The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Istealnames]

Is there any data on if audiences overwhelmingly prefer to prebook a ticket during the winter holidays and prefer turning up directly during the summer? I don't understand how Thursday night can be empty otherwise. Bad WoM would take effect on Saturday and beyond. Does that mean the brand is tarnished or the negativity surrounding Solo is so overwhelming.

[TwoMisfits]

23 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

Okay, I'm gonna update...I missed the Regal's opening fan show b/c it doesn't show up on a Solo search, so I was wrong yesterday - they still have the same set as Sunday, but the fan show does give them a lot more seats sold:)...still amazingly low availability at the Regal for this movie, but here's the update...

 

Cinemark

Solo 10 showings (5 more than Sunday - added yesterday at noon) (2 3d / 8 3d)

2d 163/190, 80/110, (9pm added show blank - Fandango error or theater pulling?), 0/60 (added), 80/190,  6/110, (11:55pm and 12:05 am added shows also blank - will check later today to see what the deal is) = 329/660 (should have more seats available, unless Cinemark pulls the shows)

3d 59/110, 2nd show also blank - weird error = 59/110

Total sales 388/770

(+44 from Sunday with possible 9pm sales)

 

I'm not expecting the blank shows to have many presales b/c 3 of 4 missing ones are 11:30pm or later (the 9pm might have some already, so that could affect my next post)

 

Regal

Solo 6 showings (1 fan, 3 2d, 2 3d)

Fan event 150/175

2d 73/100, 52/175, 23/100 = 148/375

3d 59/100, 10/100 = 69/200

Total 367/750

(+209 from Sunday post, but more likely +75 or so since I missed the fan event, and I'm sure that was heavily sold then:)...

 

Pre-Movie Pass usage update:)...

 

Cinemark - I'm getting that weird "blank seat" error someone mentioned now on all shows - so this one is gonna miss the update...not sure if it's Fandango's issue or the theater is deleting showings/moving screens/what, but it's annoying...

 

Regal (still 6 shows - unbelievable to me for Star Wars, but there we are)

Fan event 150/175 (front row and a few spares still around for MP)

2d 75/100, 72/175, 26/100 = 173/375

3d 60/100, 13/100 = 73/200

Total 396/750

(+29 from yesterday)...

 

The 9pm show is 72 seats and the 10pms are 26 and 13 sold...this is weak after the 7s here, and I don't know that they will bother adding on late shows b/c they still have so much availability there...

[Nova]

15 minutes ago, Istealnames said:

Is there any data on if audiences overwhelmingly prefer to prebook a ticket during the winter holidays and prefer turning up directly during the summer? I don't understand how Thursday night can be empty otherwise. Bad WoM would take effect on Saturday and beyond. Does that mean the brand is tarnished or the negativity surrounding Solo is so overwhelming.

There isn't. I think people are expecting Solo to get walk ups from the family crowd since MDW is so busy and people already have plans set so it maybe a spur of the moment type of thing to go and see Solo. I know my area it's like the first weekend of the summer so there's a mad rush to head to the beach or have BBQs so I can see folks waiting until the weekend and then deciding to see it. 

 

From my perspective at least for Thursday night, Solo hasn't had an up swing in tickets. For example, just last week DP2 got several shows added last minute and they quickly filled up. Solo had shows added a night before DP2 got theirs added and well it's sold 15 tickets as of this morning from an additional 4 shows that were added. This leads me to believe that Solo had strong presales out of the gait (which is typical of a Star Wars film) and then just died down. As I've said earlier in this thread, if this movie does hit it's tracking numbers I think it's because of strong walk ups. It's just not seeing the upswing in tickets that I would expect from a film like this....at least at my theater. 

Edited May 24, 2018 by Nova

[Sheikh]

Movie Tickets Update

 

2018-05-24 12:00:50.609744 UTC
1	41.6%	Solo: A Star Wars Story
2	30.2%	Deadpool 2
3	8.6%	Book Club
4	8%	Avengers: Infinity War
5	1.6%	Life of the Party

 

At the same point in time last week:

 

2018-05-17 12:02:37.464061 UTC
1	50.8%	Deadpool 2
2	15.3%	Avengers: Infinity War
3	7.6%	Book Club
4	6%	Solo: A Star Wars Story
5	3.6%	Life of the Party

 

DP 2 is doing around about twice what AIW was doing in the dailies for Tues and Wed I think. So that kind of matches up to this, DP2 at 30.2% compared to AIW at 15.3% last week. This would indicate Solo is selling quite a bit less than DP2 was at the same point last week.

[Boxofficerules]

5 minutes ago, Sheikh said:

Movie Tickets Update

 

2018-05-24 12:00:50.609744 UTC
1	41.6%	Solo: A Star Wars Story
2	30.2%	Deadpool 2
3	8.6%	Book Club
4	8%	Avengers: Infinity War
5	1.6%	Life of the Party

 

At the same point in time last week:

 

2018-05-17 12:02:37.464061 UTC
1	50.8%	Deadpool 2
2	15.3%	Avengers: Infinity War
3	7.6%	Book Club
4	6%	Solo: A Star Wars Story
5	3.6%	Life of the Party

 

DP 2 is doing around about twice what AIW was doing in the dailies for Tues and Wed I think. So that kind of matches up to this, DP2 at 30.2% compared to AIW at 15.3% last week. This would indicate Solo is selling quite a bit less than DP2 was at the same point last week.

But AIW had been out for a few weeks. This is DP2s first full week.

[Nova]

11 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

But AIW had been out for a few weeks. This is DP2s first full week.

I think theyre taking into account ratios and what not based on the Fandango figures we got as well. Otherwise I don't know what dallies they're talking about 

Edited May 24, 2018 by Nova

[TalismanRing]

20 minutes ago, Sheikh said:

Movie Tickets Update

 

2018-05-24 12:00:50.609744 UTC
1	41.6%	Solo: A Star Wars Story
2	30.2%	Deadpool 2
3	8.6%	Book Club
4	8%	Avengers: Infinity War
5	1.6%	Life of the Party

 

At the same point in time last week:

 

2018-05-17 12:02:37.464061 UTC
1	50.8%	Deadpool 2
2	15.3%	Avengers: Infinity War
3	7.6%	Book Club
4	6%	Solo: A Star Wars Story
5	3.6%	Life of the Party

 

DP 2 is doing around about twice what AIW was doing in the dailies for Tues and Wed I think. So that kind of matches up to this, DP2 at 30.2% compared to AIW at 15.3% last week. This would indicate Solo is selling quite a bit less than DP2 was at the same point last week.

That would have Solo doing about 81% of DP2.

 

Interestingly, that % is about the same as Porthos' Sacramento seat report as of last night

 

.8227x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2* 1 day before release. (DP2 had two [or so] more days of pre-sales)

 

 

[Sheikh]

5 minutes ago, Nova said:

I think theyre taking into account ratios and what not based on the Fandango figures we got as well. Otherwise I don't know what dallies they're talking about 

I'm talking about the dailes this week and last week for DP2 and AIW. DP2 did 12.4m Tuesday, AIW did 6m last Tuesday. That's what I'm comparing this week to last week.

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

1 minute ago, Sheikh said:

I'm talking about the dailes this week and last week for DP2 and AIW. DP2 did 12.4m Tuesday, AIW did 6m last Tuesday. That's what I'm comparing this week to last week.

Yes, but we know that the % of online sales vs actual gross goes down the longer you stay in the theater. So it’s not 100% comparable 

[MattW]

20 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

That would have Solo doing about 81% of DP2.

 

Interestingly, that % is about the same as Porthos' Sacramento seat report as of last night

 

.8227x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2* 1 day before release. (DP2 had two [or so] more days of pre-sales)

That would put Solo 35-40% ahead of Deadpool taking into account the much higher total ticket sales this week over last week.

[TalismanRing]

3 minutes ago, MattW said:

That would put Solo 35-40% ahead of Deadpool taking into account the much higher total ticket sales this week over last week.

35-40% higher than Deadpool 2 this week?  Or o/w.  The first is sort of a disaster for Solo and the second isn't happening. 

 

It's still lagging in comparison of opening week to week sales on Fandango and Porthos's numbers are total sets sold which takes into account prior selling.

 

[TalismanRing]

Fandango (Eye Count 5-10 min avg)

 

THUR

 

• WW: 46 (10am), 125 (5pm)
• SM:HC: 49avg (9am), 110 (12pm), 138( 1pm) 174 (3:50pm), 216 (5:20pm)
• IT: 25 (8:20am) 41(9am) 102 (12:20pm) 140 (1pm) 186 (4:50pm)
• THOR:R: 103 (12:15) 112 (1:15pm), 145 (4pm) 175 (4:50)
• JL: 45.2 (10am), 78 (12pm), 92 (1:30pm), 103 (3:30pm), 124 (4:15pm), 145 (5:30pm), 156 (7:45)
• TLJ: 275 (10:45am)
• BP: 244 (2:30)
• AIW: 240 (11:15am), 305 (3pm)
• DP2: 55 (9:30 am), 60 (10am), 98.75 (12pm), 165.5 (3:20pm), 204 (5:20pm)

 

Solo: 47 (10:10am), 57 (10.30am)

 

[Lordmandeep]

 

 

 

 

[Cmasterclay]

Think it is headed towards about 13.5m or so tonight, right in range with Spider-Man or Wonder Woman or Thor: Ragnarok. But should be much more frontloaded

[MattW]

1 hour ago, TalismanRing said:

35-40% higher than Deadpool 2 this week?  Or o/w.  The first is sort of a disaster for Solo and the second isn't happening. 

 

It's still lagging in comparison of opening week to week sales on Fandango and Porthos's numbers are total sets sold which takes into account prior selling.

 

Movietickets is sales in the last 24 hours.  Total sales for Tuesday the 22nd was about 70% more than total sales for deadpool's equivalent Tuesday.  Solo having 40% of total sales this week compared to Deadpool having 50% of total sales last week would translate to Solo having more, but my math before was too simplistic.  Going through it again I'd say it's more like 17% ahead of deadpool comparing those two 24 hour periods.

 

Of course that's just MT which is a relatively small piece of the market compared to fandango.

Edited May 24, 2018 by MattW

[a2k]

Pro.BO is forecasting 100-125 FSS (80-100% of DP2's FSS). Looking at preview to OW ratios of TFA, RO and TLJ, Solo should be more preview heavy (5-6x) than DP2 (6.75x). So if it manages to hit 125 like DP2 would be with a 21-25 Thu (5-6x gives 125) which seems unlikely looking at the last couple of pages here.

 

15-20 Thu with 6x gives 90-120 FSS.

Edited May 24, 2018 by A2k Raptor

[EmpireCity]

Yeah, have to admit fully this is looking more Justice League than anything.  

 

Sales simply haven't picked up.  

[a2k]

Good thing is that with low expectations 105-110 FSS will look decent and 115-120 FSS a win.

[WrathOfHan]

Update:

 

7:00: 95/124

7:00 3D: 56/113 +8

7:30: 10/67

7:30 3D: 22/78 +8

7:45: 15/63

8:00: 47/78 +1

8:30 3D: 17/69

9:00: 46/78 +4

9:45: 3/78

Total: 311/618 (+46/+130) (216 2D/95 3D)

 

Comps (previews/final total):

 

29% of The Last Jedi (13.1M)

29% of Infinity War (11.3M)

63% of Black Panther (15.9M)

73% of Deadpool 2 (13.6M)

92% of Thor: Ragnarok (12.4M)

97% of Justice League (12.6M)

 

If not for the two new shows, sales would've barely moved from yesterday. Even the new shows aren't selling insane right now. Thor and JL had nowhere near the amount of showtimes, so if it barely moves ahead of those two, that's a bad sign for the weekend.

[GambitPool]

My theater currently:

 

3D XD Showings:

 

10:15pm

20/124 seats sold.

 

Regular 3D Showings:

 

7:00pm

48/64 seats sold.

 

Regular 2D Showings:

 

7:45pm

72/106 sold.

 

8:30pm

21/94 sold.

 

11:00pm

33/94 sold.

 

My theater's undergoing renovation's so only half the theater's open. Less showings, but they aren't sold out. Maybe it'll pick up? Doesn't look too good for sellouts here.