The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

As I suspected might happen, Captain Marvel has dropped a bit on the relative number as Discount Tuesday rolls in over at MT.com:

 

2019-03-05 18:00:26.437656 UTC
1	42.8%	Captain Marvel
2	12.9%	Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral
3	10%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
4	3.5%	Green Book
5	2.9%	Alita: Battle Angel

2019-03-05 19:00:33.607122 UTC
1	41.7%	Captain Marvel
2	13.8%	Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral
3	9.7%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
4	3.6%	Green Book
5	2.9%	Alita: Battle Angel

 

Still a very very good number. Be very interested to see how it fares over at Fandango as the day goes on.

[Eric S'ennui]

https://deadline.com/2019/03/captain-marvel-box-office-opening-record-preview-1202569811/

 

Quote

Here comes Captain Marvel to the rescue and to set the box office back on track.

 

Business is about to get better for 2019 as Disney’s Captain Marvel, the first Marvel movie since July’s Ant-Man and the Wasp is hoping to rocket-charge to a $150M start in U.S./Canada and a $350M worldwide opening, which would be higher than DC’s Wonder Woman ($228.3M), Justice League ($278.8M), and Fox/Marvel’s Deadpool 2 ($300.4M), and just under Black Panther‘s WW first frame of $371.4M. What’s giving further juice to the lofty Captain Marvel stateside forecast is that we’re hearing the pic’s advance ticket sales are beating that of last April’s Avengers: Infinity War. After a slew of superheros vanished into thin air in that movie, fans can’t wait to see Captain Marvel as it’s the appetizer and bridge to next month’s Avengers: End Game.

 

Yes, tracking does show a $120M-$140M start for the Brie Larson-Samuel L. Jackson movie here (their third team-up onscreen after Kong: Skull Island and Larson’s directorial Unicorn Store)  in the U.S at 4,200 theaters, but industry projection believe that the marketplace is just salivating for a great superhero five-quad movie. It’s just been too long. Should Captain Marvel fall short of $150M, yet north of $100M, she’ll still be fine, and know that tracking isn’t exact for any movie once it’s projected past the century mark. 

 

In regards to the rest of the world, Captain Marvel takes off tomorrow in majors that include France, Italy and Korea. From there, Carol Danvers adds Germany, Russia, Brazil and Australia on Thursday and essentially all other markets, including the UK, Spain, Mexico and China, on Friday (but not Japan which goes March 15). Industry sources are pegging the offshore opening at anywhere from $180M-$200M with some seeing it at $210M+; a lot of that depends on China. Ant-Man And The Wasp opened at $177M offshoore in like-for-likes and at current rates last July with domestic. After the holiday heft of DC’s Aquaman, nothing has energized fanboys and girls since.

 

China tracking is hot for Carol Danvers. Pre-sales there at the last count we’ve heard have already reached around $5M which is bigger than Venom, Aquaman, Captain America: Civil War and all other superhero films save Avengers: Infinity War at the same point. Whereas Wonder Woman finaled at $90.5M in the Middle Kingdom, Captain Marvel is looking at upwards of $85M for just the opening three-day (some industry sources are seeing it lower, around $60M). There is no Douban score yet.

 

[Porthos]

Quote

but industry projection believe that the marketplace is just salivating for a great superhero five-quad movie.

[Legion Again]

26 minutes ago, Porthos said:

They really weren’t joking about going FURTHER. 125% effort.     

 

Also,  

 

Quote

Industry sources are pegging the offshore opening at anywhere from $180M-$200M

Ah yes, ye olde 90M OS-C debut...

[Stewart]

38 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

we’re hearing the pic’s advance ticket sales are beating that of last April’s Avengers: Infinity War.

Any idea where they've got this from?? It's behind it on Fandango and definitely Wang and Porthos too. No idea where they have got this from. 

38 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Industry sources are pegging the offshore opening at anywhere from $180M-$200M with some seeing it at $210M+

This is just laughable. 

 

With $90m China and at least $20m SK, the possibility of just $70-90m elsewhere is utterly atrocious. Going to be closer to $300m than $200m me thinks. I think a WW start of $400m is happening at least. 

[FlashMaster659]

Slightly under BP again on MT

 

2019-03-05 20:00:33.460986 UTC
1	40%	Captain Marvel
2	14.5%	Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral
3	10.1%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
4	3.6%	Green Book
5	3%	Alita: Battle Angel

2018-02-13 20:01:42.422099 UTC
1	40.3%	Black Panther
2	22.8%	Fifty Shades Freed
3	5.6%	15:17 to Paris, The
4	5.5%	Peter Rabbit
5	2.7%	Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

[Legion Again]

7 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

Any idea where they've got this from?? It's behind it on Fandango and definitely Wang and Porthos too. No idea where they have got this from. 

This is just laughable. 

 

With $90m China and at least $20m SK, the possibility of just $70-90m elsewhere is utterly atrocious. Going to be closer to $300m than $200m me thinks. I think a WW start of $400m is happening at least. 

~175+100+150, should at least beat BvS 422 for second largest SH WW OW all time.    

 

Also the quote about outpacing IW is NUTSO  and I honestly assume some kind of mistake. Perhaps they meant BP?

Edited March 5, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[Rebeccas]

2 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

~175+100+150, should at least beat BvS 422 for second largest SH WW OW all time.    

 

Also the quote about outpacing IW is NUTSO  and I honestly assume some kind of mistake. Perhaps they meant BP?

Well it's Deadline right? So probably mistake lol

[Stewart]

1 minute ago, Thanos Legion said:

~175+100+150, should at least beat BvS 422 for second largest SH WW OW all time.    

 

Also the quote about outpacing IW is NUTSO  and I honestly assume some kind of mistake. Perhaps they meant BP?

To make matters worse, it looks terrible for them if it's outpacing Infinity War in presales yet they're predicting barely 60% of its OW...

[ThomasNicole]

After that 9.4M with almost 3 days to count, I think this is finishing with 12-13M.

 

It’s becoming really hard not seeing this making +160M. Still expecting 150M just to not be disappointed.

[Premium George]

No, DL are right. $300m OW. 3 in a year.

[Porthos]

12 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

Any idea where they've got this from??

No idea.  Maybe some sort of metric where it's a 12 hour or 24 hour snapshot which ignores the massive built in lead IW had as well as ignoring screen expansion (locally CM actually managed to have more screens/seats than IW did on the Monday of release week [I don't expect this to last]).

 

Like, if I ignored the fact that I now extra sources of seat level info, I could claim that CM beat IW locally yesterday on seats sold (551 v 549).  But it'd be stupid to ignore the fact that I can track 1 7/8ths more theaters right now, hence the adj comp of 500 v 549.

 

So...  Dunno.  I know there are "lies, damned lies, and statistics", but even that seems to stretch credulity. 

 

Edited March 5, 2019 by Porthos

[ThomasNicole]

Worldwide this is probably coming with around $ 450M ($ 150M from US, Asia and rest of the world).

[Biggestgeekever]

17 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

Any idea where they've got this from?? It's behind it on Fandango and definitely Wang and Porthos too. No idea where they have got this from. 

This is just laughable. 

 

Best guess: they're referring to Atom ticket sales and didn't mention that because Deadline will Deadline.

[ZeeSoh]

59 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Cats.....it's Cats

[Legion Again]

6 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Cats.....it's Cats

Classic Deadline mistake to disrespect cats like this. My tracking data shows CM doing spectacular business with older male cats, younger male cats, older female cats, and yes, especially younger female cats. It’s a clear 8 quad movie.

[Horner]

46 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

Any idea where they've got this from?? It's behind it on Fandango and definitely Wang and Porthos too. No idea where they have got this from. 

This is just laughable.

 

 

Well it does say "we're hearing" without giving any hint or qualifier of who they're hearing it from.  For all we know they're having an intern read some random reddit post aloud just so they could punch up the piece.

[Biggestgeekever]

Oh, this is what DL meant

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/captain-marvel-top-fandango-preseller-avengers-infinity-war-1192446?utm_source=twitter&utm_source=t.co&utm_medium=referral

 

Quote

Captain Marvel has scored more advance ticket sales than any movie since fellow Marvel juggernaut Avengers: Infinity War in late April of last year, Fandango announced Tuesday.

 

[Legion Again]

6 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

Oh, this is what DL meant

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/captain-marvel-top-fandango-preseller-avengers-infinity-war-1192446?utm_source=twitter&utm_source=t.co&utm_medium=referral

 

 

So... more than I2 and Fallen Kingdom. Doesn’t say much.

[Legion Again]

Some hourly check-ins on the Fandango 24 hr tracker:  

Tues 3/5   

12:00 39.6k

13:00  39.8k

14:00  38.8k

15:00  38.8k

16:00  38.6k     

17:00  38.5k

18:00  38.8k

19:00 38.6k

20:00 38.1k

21:00 39.1k 

 

As we can see it’s trending down a bit (1k in 4 hours), not sure if that will continue or reverse. Still as long as it ends near Monday’s 34K (which would also be near BP’s Tuesday 36k) that will be very healthy.

Edited March 6, 2019 by Thanos Legion