The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[charlie Jatinder]

We know this for weeks now that CMK will have record previews. Ehh.

[keysersoze123]

Sucks that the movie that broke the record we could not track for Cinemark :-(

 

@Menor can we look at Top20 theaters or something to track. it might work with smaller subset. 

[charlie Jatinder]

With more clarity on AMC, think we had roughly $14.75M previews in there. That would be pre-CoVID mean $55M previews, but we are missing some local cinemas and Regal is a big loser there. 

 

Though I now feel confident about $50M. Let's go $49-51M.

 

If any consolation, 2nd biggest previews admits wise beating TFA quite easily IMO. TFA had very big 3D turnout and Spidey hurt by Matinee pricing. Without Matinee pricing we would be looking at $55M previews most likely.

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Sucks that the movie that broke the record we could not track for Cinemark 😞

 

@Menor can we look at Top20 theaters or something to track. it might work with smaller subset. 

I was getting blocked for almost all shows last time I tried. 

[Danhjpn]

 

 

[XXR & Friends]

 

[Inceptionzq]

8 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

No Way Home Alamo Drafthouse Friday(533 showings) 

 

40268(+3315)/62018

 

Eternals final comp: 65.54M

No Way Home Alamo Drafthouse Friday(533 showings) 

 

42667(+2399)/62018

 

Eternals final comp: 69.45M

[Inceptionzq]

8 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

No Way Home Megaplex Friday(322 showings)

 

29841(+2884)/72803(+1512) in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 68.76M

 

Removed the Black Widow comp because it would be at almost 85M. Seems a tad unrealistic...

No Way Home Megaplex Friday(322 showings)

 

30912(+1071)/72803 in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 71.23M

[keysersoze123]

Nice round number. Amazing with all the shows it honed in on that number :-) We also rarely get updates for previews and so it will be rolled into OD number. 

[XXR & Friends]

4 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

No Way Home Alamo Drafthouse Friday(533 showings) 

 

42667(+2399)/62018

 

Eternals final comp: 69.45M

No Way Home Megaplex Friday(322 showings)

 

30912(+1071)/72803 in 15 theaters

 

NTTD final comp: 71.23M

 

I'd really like $70M to put this over TFA OD, if you could make that happen please  

 

Edited December 17, 2021 by GoblinXXR

[Inceptionzq]

3 minutes ago, GoblinXXR said:

 

I'd really like $70M to put this over TFA OD, if you could make that happen please  

 

Take the average of Megaplex and Drafthouse 

[ZackM]

22 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Sucks that the movie that broke the record we could not track for Cinemark 😞

 

@Menor can we look at Top20 theaters or something to track. it might work with smaller subset. 

I think finding a handful of medium sized chains to track could be really valuable.

[keysersoze123]

7 minutes ago, GoblinXXR said:

 

I'd really like $70M to put this over TFA OD, if you could make that happen please  

 

you are expecting 40% boost without boost to show counts. Dont forget it opened at 3PM yesterday that makes such an increase impossible. Was just browsing few key theaters. Dolby/Imax etc are near sellout full day but early 2D shows not so much. 

 

2D 1115AM at Empire sold 24/377. Its still a work day and last day at school at many places. 

 

 

[XXR & Friends]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

you are expecting 40% boost without boost to show counts. Dont forget it opened at 3PM yesterday that makes such an increase impossible. Was just browsing few key theaters. Dolby/Imax etc are near sellout full day but early 2D shows not so much. 

 

2D 1115AM at Empire sold 24/377. Its still a work day and last day at school at many places. 

 

 

 

"I'd really like.." does not equal "expecting"

I do expect at least 20-25% though, yes. 

[Inceptionzq]

Yeah I don’t get final numbers for Megaplex or Drafthouse, so I don’t get the scope of walkups post showtime starts. Not too much of a problem for previews, but it is a problem for FSS. That’s why I usually don’t put my own prediction for the weekend days

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 12/10/2021 at 8:50 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

US showtime sample 12/10 weekend

 

Movie	Theaters	Shows	Change	Standard	PLF	IMAX	3D
West Side Story	2,479	54,697		46,557	8,140	3,038	0
Encanto	3,015	48,453	-28.65%	46,495	1,958	0	396
Ghostbusters	3,006	43,290	-26.66%	41,814	1,476	0	0
House of Gucci	2,815	28,220	-18.59%	28,113	107	0	0
Eternals	2,482	23,800	32.09%	23,685	115	0	15
Resident Evil	2,198	20,860	-28.09%	20,761	99	0	0
Clifford	2,093	16,405	-35.44%	16,346	59	0	0
National Champions	1,174	15,457		15,434	23	0	0
Don't Look Up	655	8,118		8,107	11	0	0
King Richard	1,066	6,733	-58.81%	6,719	14	0	0
Venom 2	831	6,444	-16.19%	6,444	0	0	0
Being the Ricardos	462	5,093		5,093	0	0	0
Matrix	849	4,564		3,971	593	411	0
Belfast	596	4,216	-51.03%	4,216	0	0	0
Green Knight	702	4,204		4,204	0	0	0
Dune	654	4,159	-43.11%	3,908	251	230	0
No Time to Die	606	3,696	-33.16%	3,690	6	0	6
Sword Art Online	392	3,596	-2.63%	3,596	0	0	0
True to the Game 3	320	2,866		2,852	14	0	0
C'mon C'mon	462	2,514	-58.50%	2,514	0	0	0
French Dispatch	192	1,488	-35.42%	1,488	0	0	0

*I removed the other PLF columns, but they are still included in the PLF totals

 

Biggest thing that stands out to me is the 32% increase in Eternals shows.  I had to double count just to make sure that was right.  I guess there's a push to get everyone to catch up on MCU before Spider-Man.  West Side Story is pretty comparable to recent musicals In the Heights (55,061) and Dear Evan Hansen (50,762), while National Champions is in the Show Me the Father (15,629), Joe Bell (13,994) and Zola (16,722) range.

 

Future releases

 

Early Access

12/12 A Journal for Jordan - 398 (398 TC)

12/15 Nightmare Alley - 829 (819 TC)

12/15-12/18 American Underdog - 2,203 (1,003 TC)

 

T-1 Week (full weekend)

Spider-Man - 135,877 (3,146 TC) (31,815 previews in 3,060)

Nightmare Alley - 14,207 (1,231 TC) (1,703 previews in 996)

 

T-2 Week (previews)

King's Man - 4,528 (1,835 TC)

 

T-2 Week (OD)

Matrix - 8,183 (2,078 TC)

Sing 2 - 9,498 (2,220 TC)

 

T-2 Week (12/24 shows - OD or previews?)

Licorice Pizza - 917 (451 TC)

American Underdog - 340 (165 TC)

Journal for Jordan - 882 (353 TC)

US showtime sample 12/17 weekend

 

Movie	Theaters	Shows	Change	Standard	PLF	IMAX	3D
Spider-Man	3,340	206,421		177,797	28,624	5,093	14,188
Encanto	2,892	36,779	-24.09%	36,622	157	0	91
Ghostbusters: Afterlife	2,781	31,463	-27.32%	31,369	94	0	0
West Side Story	2,471	28,409	-48.06%	28,349	60	0	0
Nightmare Alley	1,911	24,922		24,872	50	0	0
House of Gucci	1,528	14,874	-47.29%	14,856	18	0	0
Eternals	1,610	14,579	-38.74%	14,545	34	0	0
Clifford	655	4,878	-70.27%	4,866	12	0	0
Resident Evil	619	4,369	-79.06%	4,369	0	0	0
Christmas with Chosen	598	4,019		4,015	4	0	0
Don't Look Up	582	3,689	-54.56%	3,680	9	0	0
National Champions	842	2,965	-80.82%	2,962	3	0	0
Venom	390	2,807	-56.44%	2,807	0	0	0
Being the Ricardos	433	2,765	-45.71%	2,765	0	0	0
American Underdog (EA)	941	1,923		1,921	2	0	0
Dune	206	1,202	-71.10%	1,197	5	0	0
No Time to Die	181	1,025	-72.27%	1,025	0	0	0
Belfast	123	746	-82.31%	746	0	0	0
King Richard	122	688	-89.78%	688	0	0	0
French Dispatch	99	681	-54.23%	681	0	0	0

 

Huge drops across the board as expected.  

 

Future releases

 

Early Access

American Underdog (12/17-12/19) - 1,923 (941 TC)

 

T-1 Week

Sing (3-Day) - 29,347 (2,797 TC)

Sing (5-Day) - 57,601 (2,797)

Matrix (3-Day) - 23,924 (2,657)

Matrix (5-Day) - 46,330 (2,657)

King's Man (3-Day) - 19,568 (2,456)

King's Man (5-Day) - 42,918 (2,456)

Journal for Jordan - 12,263 (1,316)

Licorice Pizza - 5,632 (607)

 

T-3 Week Previews

The 355 - 1,082 (690)

 

T-4 Week Previews

Belle - 1,197 (728)

Scream - 2,631 (1,258)

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

 

A - 10,729 (590)

C - 7,355 (311)

Querying all theaters I am seeing below for today.

A - 11256(590 Theaters)

C - 8563(318 Theaters)

 

Few more will be added if plexes cancel shows for older movies and switch with NWH. But can you track shows by time. I want to see drop in peak hour show times. 

[Tinalera]

Due to life getting in the way, Im not going to be able to do Greater Toronto Area numbers today-sorry bout that

 

I can tell you though just giving a look at the seating, numerous theatres already having multiple sold out shows. With the whole 50 percent rule kicking in tomorrow, Cineplex putting out pretty much any seating they can right now to accommodate those who want to see it before restrictions kick in. Im going to be very interested to see the final numbers for Spidey just overall after the weekend. 

 

I know Canada numbers are often seen as a "side" to the US numbers, but its always interesting to see which films in Canada sometimes may do well compared to US counterparts. Spidey though seems to be following its US counterpart pretty consistent. 

 

So looks like future counts go back to the percentage system-this will be fun.....sigh

[katnisscinnaplex]

21 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Querying all theaters I am seeing below for today.

A - 11256(590 Theaters)

C - 8563(318 Theaters)

 

Few more will be added if plexes cancel shows for older movies and switch with NWH. But can you track shows by time. I want to see drop in peak hour show times. 

 

Interesting.  I'm not sure where the differences are, but I'm about to head out for the day.  Here's what I have:

 

A - 10,611 (590)

C - 8,786 (312)

R - 11,660 (446)

 

Time	Shows	%
<11:59am	4,877	8.84%
12:00-12:59	4,135	7.49%
1:00-1:59	3,738	6.77%
2:00-2:59	4,104	7.44%
3:00-3:59	5,041	9.14%
4:00-4:59	4,755	8.62%
5:00-5:59	3,600	6.52%
6:00-6:59	4,828	8.75%
7:00-7:59	5,588	10.13%
8:00-8:59	4,130	7.49%
9:00-9:59	4,550	8.25%
10:00-10:59	4,043	7.33%
11:00-11:59	1,188	2.15%
12am+	597	1.08%

 

The times are a little off from the total.  My export has a mix of times and text in one cell and I'm using formulas to convert the data.  The am/pm gets tough to parse so I usually stick to previews for the time break down.  

[XXR & Friends]

1 minute ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

A - 10,611 (590)

C - 8,786 (312)

R - 11,660 (446)

 

That's a massive increase for R vs yesterday. Overall market should be looking at a 30% increase in total shows.