'm on the fence right now.) 

 

Player	Option	Score
that one guy	5	30,000
aabattery	5	30,000
jake gittes	5	30,000
franfar	8	20,000
empire	8	20,000
matrix4you	8	20,000
simionski	8	20,000
jj-8	8	20,000
24lost	8	20,000
narniadis	8	20,000
wrathofhan	abstain	5,000
wrath	abstain	5,000
Alfred	abstain	5,000
exxdee	abstain	5,000
damnitgeorge08	abstain	5,000
the panda	abstain	5,000
jj99	abstain	5,000
kayumanggi	abstain	5,000
spaghetti	abstain	5,000
chasmmi	abstain	5,000
bcf26	abstain	5,000
glassfairy	abstain	5,000
darkelf	abstain	5,000
mrpink	abstain	5,000
damienroc	abstain	5,000
water bottle	2	-15,000
chewy	2	-15,000
telemachos	4	-20,000
baumer	4	-20,000
grim22	3	-20,000
fancyarcher	3	-20,000
grey ghost	3	-20,000
blankments	6	-30,000

[JJ-8]

SOTM 1 Answers

 

PART A:

 

Below are 10 films due for release between the start of the game and June 16th, along with their predicted total grosses according to http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-cars-3-rough-night-eyez/

 

 

1. King Arthur - $67M  UNDER (38.9m Projected 40m max)

2. Lowriders - $15.3M UNDER / HALF (6.2m no longer being tracked)

3. Snatched - $85M UNDER (45.7m Projected under 46m total)

4. Diary of a Wimpy Kid - $32M UNDER (20.5m Projected under 20.8m)

5. Everything Everything - $26M OVER (33.7m Projected under 34m)

 

6. It Comes at Night - $39M UNDER / HALF (13.6m Projected under 14m)

7. Captain Underpants - $93.5M UNDER (70m Projected under 73m)

8. All Eyes on Me - $49M UNDER (43.5m Projected 45m - at that the rate it's falling)

9. Rough Night - $80M UNDER / HALF (21.1m Projected under 24m ~ big screen loss this week)

10. Cars 3 - $180M UNDER (126.7m Project 160m total)

 

All you have to do is predict whether the predictions above are too high, or too low. You can choose to predict for as many or as few films as you wish. 

 

If you wish to go further, you could also choose to wager that a film will make less than half or more than double the above predictions. These predictions have bigger risks and bigger rewards.

 

Predictions will be scored as follows:

 

Correct High/Low Prediction - 8000 points

Correct Double/Half Prediction - 20000 points

 

Incorrect High/Low Prediction - Minus 6000 points

Incorrect Double/Half Prediction - Minus 15000 points

 

PART B:

 

Here are 10 questions: 

 

1. Which film not called Lowriders will be the lowest grossing? It comes at night

2. Which non-animated film will be the highest grossing? Snatched 

All eyez on me could make 46m but i given it's dropping half it's theatres i think we should expected another large weekend drop.

3. Will a non-animated film on that list make the main games Domestic Top 15 list? NO (not a chance)

4. Will any film double its predicted gross? NO (not even close)

5. Will any film fail to reach half of its predicted gross? YES (3 did)

 

6. Will the actual combined total gross for the 10 films be higher or lower than the predicted total gross? LOWER

7. Percentage wise, what will be boxoffice.com's best prediction? All eyez on me

8. Percentage wise, what will be boxoffice.com's worst prediction? Rough Night

It comes at night is around 34%.  Rough Night at 27% and given it's bleeding screens this week  (76%) we have a winner

9. Will 3 or more of these films open in the number 2 position? NO

10. Will 2 or more of these films open in 5th or lower? YES

 

Predictions will be scored as follows:

 

Number of correct answers in Part A x Number of correct answers in Part B x 1000

 

So if you got 6 correct in part A and 4 correct in part B, you will score: 6 x 4 x 1000 = 24,000 points for part B. 

 

There is no risk of losing points in part B. 

 

 

There is also the option to abstain from this question. If you state that you Abstain in this Thread, you will receive 3000 points

 

Any player who does not predict or state abstain in this thread will lose 8000 points

 

[WrathOfHan]

BOTM 2:

 

Multis with some forecasting:

 

Wonder Woman: Worst case scenario is it finishes with 380M. 380-206.6=173.4. Divide that by 58.5M and you get 2.96x. If it hits 400M, it'll be 3.31x.

Mummy: Let's say it finishes with 82M. That gets it a 2.59x.

Captain Underpants: With the TC drop it's having this weekend, it has 2-3M max left in the tank, so let's go with 73M. That translates to a 2.34x.

POTC: Let's stay pessimistic and say it finishes at 172M. That means a 3.38x.

GOTG: Being pessimistic again, let's say it tops out at 388M. It would be a 3.43x.

ICAN: It's multi is basically 2.33x.

Baywatch: It's done making anything substantial. If it finishes at 59M, that means a 1.72x.

Megan Leavey: Let's say it gets to 13M. That means a 3.42x. Worst case scenario is it crumbles and finishes at 12.5M. That would be 3.29x.

 

GOTG is safe regardless. It's all a matter of which 2 of WW, POTC, and Megan round it out.