The Summer Game 2017 | Beans have been counted, sprouts measured, zombies destroyed, and Tele relegated to... oh wait better not... | Let the Pre-Season Reveals begin ...

[Premium George]

1 hour ago, baumer said:

Sorry. I missed yours. Nice job.

More like lucky job.

[Chewy]

I like how everyone always has the same answer in Question of the Week haha

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, Chewy said:

I like how everyone always has the same answer in Question of the Week haha

@aabattery  

[baumer]

5 hours ago, Chewy said:

I like how everyone always has the same answer in Question of the Week haha

 

Why wouldn't we?

[narniadis]

ugh missed another week... I was traveling all day Thursday and just didn't have the time *sigh* another feather for my worst performing game ever...

[Chewy]

2 hours ago, baumer said:

 

Why wouldn't we?

 

We would of course, I just think it's funny. Either we all get points or it ends, every week

[baumer]

At this point, the summer game has fucked almost everyone in one way or another.

 

King Arthur tanked

Snatched is nowhere near the top ten]

Alien might make it, but might not

Baywatch came in way under expectations

Captain Underpants has an outside chance...very outside...at this point it's not guaranteed to outgross Alien

Mummy is going to do around Alien numbers so again...not guaranteed but might squeak in

Rough Night just out and out tanked

All Eyez isn't going to make it.

 

So taking all of this into account, what the hell is the top 15 going to look like?  Or, will the bottom of the top 15 be filled with films that gross around 65 million?  Maybe we see breaks outs from Baby Driver, Girl's Trip, Atomic Blond and something like Detroit and Hitman's Bodyguard.  

 

It's been an extremely disappointing start to the summer so far for anything not done by MCU and DC.

 

[aabattery]

5 minutes ago, baumer said:

At this point, the summer game has fucked almost everyone in one way or another.

 

King Arthur tanked

Snatched is nowhere near the top ten]

Alien might make it, but might not

Baywatch came in way under expectations

Captain Underpants has an outside chance...very outside...at this point it's not guaranteed to outgross Alien

Mummy is going to do around Alien numbers so again...not guaranteed but might squeak in

Rough Night just out and out tanked

All Eyez isn't going to make it.

 

So taking all of this into account, what the hell is the top 15 going to look like?  Or, will the bottom of the top 15 be filled with films that gross around 65 million?  Maybe we see breaks outs from Baby Driver, Girl's Trip, Atomic Blond and something like Detroit and Hitman's Bodyguard.  

 

It's been an extremely disappointing start to the summer so far for anything not done by MCU and DC.

 

 

And to think how well the year started off. Thought we were gonna have a bit more of an exciting summer.

 

I guess we kind of do, but exciting in the wrong direction 

Edited June 17, 2017 by aabattery

[baumer]

BOTM 2 is up

 

Hurry, not much time to get your answers in 

 

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/24216-botm-2-im-good-with-calculations/

[WrathOfHan]

Going to take a stab in the dark at scoring SOTM 1 (probably an error in here somewhere, so nitpick away!):

Spoiler

 

Part A:

1. King Arthur - $67M - LOWER

2. Lowriders - $15.3M - LOWER, HALF

3. Snatched - $85M - LOWER

4. Diary of a Wimpy Kid - $32M - LOWER

5. Everything Everything - $26M - HIGHER

6. It Comes at Night - $39M - LOWER, HALF

7. Captain Underpants - $93.5M - LOWER

8. All Eyes on Me - $49M - HIGHER

9. Rough Night - $80M - LOWER, HALF

10. Cars 3 - $180M - LOWER

 

1-5 are confirmed. ICAN has next to no chance at hitting 19.5M, so we can safely say it'll be half. Captain Underpants isn't having the legs for 93.5M. Even though All Eyez on Me will be frontloaded, it should pass 49M easily. Rough Night might need greater than a 4x to hit 40M, so it's almost definitely going to be Half. Cars 3 is the only real question mark right now: its preview to OD ratio was VERY frontloaded, so if it stalls around 55M, it'll likely be lower. Again, this is the only real question mark, and I wouldn't take these scores as final until we know where it'll end up.

 

Part B:

 

1. Which film not called Lowriders will be the lowest grossing? It Comes at Night (duh)

2. Which non-animated film will be the highest grossing? All Eyez on Me. As long as it beats Snatched's 45M or so (which it will), it'll be the answer.

3. Will a non-animated film on that list make the main games Domestic Top 15 list? No. See Baumer's reasoning above.

4. Will any film double its predicted gross? No.

5. Will any film fail to reach half of its predicted gross? Yes: Lowriders, ICAN, and Rough Night

 

6. Will the actual combined total gross for the 10 films be higher or lower than the predicted total gross? Lower. This is simple math here: of the films to be higher, EE is only higher by about 6-7M and All Eyez will be 20M higher max. Compare that to things like over a 40M loss on Rough Night.

7. Percentage wise, what will be boxoffice.com's best prediction? Cars 3. Because of its high prediction, the margin of error is much more generous. If it ends up between 160-200M, BOP will be at least 89% accurate. Compare that to something like All Eyez: if it grosses 55M, BOP will be 89% accurate, but if it hits 60M, that goes down to 81%. The answer is going to be Cars unless All Eyez completely collapses.

8. Percentage wise, what will be boxoffice.com's worst prediction? It Comes at Night. There's a chance Rough Night is the answer to this as well, but ICAN is collapsing hard and probably won't make more than 13-14M. Rough Night just needs to hit 27-28M for ICAN to be the answer. Again, proceed with caution here.

9. Will 3 or more of these films open in the number 2 position? No. Only Snatched and CU opened in second, and WW is pretty much locked to be second this weekend.

10. Will 2 or more of these films open in 5th or lower? Yes: Lowriders, ICAN, and Rough Night.

 

 

 

 

SCORES:

 

Exxdee: 108k (52k from Part A, 56k from Part B )

WrathOfHan: 100k (52k from Part A, 48k from Part B )

Spaghetti: 98k (56k from Part A, 42k from Part B )

Jake Gittes: 92k (50k from Part A, 42k from Part B )

Empire: 84k (52k from Part A, 32k from Part B )

Matrix4You: 84k (52k from Part A, 32k from Part B )

Simionski: 70k (40k from Part A, 30k from Part B )

Grey Ghost: 64k (34k from Part A, 30k from Part B )

MrPink: 64k (38k from Part A, 28k from Part B )

 

Telemachos: 49k (34k from Part A, 15k from Part B )

bcf26: 48k (24k from Part A, 24k from Part B )

franfar: 48k (24k from Part A, 24k from Part B )

jj99: 48k (30k from Part A, 18k from Part B )

Kalo: 48k (24k from Part A, 24k from Part B )

glassfairy: 41k (16k from Part A, 25k from Part B )

The Panda: 41k (16k from Part A, 25k from Part B )

 

24Lost: 36k (12k from Part A, 24k from Part B )

darkelf: 36k (20k from Part A, 16k from Part B )

ED: 36k (20k from Part A, 16k from Part B )

grim22: 36k (20k from Part A, 16k from Part B )

That One Guy: 36k (20k from Part A, 16k from Part B )

narniadis: 30k (10k from Part A, 20k from Part B )

 

kayumanggi: 25k (10k from Part A, 15k from Part B )

 

Jajang: 16k (-4k from Part A, 20k from Part B )

damnitgeorge08: 15k (10k from Part A, 5k from Part B ) (I'm assuming you kept "too low" and "too high" constant throughout)

Wrath: 14k (6k from Part A, 8k from Part B )

baumer: 11k (1k from Part A, 10k from Part B )

Water Bottle: 10k (-10k from Part A, 20k from Part B )

 

Chewy: 5k (1k from Part A, 4k from Part B )

aabattery: 3k (-6k from Part A, 9k from Part B )

 

DamienRoc: -2k (-8k from Part A, 6k from Part B )

Chasmmi: -9k (-18k from Part A, 9k from Part B )

Alfred: -23k (-25k from Part A, 2k from Part B )

Blankments: -23k (-29k from Part A, 6k from Part B )

MovieMan89: -36k (-37k from Part A, 1k from Part B )

Edited June 17, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[baumer]

Aaaaaannnnd I'm done.  SOTM just kicked the shit out of me.

[filmlover]

2 hours ago, aabattery said:

 

And to think how well the year started off. Thought we were gonna have a bit more of an exciting summer.

 

Blame studios for not giving audiences more exciting product.

[franfar]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Blame studios for not giving audiences more exciting product.

The movies listed just look so boring. 

[WrathOfHan]

5 minutes ago, baumer said:

Aaaaaannnnd I'm done.  SOTM just kicked the shit out of me.

There's definitely still a chance for some things to shift around, but this is definitely going to affect rankings when it's ready to be officially scored.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

There's definitely still a chance for some things to shift around, but this is definitely going to affect rankings when it's ready to be officially scored.

 

When some players are getting 100K and others are getting 10K, it will be a big swing for sure.

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, baumer said:

 

When some players are getting 100K and others are getting 10K, it will be a big swing for sure.

It's the boost I needed  

 

Now please don't tell me I'll make 20k less  

[Ezen Baklattan]

On 6/11/2017 at 10:50 AM, Spaghetti of 1000 Planets said:

My early elimination from the Survival challenge is gonna bite me in the ass later (fuck you Snatched), but if I can keep up my score on the weekly challenges, I can still save face.

And.....I forgot to play this week. 

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, Spaghetti of 1000 Planets said:

And.....I forgot to play this week. 

Your SOTM 1 score should compensate for that  

[grey ghost]

2 hours ago, baumer said:

At this point, the summer game has fucked almost everyone in one way or another.

 

King Arthur tanked

Snatched is nowhere near the top ten]

Alien might make it, but might not

Baywatch came in way under expectations

Captain Underpants has an outside chance...very outside...at this point it's not guaranteed to outgross Alien

Mummy is going to do around Alien numbers so again...not guaranteed but might squeak in

Rough Night just out and out tanked

All Eyez isn't going to make it.

 

So taking all of this into account, what the hell is the top 15 going to look like?  Or, will the bottom of the top 15 be filled with films that gross around 65 million?  Maybe we see breaks outs from Baby Driver, Girl's Trip, Atomic Blond and something like Detroit and Hitman's Bodyguard.  

 

It's been an extremely disappointing start to the summer so far for anything not done by MCU and DC.

 

 

I agree with most of this but still think All Eyez could make it if August disappoints.

[The Panda]

In all honesty, things like the Mummy, All Eyez and Baywatch aren't really out of the running yet.  If the smaller movies keep bombing, there's no reason to think we'll even have much more than 10 100m grossers from this Summer.