The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[excel1]

JW dominating Fandango and in the lead on MT. Bolds well for epic weekend 

[MikeQ]

Putting all my updates from the weekend thread here now that the thread is unlocked (so we have them all for future reference):

 

MT Update (4:20PM EDT / 1:20PM PDT):

 

Incredibles 2: 45.4%

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom: 39.8%

Ocean's 8: 2.9%

Tag: 1.9%

Solo: A Star Wars Story: 1.1%

 

MT Update (5:20PM EDT / 2:20PM PDT):

 

Incredibles 2: 44.3%

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom: 41.2%

Ocean's 8: 2.9%

Tag: 1.8%

Solo: A Star Wars Story: 1%

 

MT Update (6:15PM EDT / 3:15PM PDT):

 

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom: 43%

Incredibles 2: 43%

Ocean's 8: 2.9%

Tag: 1.7%

Solo: A Star Wars Story: 1%

 

MT Update (7:15PM EDT / 4:15PM PDT):

 

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom: 44.7%

Incredibles 2: 41.6%

Ocean's 8: 2.9%

Tag: 1.6%

Solo: A Star Wars Story: 1%

 

Peace,

Mike

[Sam]

Wow, lots of sensitivity and rage blaming in here.

 

Anyway, it’s a bit hard for me to predict Thu previews because there are some discrepancies between my local theaters

 

Cinemark theaters (I track 3) are selling ok/great. 70-85% full for 7pm-10pm showtimes; and 40% or less for anything past that.

 

But AMC theaters (also tracking 3) are doing ok at best. 40-50% full for 7pm showtimes. Dead after 9pm.

 

I’m gonna be cautious and keep the 14-15M projections. It might go up as I keep an eye on those later showtimes.

[excel1]

Strange that people think $14-15m in previews is weak given context.

[TalismanRing]

Fandango avg per 5 minutes (eyeball method)

[not this does not take into account pre-sales) 

 

WW:  125 (5pm)  ($11m previews)

SM:HC: 216 (5:20pm)  ($15.4m previews)

IT: 186 (4:50pm) ($13.5m previews)

Thor:R 175 (4:50) ($14.5m previews)

JL: (5:20pm) 145  ($13m previews)

DP2:  204 (5:20pm)

Solo: 134 (5:45pm)

JP:FK: 155 (5:30pm)

 

My guess $13-14m in previews (or I could Deadline it and say 12-15)

[excel1]

JW is obliterating INC on Fandango which is strongest indicator of all. 

[BugsBunny]

4 minutes ago, excel1 said:

JW is obliterating INC on Fandango which is strongest indicator of all. 

I think this movie has a chance to make a lot of people feel very silly.

 

(Not even saying that I'm sure it won't do $100mm so then it would be me looking silly!)

[excel1]

"SUB $100M OW?!?! #2 FINISH?!"

 

[MovieMan89]

21 minutes ago, excel1 said:

Strange that people think $14-15m in previews is weak given context.

You mean the context that its predecessor did 4m higher 3 years ago? 

 

14-15m would make over DP2 very hard. 

[excel1]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

You mean the context that its predecessor did 4m higher 3 years ago? 

 

14-15m would make over DP2 very hard. 

Wrong.

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

You mean the context that its predecessor did 4m higher 3 years ago? 

 

14-15m would make over DP2 very hard. 

 

I disagree. Deadpool is WAY more of a frontloaded brand than JP/JW.

[BugsBunny]

3 minutes ago, excel1 said:

Wrong.

You're responding to a guy who thinks JWFK is doing $90mm. It's (much) more likely to clear that by Saturday night than to miss it for the whole weekend.

[MovieMan89]

Just now, Brainbug said:

 

I disagree. Deadpool is WAY more of a frontloaded brand than JP/JW.

Funny thing about that: lots of people were arguing that weekend that DP wasn't very frontloaded at all compared to many franchises. Of course they were going off of the first one and forgetting its nature as a sequel. 

 

14-15m previews translating to 120m OW would make it way less frontloaded than DP2 for the record. 

[excel1]

We aint going back to Jakku

[BugsBunny]

Let's remember this super important fact: the pre-sales data we saw in a variety of places on this forum was weak, even optimists would have to agree on that. 

 

BUT, that means that if this posts a respectable preview number, it is actually quite strong reinforcing evidence that the walk-up theory is correct, and that we could be heading to or above the higher end of what anyone is expecting at the moment based on pre-sales data.

[MikeQ]

MT Update (8:15PM EDT / 5:15PM PDT):

 

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom: 46.5%

Incredibles 2: 40.2%

Ocean's 8: 2.8%

Tag: 1.6%

Solo: A Star Wars Story: 1%

 

Peace,

Mike

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, BugsBunny said:

Let's remember this super important fact: the pre-sales data we saw in a variety of places on this forum was weak, even optimists would have to agree on that. 

 

BUT, that means that if this posts a respectable preview number, it is actually quite strong reinforcing evidence that the walk-up theory is correct, and that we could be heading to or above the higher end of what anyone is expecting at the moment based on pre-sales data.

I guess some of us have different ideas of what will be a "respectable" preview #. I hardly see how sub 15m is a good sign for a sequel to a movie that had $19m previews 3 years ago. 

 

If this movie were going to somehow open on par with JW for example, it would need to be pulling a solid 25-30m in previews given its a direct sequel and previews are stronger than 3 years ago. 

Edited June 22, 2018 by MovieMan89

[Biggestgeekever]

https://variety.com/2018/film/box-office/box-office-hotel-transylvania-3-summer-vacation-1202854033/

 

HT3: $40-45M

Skyscraper: $32-40M

 

With summer weekdays, HT3 should be right around the other two with that weekend. Skyscraper is probably not in great shape unless it's on the high end.

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

https://variety.com/2018/film/box-office/box-office-hotel-transylvania-3-summer-vacation-1202854033/

 

HT3: $40-45M

Skyscraper: $32-40M

 

With summer weekdays, HT3 should be right around the other two with that weekend. Skyscraper is probably not in great shape unless it's on the high end.

Skyscraper is screwed if it’s on the lower end. Barring strong legs, theaters will be quick to drop it on August 3

[excel1]

Jay Dub with a commanding lead in presales