What will be the indie breakout(s) of the summer?

[filmlover]

Every summer there's always at least one, so which of this summer's high-profile indies will make the most?

 

The contenders:

 

Beatriz at Dinner (June 9)

My Cousin Rachel (June 9)

The Book of Henry (June 16)

The Beguiled (June 23)

The Big Sick (June 23)

A Ghost Story (July 7)

Ingrid Goes West (August 11)

 

Was tempted to add Wind River (August 4) but it's Weinstein so who knows if it'll even be released at all, let alone on that date.

 

My money is on The Beguiled, which I think could go as high as $40-50M if the reviews are great (we'll find out soon as it's screening at Cannes). The Big Sick was a major favorite from Sundance this year and should find plenty of staying power through reviews and word-of-mouth.

[AniNate]

I think The Big Sick has potential. With Apatow backing and very topical premise it could get serious backing from the left-leaning crowd

 

 

Edited May 15, 2017 by tribefan695

[aabattery]

The Big Sick seems like the most likely to me. Doesn't seem like tooooo hard a sell.

[DAJK]

I've heard a few people at school mention book of Henry to be honest...

[filmlover]

I don't see The Book of Henry making much of a dent at all tbh. The trailer has no freakin' idea who it's selling the movie to, and I get the sense the reviews will be similarly mediocre as well.

Edited May 15, 2017 by filmlover

[franfar]

The only ones I've heard of are Book of Henry and The Big Sick. The latter looks kinda funny but limited. I could see the former breaking out, or at least making more than the rest. 

Edited May 15, 2017 by franfar

[babz06]

These indies breakouts typically make around the 20-30m range if they're really lucky. I don't see any on that list you made doing those numbers. It Comes At Night (a24) is technically an indie horror film coming from a specialty distributor. I think that does the best this summer. Currently predicting 25m.

Sofia Coppola films haven't done that great at the box office. Her most recent one, The Bling Ring, only did 5.8m. Seems like her audience is very niche, and The Beguiled is unlikely to reach a broader audience. I doubt many people even know it's a remake of an Eastwood film. I see it doing around 10m. 

 

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, babz06 said:

Sofia Coppola films haven't done that great at the box office. Her most recent one, The Bling Ring, only did 5.8m. Seems like her audience is very niche, and The Beguiled is unlikely to reach a broader audience. I doubt many people even know it's a remake of an Eastwood film. I see it doing around 10m. 

 

The Beguiled should easily have the most commercial appeal of any of her films since Lost in Translation though (certainly doesn't hurt that its actresses, especially Kidman, are on fire at the moment). The reviews are gonna make or break it though.

[MCKillswitch123]

Can't believe we're not talking about It Comes At Night more. That could very well be the next The Witch.

[WrathOfHan]

The Big Sick will easily be a 50-60M+ grosser IMO. I think The Beguiled and It Comes at Night will do around 30-40M if they're handled well.

[PDC1987]

It Comes At Night. Evidently the trailer is getting good reactions in theaters.

[a2k]

12 hours ago, filmlover said:

Beatriz at Dinner (June 9)

My Cousin Rachel (June 9)

The Book of Henry (June 16)

The Beguiled (June 23)

The Big Sick (June 23)

A Ghost Story (July 7)

Ingrid Goes West (August 11)

 

Either Henry or Big Sick.

Big Sick seems more likely but I feel Henry will surprise.

[Eric Duncan]

31 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Can't believe we're not talking about It Comes At Night more. That could very well be the next The Witch.

I believe the movie is going into wide release and filmlover's only talking about limited release movies.

 

As for the question, The Big Sick seems the most likely. Typically indie drama-comedies do well in the summer, so Chef or (500) Days of Summer numbers wouldn't surprise me.

[MCKillswitch123]

1 minute ago, CoolEric258 said:

I believe the movie is going into wide release and filmlover's only talking about limited release movies.

 

As for the question, The Big Sick seems the most likely. Typically indie drama-comedies do well in the summer, so Chef or (500) Days of Summer numbers wouldn't surprise me.

 

Yeah, but it doesn't make it less of an indie, technically.

[babz06]

4 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

I believe the movie is going into wide release and filmlover's only talking about limited release movies.

 

As for the question, The Big Sick seems the most likely. Typically indie drama-comedies do well in the summer, so Chef or (500) Days of Summer numbers wouldn't surprise me.

Some of these films will be going into wider release as well depending on how they do in limited. You don't get to 30-40m dollar grosses with only limited release. 

Edited May 15, 2017 by babz06

[filmlover]

21 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

I believe the movie is going into wide release and filmlover's only talking about limited release movies.

 

As for the question, The Big Sick seems the most likely. Typically indie drama-comedies do well in the summer, so Chef or (500) Days of Summer numbers wouldn't surprise me.

 

19 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

Yeah, but it doesn't make it less of an indie, technically.

It Comes at Night will be opening in at least 2,000 theaters in all likelihood so it's not an indie in the same way as the films I mentioned in the first post.

Edited May 15, 2017 by filmlover

[babz06]

20 minutes ago, filmlover said:

 

It Comes at Night will be opening in at least 2,000 theaters in all likelihood so it's not an indie in the same way as the films I mentioned in the first post.

It is an indie in the definition of the word (independently made usually low budget film). 

 

Running list of the top 20 indies currently:

http://www.indiewire.com/2017/05/highest-grossing-indie-films-2017-1201764229/

 

Gifted is the top grossing indie of the year so far(21.4m), opened in limited release before expanding to 1,000+ theaters.

Before I Fall went wide (2,000+) immediately eventually grossing 12.2m

 

Different release strategies are used for these indies depending on how commercially viable the distributors think they are. 

 

 

[tonytr87]

I don't know about box office but I'm hoping A Ghost Story takes off. Film looks amazing. 

[Plain Old Tele]

My guess is THE BIG SICK -- it seems like the sort of story that can appeal to a lot of people, regardless of their background. Maybe BEGUILED if it gets rave reviews, or A GHOST STORY.

[Jake Gittes]

I don't see A Ghost Story going above 10m. Big Sick might do 25-35 I guess. Don't think anything will be a 40m+ breakout.