The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[DisposedData]

10 hours ago, DAJK said:

That 110M budget for MiB is really impressive IMO, and is going to help the film in the long run.

More like hurt it.

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 hours ago, Cookson said:

@Menor @keysersoze123

 

How is Godzilla looking? Any chance it could have a better Sunday than what’s projected? Asking because my theater actually is doing decent Godzilla business today.

I was busy all day so didn't track the whole time but it doesn't look like it'll improve from estimates. 12-13 seems like the range :(. At least the movie was good

[Ledmonkey96]

Huh.... depending on how everything goes Disney could top 40% of the Market after TS4's OW if it over-performs enough.... It's at 35.6% thru thursday

[keysersoze123]

6 hours ago, Cookson said:

@Menor @keysersoze123

 

How is Godzilla looking? Any chance it could have a better Sunday than what’s projected? Asking because my theater actually is doing decent Godzilla business today.

I did not track as well. Looking at Fandango reports page, it dropped in low 20% but walkins will be weaker late in the evening for many reasons. 1. its back to work tomorrow 2. tiny effect of NBA finals for bay area/Toronto.

 

I still think Zilla will drop from estimates. We will know tomorrow morning. Couple of holdovers could increase few % from estimates. But nothing dramatic overall.

Edited June 3, 2019 by keysersoze123

[DAJK]

47 minutes ago, DisposedData said:

More like hurt it.

Why? The last one cost 225M+. They really cut the budget for this, a movie that could have easily cost 200 or more.

[Porthos]

Toy Story 4 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-18 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	89	10900	12198	10.64%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                    71

 

Unadjusted Comps

4.2554x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu after six days of pre-sales. 

2.2653x as many tickets sold as Aladdin after six days of pre-sales.

2.3179x as many tickets sold as King of the Monsters after six days of pre-sales.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  Pika Pika had 29 days of pre-sales, Aladdin had 24, and King of the Monsters had 20 days of pre-sales while Toy Story 4 has 23 days of pre-sales.

 

Day 6:

Pika         22 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/72 showings   |     7704/8009 seats left    |  3.81% sold]

Aladdin    32 tickets sold [0 sellouts/68 showings   |     9232/9773 seats left     |  5.86% sold]

KotM        39 tickets sold [0 sellouts/87 showings   |  11056/11616 seats left    |  4.82% sold]

 

Adjusted Comps

1.0678x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom after six days of pre-sales.       

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

PRE-SALES NOTE: Fallen Kingdom had 22 days of pre-sales while Toy Story 4 has 23 days of pre-sales.

 

Day 6:

JW2               96 tickets sold [0 sellouts/97 showings |    8962/10113 seats left  | 11.38% sold]

TS4 (JW)        68 tickets sold [0 sellouts/89 showings |    9304/10533 seats left  | 11.67% sold]

TS4 (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom.

NOTE::: Starting tomorrow I will be switching all comps to a "x days away from release" as opposed to the current "after x days of pre-sales".

[Porthos]

Far From Home Greater Sacramento Area MIDNIGHT SCREENINGS Seat Report: T-29 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	14	2044	2338*	12.57%

*NOTE:  One theater adjusted the seats available for one of their showings downward by one.

 

Total Seats Sold Since Thr:                12

 

No comps at the moment. 

 

Next update: Thr 6/6

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-06-01 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	24.012%	18345	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019) [combined]
2	22.621%	17282	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
3	18.173%	13884	Rocketman
4	10.145%	7751	Ma (2019)
5	07.647%	5842	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
6	05.374%	4106	Avengers Endgame (2019)
7	03.151%	2407	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
8	02.427%	1854	Booksmart
9	01.309%	1000	Brightburn
10	00.911%	696	Dark Phoenix [combined]

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-06-02 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	23.796%	18041	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
2	23.135%	17540	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019) [combined]
3	15.819%	11993	Rocketman
4	08.948%	6784	Ma (2019)
5	07.906%	5994	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
6	05.265%	3992	Avengers Endgame (2019)
7	03.342%	2534	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
8	02.328%	1765	Booksmart
9	01.929%	1463	Dark Phoenix [combined]
10	01.576%	1195	Brightburn

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Far From Home Greater Sacramento Area MIDNIGHT SCREENINGS Seat Report: T-29 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	14	2044	2338*	12.57%

*NOTE:  One theater adjusted the seats available for one of their showings downward by one.

 

Total Seats Sold Since Thr:                12

 

No comps at the moment. 

 

Next update: Thr 6/6

There are no comps as we have not had any midnights for a while. Can you you OD instead.

Edited June 3, 2019 by keysersoze123

[Porthos]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

There are no comps as we have not had any midnights for a while. Can you you OD instead.

I could.

 

Spoiler

I WON'T because I also don't have any Full Tue comps either.   But I could, sure.

 

[keysersoze123]

Just now, Porthos said:

I could.

 

  Hide contents

I WON'T because I also don't have any Full Tue comps either.   But I could, sure.

 

I was just kidding. Just do midnights and use it as it becomes more common(its more a hope).

 

Would love to see what could happen with SW9 opening just in midnights creating SITH like craze playing in all screens at the Major Plexes.

[Porthos]

I am actually strongly thinking about roping in the Limited Engagement Data I have for the Tue sneaks for FB2.  Kinda apples and oranges, but it might give us a sense of what's going on.

 

Biggest pain in the ass would be extracting the data as I didn't separate it at the time.  Also wouldn't be useful quite yet as FB2 had 30 days of pre-sales and FFH has just entered that window.

 

But I might decide to use it.  Might be the best comp I have, outside of a similar thing I have for A Star is Born (but there I have, I think, one or two days worth of data max as it was a spur of the moment thing).

[keysersoze123]

In a way midnight start is bo different from early previews. Fans would be there. We have had midnight's as big as 43m. So you compare it to say previous movie previews or even Cap Marvel.

[Hokkaido MUTO]

So how’s Dark Phoenix doing? 

[keysersoze123]

5 minutes ago, Hokkaido MUTO said:

So how’s Dark Phoenix doing? 

[TalismanRing]

10 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

In a way midnight start is bo different from early previews. Fans would be there. We have had midnight's as big as 43m. So you compare it to say previous movie previews or even Cap Marvel.

Those weren't just midnights though, they were previews that started at midnight then ran through to morning with 2am, 3am, 4am, 5am, 5:30am shows.  So far looking at SM:HC they're just midnights. At my local there are three screens with showings that start between midnight and 12:30am.  That's it.   It might expand but CM started with around 12 or 13 then expanded to 19 showings.

 

We could use them as comps to try and find out the preview number  but the preview to o/w ratio would be vastly different.  We'd have to go back to The Avengers or actually ASM2 which had $7.5m in midnights on a Monday though numbers of screens and IMAX and PLF growth would still make one to one comps  difficult.

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3478

Edited June 3, 2019 by TalismanRing

[Porthos]

Yes, for instance in Sacramento only six theaters have midnight screenings at the moment.  The most showings any one theater has at the moment is three.

 

That’s one reason why I am thinking about comparing it to a limited engagement, if super sized.  It’s playing in a fraction of theaters, just like a limited engagement and it doesn’t have very many showings. 

 

The big downside wiith comparing it to a le is that those limited engagements are still at prime viewing hours and so they fill up a lot faster than the midnights currently are.  But it might still be the best thing I have as any sort of comp.

[Cap]

Lincoln Square is only doing one IMAX showing of FFH at midnight.  Eyeballing it, I'd say 175/480.

 

Cinemagic isn't doing midnights.  They're opening at 12PM.  First show's kind of dead, but the 7PM IMAX screen's packed.  Again, eyeballing, 95/144

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, Hokkaido MUTO said:

So how’s Dark Phoenix doing? 

[Porthos]

It only took me a few minutes, so I did do another check of Dark Phoenix locally tonight.

 

As I predicted the comps did in fact go up.  But mostly because it would have been hard not to go up.  

 

Unfortunately, looks like most of my comps only went up by around .3m or so (+/- .1m) from my last check.

 

Right now, Dark P sits at 768 tickets sold locally, up from 618 a couple of days ago.  Unfortunately that's still behind the normal pace of even the lower end of films I've been tracking.

 

I can rope in Ant-Man and the Wasp as a comp starting tomorrow and Venom on Tue.  Perhaps surprisingly enough it's not looking terrible against AM&tW as a comp (it's gonna be at least in the 4m range somewhere).  But then again, that film took off like a rocket in its last couple of days, so comps against it only go so far.

 

If folks want I can post all of my comps I have (if so I'll post it tomorrow).  Also might take a looksee on Tue and Thr, if only out of morbid curiosity.

 

So it has gone up a tick from Friday.  But, then again, it would have been a really bad sign if it hadn't.