The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Lordmandeep]

Solo Presales compared to last SW films at local 20 theatres

 

[WrathOfHan]

Hotel Artemis’ marketing is starting to pick up big time, especially online. Every ad break on the episode of Atlanta I just watched online was for the film  Global Road has also been spending more on it than Paramount has for Action Point  

[Eric Prime]

24 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Hotel Artemis’ marketing is starting to pick up big time, especially online. Every ad break on the episode of Atlanta I just watched online was for the film  Global Road has also been spending more on it than Paramount has for Action Point  

Speaking of Action Point, I was checking that film's showtimes on Fandango a couple of days ago, and of all the theaters that have times up, none of them have Thursday previews. For a film like this, notgreatbob.gif

[WrathOfHan]

12 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Speaking of Action Point, I was checking that film's showtimes on Fandango a couple of days ago, and of all the theaters that have times up, none of them have Thursday previews. For a film like this, notgreatbob.gif

Oh my fucking god  It's definitely going under Popstar if the social media buzz has remained the same (which it more than likely has)

 

My summer game is fucked tho  

Edited May 23, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[filmlover]

I'm pretty sure I saw a tweet saying Action Point isn't being screened at all either before release. The studio clearly knows they have a turd on their hands.

[WrathOfHan]

Well, at least I have Upgrade to see on my birthday, I guess.

[MCKillswitch123]

23 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I'm pretty sure I saw a tweet saying Action Point isn't being screened at all either before release. The studio clearly knows they have a turd on their hands.

Eish. Bummer. I actually liked the one trailer a lot, and I'm not even a huge Jackass fan.

[MovieMan89]

Solo is still lightyears from #1 on MT a day before release. People can hide behind DP2 making 10m like that's some huge deal all they want, that's fucking horrendous. This is Star Wars for crying out loud! As I said in the Solo thread, if it's at all possible for an SW film to open sub 100 yet, Solo is doing it. 

Edited May 23, 2018 by MovieMan89

[Nova]

14 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Solo is still lightyears from #1 on MT a day before release. People can hide behind DP2 making 10m like that's some huge deal all they want, that's fucking horrendous. This is Star Wars for crying out loud! As I said in the Solo thread, if it's at all possible for an SW film to open sub 100 yet, Solo is doing it. 

I just checked how it's doing at my theater throughout the weekend and I'm lowering my 3-day to $110-115M. It is MDW and this is the first weekend where my area goes down the shore for the year BUT MDW is still busy at my theater. There are several showtimes for Solo that haven't sold any tickets. I don't have any concrete evidence for this but I can't remember a potential $100M+ opener doing this poorly at my theater. Not even for a CBM or Star Wars movie. Even Finding Dory and SLOP I remember doing better. 

 

I said this in the Star Wars thread but if this hits tracking, it's gonna be because of some strong ass walk ups or people who are waiting on WOM to hit see its good and buy their tickets after it comes out. 

 

Edited May 23, 2018 by Nova

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, Nova said:

I just checked how it's doing at my theater throughout the weekend and I'm lowering my 3-day to $110-115M. It is MDW and this is the first weekend where my area goes down the shore for the year BUT MDW is still busy at my theater. There are several showtimes for Solo that haven't sold any tickets. I don't have any concrete evidence for this but I can't remember a potential $100M+ opener doing this poorly at my theater. Not even for a CBM or Star Wars movie. Even Finding Dory and SLOP I remember doing better. 

 

I said this in the Star Wars thread but if this hits tracking, it's gonna be because of some strong ass walk ups or people who are waiting on WOM to hit see its good and buy their tickets after it comes out. 

 

The sellout reports in here are abysmal. Like legitimately sub 75m bad under the context of a huge franchise that is unlikely to be driven be walk ups.  I don't know how low it's possible for an SW film to go yet, but I think this weekend is going to show us. If this somehow pulls off the 130-150 tracking ranges for it, then it is officially the weirdest pre-release performing franchise film I've ever tracked. 

Edited May 23, 2018 by MovieMan89

[Nova]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

The sellout reports in here are abysmal. Like legitimately sub 75m bad under the context of a huge franchise that is unlikely to be driven be walk ups.  I don't know how low it's possible for an SW film to go yet, but I think this weekend is going to show us. If this somehow pulls off the 130-150 tracking ranges for it, then it is officially the weirdest pre-release performing franchise film I've ever tracked. 

I agree. For context DP2 was front loaded as hell as we saw but it still wasn't as front loaded as a Star Wars film. At the same point in time DP2 was selling pretty well into the weekend at my theater. Solo has weaker Thursday night sales here and isn't selling like how DP2 was selling. It's not even selling like Finding Dory or SLOP if we are expecting it to be like a family film. 

 

So yea who knows what happens this weekend but if presales are any indication this isn't doing what I originally thought it would do. 

[Eric Prime]

This will not age well.

 

On 5/21/2018 at 11:11 PM, EmpireCity said:

I think gut feeling that Solo is going to be fine.  

 

There have been times that I see a board 99% convinced something is going to be an epic bomb it surprises.  

 

Sales are pretty good and Memorial Day is more of a family walk up type of weekend.  

 

Like nearly every movie, rooting for this to succeed.  

 

[Brainbug]

The main problem for Solo is that nobody asked for it. Nearly everyone wanted to see Episode VII, since that is the sequel to ROTJ. Nearly everyone wanted to see Rogue One, since that was the first SW-spinoff (curiosity!) and featured characters weve never seen before plus the most iconic character in movie history (im talking about the Gonk Droid ofc). Nearly everyone wanted to see The Last Jedi, since that was the sequel to TFA.

 

And Solo? What is its hook? The Kessel run? That is something only the nerdiest of nerds have any interest in. Seeing a young Lando, Han or Chewy? But why? What is the great story behind it, why was this movie made, beyond the fact that it exists to make money? There is...nothing. Solo looked and looks (for me) incredibly bland. Which is a death penalty to a tentpole movie.

 

Im a big SW Fan. I loved TFA, R1 and TLJ and i still have 0 interest in seeing Solo. Because from Day 1 when it was announcend, i felt like it was just totally unneccessary. And if our presales and anecdotical data is correct, there seem to be many SW fans and casuals who feel the same. And regardless of the numbers that Solo will produce, nearly everyone will be back to Episode IX, that im sure of

[Nova]

I don't expect Solo to be an epic bomb. If a film opens to over $100M I can't see how it's a bomb. It could be an underperformance but a bomb it is not. 

 

Over a month ago I had Solo at $135-140M for the 3-day and I've been lowering my prediction because it doesn't seem like it's hitting that (to me) anymore. But if it opens to $115M for the 3-day I don't see how that could be a bomb? It's still gonna make over $300M and whatever it does OS....that's if it even goes that low. Who knows. But a bomb it won't be. 

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, Nova said:

I don't expect Solo to be an epic bomb. If a film opens to over $100M I can't see how it's a bomb. It could be an underperformance but a bomb it is not. 

 

Over a month ago I had Solo at $135-140M for the 3-day and I've been lowering my prediction because it doesn't seem like it's hitting that (to me) anymore. But if it opens to $115M for the 3-day I don't see how that could be a bomb? It's still gonna make over $300M and whatever it does OS....that's if it even goes that low. Who knows. But a bomb it won't be. 

 

Bomb and Flop are two words that get used way too much on this board. Like, Mars needs Moms is a true bomb, but lets say that Solo gets to 600M Worldwide - a very low total for a SW film for sure, but not a bomb or a flop. In that case, it would have still made goog money for the Mouse, especially when one includes the merchandise.

[MovieMan89]

6 minutes ago, Nova said:

I don't expect Solo to be an epic bomb. If a film opens to over $100M I can't see how it's a bomb. It could be an underperformance but a bomb it is not. 

 

Over a month ago I had Solo at $135-140M for the 3-day and I've been lowering my prediction because it doesn't seem like it's hitting that (to me) anymore. But if it opens to $115M for the 3-day I don't see how that could be a bomb? It's still gonna make over $300M and whatever it does OS....that's if it even goes that low. Who knows. But a bomb it won't be. 

I see no way it will be profitable if it opens to 115m for the 3 day. It's opening on a weekend where it's very hard to get over a 2.5x multi or so, and critical reception doesn't exactly paint this as a WOM driven film. So 115 probably gives it like 290 at most, and even if we say OS share is oddly a bit higher than DOM for once, it still barely goes over 600 WW. I don't buy that's enough for profit with that budget. JL made more than that with a budget less than these reports we're getting for Solo's, and we know WB took a loss. 

Edited May 23, 2018 by MovieMan89

[FantasticBeasts]

5 minutes ago, Nova said:

I don't expect Solo to be an epic bomb. If a film opens to over $100M I can't see how it's a bomb. It could be an underperformance but a bomb it is not. 

 

Over a month ago I had Solo at $135-140M for the 3-day and I've been lowering my prediction because it doesn't seem like it's hitting that (to me) anymore. But if it opens to $115M for the 3-day I don't see how that could be a bomb? It's still gonna make over $300M and whatever it does OS....that's if it even goes that low. Who knows. But a bomb it won't be. 

Considering how much mocking Justice League received, If Solo ends up doing less than $700m I think it should be rightfully considered a bomb by BOT's standards.

[Nova]

1 minute ago, Brainbug said:

 

Bomb and Flop are two words that get used way too much on this board. Like, Mars needs Moms is a true bomb, but lets say that Solo gets to 600M Worldwide - a very low total for a SW film for sure, but not a bomb or a flop. In that case, it would have still made goog money for the Mouse, especially when one includes the merchandise.

Green Lantern is a bomb.

Ghostbusters 2016 is a flop. 

Solo doing $600M WW would be an underperformance not a flop or a bomb. 

[Nova]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

I see no way it will be profitable if it opens to 115m for the 3 day. It's opening on a weekend where it's very hard to get over a 2.5x multi or so, and critical reception doesn't exactly paint this as a WOM driven film. So 115 probably gives it like 290 at most, and even if we say OS share is oddly a bit higher than DOM for once, it still barely goes over 600 WW. I don't buy that's enough for profit with that budget. JL made more than that with a budget less than these reports we're getting for Solo's, and we know WB took a loss. 

Based on the presales in the OS threads it's not looking too hot there either  

[Nova]

2 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

Considering how much mocking Justice League received, If Solo ends up doing less than $700m I think it should be rightfully considered a bomb by BOT's standards.

Well yea this forum will call Solo a bomb but neither JL or Solo are bombs (if Solo does $600-700M). They're underperformances.