The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Barnack]

2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

lmfao if Tomb Raider manages to go under 15M 

With 3,854 theater and nothing else opening over 2,400 this weekend... would need to be really front loaded no ? It has a lot of place until RPO.

 

Except kids animation nothing with that many theater, well nothing with 3,300 or more theater opened below 15m last year, Geostorm is the movie with the most theater to do it, with a 13.7m opening and 3,246 theater.

 

If Tomb raider do the same per theater average than those it will open at:

 

King Arthur: 16.08m

Geostorm: 16.26m

Resident Evil Final Chapter: 16.97m

Underworld: 17.28m

American Assassin: 18.14m

Ghost in a shell: 20.92m

Atomic Blonde: 21.33m

Red Sparrow: 21.36m

Jigsaw: 21.92m 

 

Below 15m would require a significantly lower than last year Resident Evil/Underworld per theater average and that do sound very unlikely, it is still a giant franchise, WB close to 4,000 theater release with nothing really saturated opening against it and last week Wrinkle of time being different enough in term of competition.

 

20M OW is still fully in play, there is just volume here, would not fall off a chair if it do 14.8m but would be really surprised if this go under Resident Evil Final Chapter per theater average, American Assassin look like it's floor, performing exactly like Ghost-Atomic Blonde-Red Sparrow per theater for an around 21m OW is a good prediction and just need a 10% over them PTA wise to make that over 23m upper side of the studio prediction.

 

Could be franchise frontloaded to make it possible but I do not think it will play like a franchise/sequel that much, there is not the excitement for that and should have a more normal Thursday previews / OW multiplier.

Edited March 15, 2018 by Barnack

[Hiccup23]

@a2knet

 

Here is the number for you!

 

RS sold 123 tickets total for its previews at my theater.

 

TR so far has sold 124 tickets and has 3 hours still to go before the first showing. I should manage to get slightly above Atomic Blonde's 145 total tickets sold #. 

[a2k]

16 minutes ago, CaptainJackSparrow said:

At least Mummy made 300 mil OS which this won’t. 

Mummy had gone over-budget big time...

Quote

The movie is projected to lose $95 million, according to Deadline, when factoring in the movie's bloated production and marketing costs, which total around $345 million ($195 million production budget, $150 million for distribution and advertising). 

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-mummy-will-lose-money-box-office-2017-6

 

Barely did 2.1x the prod budget ww.

 

Not aware of any bloat on TR's reported 94m. It has a very good shot at doing 2.5x that globally.

Edited March 15, 2018 by a2knet

[a2k]

4 minutes ago, Hiccup23 said:

@a2knet

 

Here is the number for you!

 

RS sold 123 tickets total for its previews at my theater.

 

TR so far has sold 124 tickets and has 3 hours still to go before the first showing. I should manage to get slightly above Atomic Blonde's 145 total tickets sold #. 

Thanks! hopefully that's the story everywhere. Considering Blonde was in summer I think TR matching/beating it is very good.

[WrathOfHan]

Well, uh, forget what I said about Tomb Raider being presale based, because it's jumped ahead of Red Sparrow's final sales with an hour to go at my theater  

[Eric the Minion]

> NEW RELEASES
2	-	Tomb Raider	Warner Bros.	3,854	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
9	-	Love, Simon	Fox	2,402	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
12	-	I Can Only Imagine	Roadside Attractions	1,620	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
16	-	7 Days in Entebbe	Focus Features	834	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
43	-	Furlough	IFC	2	-	-	-	-	-	-	1
> EXPANDING
19	18	Thoroughbreds	Focus Features	565	+16	+2.9%	-	-	-	-	2
22	32	A Fantastic Woman	Sony Classics	190	+24	+14.5%	-	-	-	-	7
26	35	12 Strong	Warner Bros.	148	+37	+33.3%	-	-	-	-	9
31	39	Hostiles	Entertainment Studios	102	+12	+13.3%	-	-	-	-	13
37	52	The Leisure Seeker	Sony Classics	49	+21	+75.0%	-	-	-	-	2
40	70	The Death of Stalin	IFC	32	+28	+700.0%	-	-	-	-	2
41	65	Foxtrot	Sony Classics	12	+6	+100.0%	-	-	-	-	3
> NO CHANGE
1	1	A Wrinkle in Time	Buena Vista	3,980	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
8	7	Strangers: Prey at Night	Aviron	2,464	-	-	-	-	-	-	2
> DECLINING
3	2	Black Panther	Buena Vista	3,834	-108	-2.7%	-	-	-	-	5
4	3	Peter Rabbit	Sony / Columbia	2,725	-387	-12.4%	-	-	-	-	6
5	5	Game Night	Warner Bros. (New Line)	2,686	-375	-12.3%	-	-	-	-	4
6	6	Death Wish (2018)	MGM	2,676	-206	-7.1%	-	-	-	-	3
7	4	Red Sparrow	Fox	2,583	-481	-15.7%	-	-	-	-	3
10	8	Gringo	STX Entertainment	2,314	-90	-3.7%	-	-	-	-	2
11	9	The Hurricane Heist	Entertainment Studios	2,283	-119	-5.0%	-	-	-	-	2
13	10	Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle	Sony / Columbia	1,556	-601	-27.9%	-	-	-	-	13
14	11	Annihilation	Paramount	1,087	-622	-36.4%	-	-	-	-	4
15	13	Fifty Shades Freed	Universal	873	-484	-35.7%	-	-	-	-	6
17	12	The Shape of Water	Fox Searchlight	758	-794	-51.2%	-	-	-	-	16
18	14	The Greatest Showman	Fox	737	-215	-22.6%	-	-	-	-	13
20	17	Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri	Fox Searchlight	282	-270	-48.9%	-	-	-	-	19
21	24	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	Buena Vista	211	-35	-14.2%	-	-	-	-	14
23	29	Coco	Buena Vista	177	-17	-8.8%	-	-	-	-	17
24	22	The Post	Fox	159	-119	-42.8%	-	-	-	-	13
25	19	The 15:17 to Paris	Warner Bros.	155	-265	-63.1%	-	-	-	-	6
27	30	Early Man	Lionsgate	144	-42	-22.6%	-	-	-	-	5
28	25	Darkest Hour	Focus Features	133	-112	-45.7%	-	-	-	-	17
29	20	Call Me by Your Name	Sony Classics	118	-191	-61.8%	-	-	-	-	17
30	16	Every Day (2018)	Orion Pictures	110	-505	-82.1%	-	-	-	-	4
32	34	Wonder	Lionsgate	96	-42	-30.4%	-	-	-	-	18
33	31	Phantom Thread	Focus Features	92	-92	-50.0%	-	-	-	-	12
34	23	Winchester	Lionsgate	91	-170	-65.1%	-	-	-	-	7
35	33	Lady Bird	A24	88	-68	-43.6%	-	-	-	-	20
36	36	Den of Thieves	STX Entertainment	60	-44	-42.3%	-	-	-	-	9
38	49	Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool	Sony Classics	38	-3	-7.3%	-	-	-	-	12
39	37	Samson	Pure Flix	34	-59	-63.4%	-	-	-	-	5
42	54	Detective Chinatown 2	Warner Bros.	8	-12	-60.0%	-	-	-	-	5

[Hiccup23]

Love Simon- 14.6 tickets sold per minute

 

Tomb Raider- 24.4 tickets sold per minute

 

I Can Only Imagine- 14.8 tickets sold per minute

[WrathOfHan]

wtf how is Death Wish keeping more screens than Red Sparrow  

[DAJK]

The theatres I check regularly in Ontario are both sold out for Love Simon for the 7;00, granted they are in pretty small auditoriums. Tomb Raider has sold more tickets overall, but it's in massive auditoriums and is only 1/3 full apiece

[ZeeSoh]

Thats a great theatre hold for Black Panther

[Barnack]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

wtf how is Death Wish keeping more screens than Red Sparrow 

Death Wish had a significantly lower PTA, I would imagine Tomb Raider opening being a more direct competition ? MGM is maybe asking for less than a studio also.

[TwoMisfits]

9 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

Tonight's previews (1st local with all 3)...

TR 25/250

Love Simon 9/120 (this worries me, b/c I am in the "zone" for this movie)

ICOI 6/120 (added only Tuesday night - others have sold for over a week - I am not in the "zone" for this movie)

 

2nd local with 2

TR 36/350

Love Simon 12/100

 

I think Love Simon is gonna struggle to get the 25+ demo from these Thursday preview numbers, but should really hit the 13-25 demo hard...not sure how much that delivers, but I guess we'll see:)...well, either that, or the 25+ will watch it after their March Madness team loses tonight or tomorrow:)...

Final update...

1st local

TR 46/125, 6/125 for 52/250 - okay walk ups here

Love Simon 18/60, 2/60 for 20/120 - not great walk ups here

ICOI 13/60, 3/60 for 16/120 - it sold something more:)...no groups here, and not the prime market area

 

2nd local

TR 101/175, 5/175  for 106/350 so far - nice walk up here

Love Simon 33/50, 6/50 for 39/100 so far - decent walk up here

[WrathOfHan]

Final sales for the 7:00 shows tonight:

 

Imagine: 65/78

Tomb Raider: 49/69

Love, Simon: 13/78

 

The 7:45 ICOI is at 19/67 currently. I have absolutely no comps for ICOI, so even with the 7:45 show, you ain't getting far  

 

Tomb Raider comps:

 

60% of Blade Runner (19.7M)

60% of Kingsman (23.4M)

140% of Red Sparrow (23.7M)

175% of Annihilation (19.4M)

190% of The Commuter (26M)

615% of Hurricane Heist (18.5M)

 

So yeah, this is VERY good. 3D will get this over 20M IMO

 

Love, Simon: 

 

30% of Maze Runner (7.2M)

30% of Wrinkle in Time (9.9M)

33% of Wonder (9.1M)

40% of Happy Death Day (10.4M)

40% of Insidious (11.8M)

 

OTOH, these are some fucking weak previews that are more in line with tracking. Proceed with caution.

[Eric the Minion]

13 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

wtf how is Death Wish keeping more screens than Red Sparrow  

107 minutes vs. 140 minutes

[Kalderic]

So I come from a very religious area of the Midwest... and the entire weekend of ICOI is basically sold out barring handicap seats and a few singles here and there. This is at the only theater that does reserved seating so I’m not sure how the other theaters are doing, but it’s performing very well here...

 

simon on the other hand, not so well.

[CJohn]

16 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Final sales for the 7:00 shows tonight:

 

Imagine: 65/78

Tomb Raider: 49/69

Love, Simon: 13/78

 

The 7:45 ICOI is at 19/67 currently. I have absolutely no comps for ICOI, so even with the 7:45 show, you ain't getting far  

 

Tomb Raider comps:

 

60% of Blade Runner (19.7M)

60% of Kingsman (23.4M)

140% of Red Sparrow (23.7M)

175% of Annihilation (19.4M)

190% of The Commuter (26M)

615% of Hurricane Heist (18.5M)

 

So yeah, this is VERY good. 3D will get this over 20M IMO

 

Love, Simon: 

 

30% of Maze Runner (7.2M)

30% of Wrinkle in Time (9.9M)

33% of Wonder (9.1M)

40% of Happy Death Day (10.4M)

40% of Insidious (11.8M)

 

OTOH, these are some fucking weak previews that are more in line with tracking. Proceed with caution.

Mega crap weekend coming.

[WrathOfHan]

25 minutes ago, Kalderic said:

So I come from a very religious area of the Midwest... and the entire weekend of ICOI is basically sold out barring handicap seats and a few singles here and there. This is at the only theater that does reserved seating so I’m not sure how the other theaters are doing, but it’s performing very well here...

 

simon on the other hand, not so well.

This is why my theater is giving ICOI an extra screen this weekend. However, the additional screen really hasn't gained that many sales so far.

[WrathOfHan]

7:45 ICOI is finishing with 24/67 for a total tonight of 89/145

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, Kalderic said:

So I come from a very religious area of the Midwest... and the entire weekend of ICOI is basically sold out barring handicap seats and a few singles here and there. This is at the only theater that does reserved seating so I’m not sure how the other theaters are doing, but it’s performing very well here...

 

simon on the other hand, not so well.

Has this theater started scratching other showings of movies tomorrow to add more of ICOI?  Or are they just gonna stick with the schedule as is?

 

When BP opened, many East Coast theaters were scratching other movies' shows left and right to fit in more BP showings (even at reserved theaters)...I'm wondering if this might have a similar "small scale" effect in the red country that might mean we could be underestimating how much it can realistically do in 1600 theaters:)...

Edited March 16, 2018 by TwoMisfits

[WrathOfHan]

How tomorrow looks at my theater:

 

Spoiler

I Can Only Imagine:

 

11:00: 87/124

12:15: 11/78

1:45: 67/124

3:00: 0/78

4:30: 70/124

5:45: 9/78

7:15: 111/124

8:30: 2/78

10:00: 15/124

 

Tomb Raider:

 

10:00: 15/113

12:45 3D: 2/113

3:30: 2/113

6:15 3D: 0/113

9:00 3D: 5/113

 

Love, Simon:

 

11:15: 9/78

1:55: 6/78

4:40: 0/78

7:20: 2/78

10:05: 6/78

 

Peter Rabbit:

 

10:05: 13/69

12:30: 6/69

2:50: 4/69

5:15: 0/69

 

Black Panther:

 

11:00: 4/78

2:15 3D: 1/78

5:30: 7/78

7:00: 0/78

8:45 3D: 6/78

10:15: 0/78

 

A Wrinkle in Time:

 

10:45: 9/78

12:15: 0/78

1:30: 0/78

3:00 3D: 0/78

4:15: 0/78

5:45: 0/78

7:00: 5/78

8:30 3D: 0/78

9:45: 0/78

 

Red Sparrow:

 

10:10: 0/60

1:40: 4/63

4:00: 0/60

7:25: 0/63

9:45: 0/60

Game Night:

 

11:40: 2/78

2:10: 0/78

4:35: 0/78

 

Strangers:

 

7:05: 2/67

9:20: 0/67

 

I Can Only Imagine: 372/932

Tomb Raider: 24/565

Love, Simon: 23/390

Peter Rabbit: 23/276

Black Panther: 18/468

A Wrinkle in Time: 14/702

Game Night: 2/234

Strangers: 2/134

Death Wish, Hurricane Heist, Gringo, and Jumanji have sold nothing.

 

ICOI has definitely sold more seats in the original set of shows thanks to being moved into the biggest auditorium, but the second screen has only sold 22 extra seats.

 

Tomb Raider comps:

 

45% of Kingsman (17.8M)

45% of Red Sparrow (7.6M)

65% of Blade Runner (21.3M)

70% of The Commuter (9.6M)

 

The Kingsman and Blade Runner comps are consistent with what previews had, but it's lagging far behind Red Sparrow.

 

Love, Simon:

 

20% of Wrinkle in Time (6.6M)

25% of Wonder (6.9M)

60% of Maze Runner (14.5M)

67% of Happy Death Day (17.4M)

80% of Insidious (23.7M)

130% of Game Night (22.1M)

 

Meanwhile, this has done a complete 180 from previews  WTF do I put in my Derby???