The Summer Game 2017 | Beans have been counted, sprouts measured, zombies destroyed, and Tele relegated to... oh wait better not... | Let the Pre-Season Reveals begin ...

[narniadis]

5 hours ago, The Mummified Panda said:

In all honesty, things like the Mummy, All Eyez and Baywatch aren't really out of the running yet.  If the smaller movies keep bombing, there's no reason to think we'll even have much more than 10 100m grossers from this Summer.

 

And thats just horrible.... I know we have had summers with only 11-12 but to have 10 or God Forbid less than 10 100m films is just astounding...

[The Panda]

42 minutes ago, narniadis said:

 

And thats just horrible.... I know we have had summers with only 11-12 but to have 10 or God Forbid less than 10 100m films is just astounding...

 

We only have 3 100m movies so far, and there's only 5-6 that I'd think are safe to clear that mark.

 

Now, I'm sure at least one or two movies that aren't safe would make it, but there's no guarantee in that.  Even then, it's hard to think of 6 other movies to round out the top 15 as all 100m grossers.

 

"Safe"

Cars 3

Transformers

Despicable Me 3

Spider-Man: Homecoming

War of the Planet of the Apes

Dunkirk

 

Potential 100m grossers?

All Eyez on Me? (not likely)

The House

Baby Driver

Girls Trip

Valerian

Atomic Blonde 

The Emoji Movie

The Dark Tower

Detroit

The Hitman's Bodyguard

 

Obviously out of those potential list, none of those are likely, and at best we'd see 2-3 hit that mark, leaving us with at least 3 movies that will be sub-100m (most likely) in the top 15.

Edited June 17, 2017 by The Mummified Panda

[BadAtGender]

Apparently I'm just bad at this game.

[dxmatrixdt]

Don't forget Megan Leavey as a potential 100M grosser.  (A) cinemascore.

[aabattery]

Just now, Matrix4You said:

Don't forget Megan Leavey as a potential 100M grosser.  (A) cinemascore.

 

Only ~95M to go!

[baumer]

Alien will develop late legs and get to 100 mill.  

[dxmatrixdt]

This weeks section of Summer Game notes written May 3rd.  I kid you not, I had a quick draft days before this with Rough Night at 10M max but i felt i was being too much against modest expectations and changed it up. 

 

[dxmatrixdt]

I will show next weeks since it does not matter anymore... This also brings up a good point.  Top 5 OW section in preseason.  Most people included Transformers.  Is there going to be some kind of SOTM override compensation for Paramount shifting the release date to a Wednesday?

 

Spoiler

 

[Plain Old Tele]

25 minutes ago, Matrix4You said:

This weeks section of Summer Game notes written May 3rd.  I kid you not, I had a quick draft days before this with Rough Night at 10M max but i felt i was being too much against modest expectations and changed it up. 

 

 

It's like some amazing artifact Nicolas Cage discovers and has to use to save the world. 

[BadAtGender]

I'm going to hazard a guess that a big reason I'm doing so poorly this year is my employment situation.

 

Last year at this time I was still unemployed, and would remain so for another month. This year I've basically spent the time since the game started working the busiest I've been on the job.

 

I forgot week 3 entirely, and I swear to god both this week and last week I was about to go to bed when I remembered "Oh, yeah... summer game" and put my answers together in about ten minutes.

 

I'm kinda envious of @Matrix4You's efforts up there. They're really fun to scan through, and while I've never expended anything even remotely close to that sort of effort, what I have been doing is a real far cry from anything like that.

[aabattery]

Wow, that's impressive @Matrix4You. I too have a comprehensive game-plan every week.

 

[dxmatrixdt]

Ehh.....it was for preseason.  it took a bunch of frozen bottles of dr pepper and loosing ones mind 5 hours in.  Unfortunately, I had no time left to work on the preseason questions before the deadline and had to get it in exactly at midnight.  I completely bombed overseas predicting.  The format in the notes is not too challenging.  It is all about managing the theater location counts.  That creates some stability with how things should end up.  Then you just look for comparisons on how the per theater average should drop week to week as the movie looses locations.  Further comparisons would be like: Wonder Woman weekend 2 was a $14,051 avg and the 7-day total was $20,649.  The ratio is 1.47.  That means if you multiply that weekend by 0.47, you would get the gross for M,T,W,Th.  Being conservative you could multiply weekend #3 by 0.45 to get a rough outlook at the upcoming Mon-Th.   If you look at movies in years past on the same weekends, you could get their ratios too so you have a better look on the total weekly gross for different films instead of very rough estimates.  This trick i discovered was when i was working on the preseasons this year.  It was very handy for the 4th of July weekend.  The 4th is on a Tuesday this year.  DISCOUNT TUESDAY.  So the 5th is the day after which is a decent day at the box office.  and Monday, well yeah.  5-day weekend. Anyways, good comparisons would be of course when 4th is on a Monday, Tuesday or a Wednesday.  THat leaves room for the 5th to be during the weekdays too.Then you could find decent ratios for the full week.  However, when looking back for comparisons, try to avoid the years when movies opened midweek during the fourth of july weekend since that is not happening this year.  Spiderman is the 7th, DM3 is June 30th.

For the derby, it is not such a pain.  I try to work on a composition notebook in commute on the bus.  Using my phone for BOM data, I can stay active with that.  I try to avoid the number projections and guesses during the day other than long bus commutes or breaks of some sort.

Edited June 18, 2017 by Matrix4You

[baumer]

Even though Tele already beat me to the joke I will tell it anyway again...

 

Those sheets look like you had to go see an old flame in Nepal as she was drinking a big fat guy under the table. You then had to get a gold medallion with a crystal in the center go to the middle of the desert and find the staff of raw and then dig without the Nazis finding out that you're there. You then had to take those sheets of paper go onto a submarine with a questionable captain who then claims that he killed you again for the Nazis would not find you. Finally someone actually stole those sheets from you but you got them back when fire or Brimstone or the power of God or something came out of a bunch of crates and killed all the Nazis and allowed you to keep the sheets. That's why you do so well in the summer game. Because you are willing to go on adventures far and wide to obtain information like this that the rest of us cannot or are not willing to do.

[The Panda]

Yeah I've been pretty busy, so for a lot of weeklies I put together my answers in about 5-10 minutes.  I'm amazed I'm not doing worse.

[That One Girl]

7 hours ago, Matrix4You said:

This weeks section of Summer Game notes written May 3rd.  I kid you not, I had a quick draft days before this with Rough Night at 10M max but i felt i was being too much against modest expectations and changed it up. 

 

 

This, my friends, is fucking dedication to box office  

[WrathOfHan]

Because I need to kill time while I wait for my mom to come home with lunch, this is where SOTM 4 is at right now based on estimates:

 

1. What will Guardians' total be at the end of the game? It's on track for 385M at the very least.

2. What will Baywatch's total be by the end of the game? It'll finish around 58M or so.

3. What will 47 Meters Down's 3 day OW be? 11.5M

4. What will Wonder Woman's Second weekend percentage drop be? 43.3%

5. What will be the difference in gross between Alien Covenant and Power Rangers by the end of the game (No need to state which is higher)? It's looking like 9-10M

 

9. What will Pirates 4th weekend gross be? 8.45M

10. How close will Spiderman, Wonder Woman, Apes and The Mummy's combined midnight preview totals come to $100M? So far we're at 13.66M

[Wrath]

On 6/18/2017 at 3:58 AM, Telemachos said:

 

It's like some amazing artifact Nicolas Cage discovers and has to use to save the world. 

Or destroy it...

[chasmmi]

Weekly Questions up

 

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/24220-summer-game-week-8-transformers-the-last-jedi-deadline-thursday-22nd-1159pm/

[grey ghost]

On 6/17/2017 at 9:16 AM, baumer said:

At this point, the summer game has fucked almost everyone in one way or another.

 

King Arthur tanked

Snatched is nowhere near the top ten]

Alien might make it, but might not

Baywatch came in way under expectations

Captain Underpants has an outside chance...very outside...at this point it's not guaranteed to outgross Alien

Mummy is going to do around Alien numbers so again...not guaranteed but might squeak in

Rough Night just out and out tanked

All Eyez isn't going to make it.

 

So taking all of this into account, what the hell is the top 15 going to look like?  Or, will the bottom of the top 15 be filled with films that gross around 65 million?  Maybe we see breaks outs from Baby Driver, Girl's Trip, Atomic Blond and something like Detroit and Hitman's Bodyguard.  

 

It's been an extremely disappointing start to the summer so far for anything not done by MCU and DC.

 

 

How things look from my angle.

 

1...GotG 385
2...WW 385
3...Despicable Me 300
4...Spiderman 300
5...Apes 200
6...Transformers 180. 
7...Cars 3 175
8...Potc 160
9...Dunkirk 150
10...Mummy 85
11.. Alien 75

12...Cap Underpants 70

 

13...open spot

14....open spot

15...open spot

 

Movies compteting for the three spots:

 

All Eyez On Me

Baby Driver

The House

Girls Trip

Valerian

Emoji the Movie

Atomic Blonde
Detroit 

The Dark Tower

Annebelle Creation

 

Basically it comes down to which of these movies will cross 70 m.

 

Edited June 19, 2017 by grey ghost

[WrathOfHan]

4 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

How things look from my angle.

 

1...GotG 385
2...WW 385
3...Despicable Me 300
4...Spiderman 300
5...Apes 200
6...Transformers 180. 
7...Cars 3 175
8...Potc 160
9...Dunkirk 150
10...Alien 90
11...Mummy 90

12...Cap Underpants 70

 

13...open spot

14....open spot

15...open spot

 

Movies compteting for the three spots:

 

All Eyez On Me

Baby Driver

The House

Girls Trip

Valerian

Emoji the Movie

Atomic Blonde
Detroit 

The Dark Tower

Annebelle Creation

 

Basically it comes down to which of these movies will cross 70 m.

 

Alien will finish around 75M