The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, UserHN said:

Sometimes I get confused whenever someone says 'DP', especially when the abbreviation is being used in different threads in BOT. I don't know if someone is talking about Detective Pikachu or Dark Phoenix. Lol.

Or Deadpool.  It's why I personally refuse to use the DP initials for anything other than the Merc with a Mouth.

[FlashMaster659]

Dark Phoenix - Regal Edwards Ontario Palace IMAX & RPX (Thursday Night)

 

IMAX Fan Event

 

6:00 PM - 71/532

 

IMAX 2D

 

9:00 PM - 2/532

 

RPX 2D

 

6:30 PM - 1/744

9:30 PM - 0/744

 

RealD 3D

 

10:00 PM - 0/211

 

2D

 

7:00 PM - 3/211

 

Total

 

77/2974 (2.6%)

 

0.2841x as many seats sold as Godzilla: King of the Monsters 3 days before previews

1.8333x as many seats sold as Aladdin 3 days before previews

[Old Spice]

17 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Dark Phoenix - Regal Edwards Ontario Palace IMAX & RPX (Thursday Night)

 

IMAX Fan Event

 

6:00 PM - 71/532

 

IMAX 2D

 

9:00 PM - 2/532

 

RPX 2D

 

6:30 PM - 1/744

9:30 PM - 0/744

 

RealD 3D

 

10:00 PM - 0/211

 

2D

 

7:00 PM - 3/211

 

Total

 

77/2974 (2.6%)

 

0.2841x as many seats sold as Godzilla: King of the Monsters 3 days before previews

1.8333x as many seats sold as Aladdin 3 days before previews

That is mind boggling.

[TwoMisfits]

On 5/28/2019 at 8:41 PM, TwoMisfits said:

First local - Cinemark - is finally up...and the theme of feast or famine continues.  For once, they HAVE booked all the openers this month, so it's a pretty vicious set for the holdovers...but b/c they got all the openers, it's also tight for the openers...here's the list...

 

NEW

KOTM - 2 - 3 3d, 8 2d showings - both on biggest screens - it did NOT get more space than presales 

Ma - 1 - 5 showings - above average screen

Rocketman - 1.5 - 7 showings - above average screen and smallest screen - this is more than presales, and they obviously are finding any showings they can give it...but 1.5 isn't that huge, so enormous weekend numbers, this will not get (nor will it beat KOTM unless KOTM leaves a lot of seats open)

NGK - 1 - 4 showings - smallest screen

 

RETURNING

Aladdin - 2 - 12 showings - what's harsh is that not only did it lose 2 showings, but it lost both biggest screens and weirdly is put on the 2 smallest size screens - that's a big drop for weekend 2...and a sign of the market tightness...obviously, this theater thinks its Aladdin base was driven by the Disney fanatic that's now seen it, not the family foot traffic...we'll see if it's a good call Friday

Brightburn - 1 - 6 showings - it kept the full screen - must have been a good contract

JW3 - 1 - 5 showings - as expected, it lost .75 screens

Pika - 1 - 5 showings - as expected, it lost .5 screens

Endgame - 1 - 4 showings - as expected, it lost .75 screens

 

GONE

A Dog's Journey (not a surprise), India's Most Wanted, the other foreign film

 

Next week, with SLOP and Dark Phoenix, it's gonna be a painful drop - the foreign film will go and Brightburn will go, but if they want an extra screen (or another foreign film on more than the .5 screen I expect Rocketman to lose), Aladdin or KOTM will have to give it up, or one of the big May 3 may go or get a split...

 

PS - There is .5 screens left, so I expect a single showing or 2 for some foreign films to fill in...

 

 

 

So, it's a new week and a VERY early set for my 1st local (Cinemark).  And as I guessed last week, the new super is NOT kicking out the old super at my 1st tracked theater - I think theaters really doubt the draw of Dark Phoenix for Father's Day, so they are hedging their bets.  Also, they are doubting SLOP 2 for the summer kid draw, b/c they also kept Pika, Pika...so, while both movies had a pretty decently sized theater drop last week, I think it moderates this one...but here's the whole set to see...

 

NEW

SLOP 2 (2 - 10 showings - 2 3d, 8 2d - largest size and above average size)

Dark Phoenix (1.5 - 8 showings - 1 3d, 7 2d - largest size and above average size) - this is a VERY small set for a super and it only added 3 showings from its presale set - not an optimistic sign

Bahrat (1 - 4 showings - above average size) - this is actually a shock, b/c the foreign films tend to always get the smallest size - might be a tiny break out if you follow these films

 

RETURNING

Godzilla KOTM (1.25 - 6 - 1 3d, 5 2d - smallest screen) - as expected, this got torched - it's got about 80% less capacity per day...an enormous drop, and it's gonna probably show in the weekend if other small and mediums run the same way

Ma (1 - 6 - smallest screen) - also dropped to smallest size

Rocketman (1 - 5 - smallest screen) - not as bad as KOTM, but it's a victim of the tightness

Aladdin (1.5 - 9 showings - 2 3d, 7 2d) - it lost .5 screens - the big 3 holds from late April/early May have really kept this movie down at this theater - it just might have been too late as a release to be able to hold like they did...but at least it kept the bonus .5 screens

JW3 (1 - 5 showings) - matches last week

Endgame (1 - 4 showings) - matches last week

Pika (.75 - 4 showings) - loses the late show to KOTM, so it's an indication that it may be the loser Father's Day weekend...although we'll see how the openers open and the last week holdovers do, b/c there might be room for early/late splits like this week:).

 

GONE

NGK, Brightburn (the only booked "killer B", that got just the 2 weeks)

 

PS - It's a VERY light week for foreign films here, so I think that shows the power that Endgame, Pika, and JW3 have had as holdovers - the theater didn't want to pick which one to go yet, just as summer is starting to kick in...so it didn't...

Edited June 4, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[keysersoze123]

Fandango daily now has data for this week. As expected its bad for openers.

 

Dark Phoenix has sold around 14K tickets off which Thursday is almost 5500. Pets 2 has sold 6600 tickets off which thursday is just 1071. So XMen is very frontloaded while Pets 2 is backloaded but numbers are atrocious for both of them.

 

Pets 2 should get huge walk ins that should help beat XMen but both of them are staring at disappointing OW. it would be sad if both of them combined dont open to 100m considering Pets itself opened above that.

 

To compare TS4 has sold 10K tickets its Opening Sunday and another 1000 tickets across weekdays and Marathon/Fan Event tickets. Good news is its also accelerating big time considering Rolling 24 hour number went below 400 and its already at 828( + another 28 tickets for Fan event and marathon). Its looking good for 150m OW.

 

 

[Porthos]

53 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

0.2841x as many seats sold as Godzilla: King of the Monsters 3 days before previews

1.8333x as many seats sold as Aladdin 3 days before previews

[Menor the Destroyer]

As @keysersoze123 noted Akvalley daily page is updated for this week's openers. Ugly numbers all around :(. Godzilla was at 8978 preview sales at 12:00 PM update last Tuesday. Phoenix is at 5489 right now. 

[Cookson]

What’s even happening at the box office? Is there simply too much Endgame fatigue?

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, Menor said:

As @keysersoze123 noted Akvalley daily page is updated for this week's openers. Ugly numbers all around :(. Godzilla was at 8978 preview sales at 12:00 PM update last Tuesday. Phoenix is at 5489 right now. 

It should hit hopefully around 7K by that time. Still more than 20% down. Looking at 5m previews. I hope the ratio is closer as thursday approaches.

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, Cookson said:

What’s even happening at the box office? Is there simply too much Endgame fatigue?

I mean come June 21 we're going to have three mega hits within six weeks. This year is just ridiculously loaded with event movies and many blockbusters that aren't as hyped are being lost in the shuffle

Edited June 4, 2019 by Menor

[ThomasNicole]

6 minutes ago, Cookson said:

What’s even happening at the box office? Is there simply too much Endgame fatigue?

I mean, Aladdin pull big numbers.

 

The problem is the movies, not the market. TS4 is coming to solve this problem.

[keysersoze123]

6 minutes ago, Cookson said:

What’s even happening at the box office? Is there simply too much Endgame fatigue?

Aladdin did break out. we just have not seen really good movies from other studios. Wait till Once Upon releases. that's gonna be BIG. Hobbs and Shaw will be HUGE in OS markets.

[YM!]

17 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

It should hit hopefully around 7K by that time. Still more than 20% down. Looking at 5m previews. I hope the ratio is closer as thursday approaches.

I’m confused, it was on 3,500 when I checked. Which one did y’all use?

[UserHN]

14 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Aladdin did break out. we just have not seen really good movies from other studios. Wait till Once Upon releases. that's gonna be BIG. Hobbs and Shaw will be HUGE in OS markets.

That's why I always think Hobbs & Shaw might be another billionaire this year. Because of the popularity of the Furious franchise in the international markets. Let's see if China can give it another $300M+ once again.

Edited June 4, 2019 by UserHN

[xiazhi]

21 minutes ago, Cookson said:

What’s even happening at the box office? Is there simply too much Endgame fatigue?

Just bad movie fatigue

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

I’m confused, it was on 3,500 when I checked. Which one did y’all use?

They're talking about the daily tracker page that breaks down sales by date the ticket is purchased for, not the 24 hour rolling counter:

 

http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/fandango_daily.txt

[Porthos]

34 minutes ago, Cookson said:

What’s even happening at the box office? Is there simply too much Endgame fatigue?

 

27 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I mean, Aladdin pull big numbers.

 

The problem is the movies, not the market. TS4 is coming to solve this problem.

 

27 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Aladdin did break out. we just have not seen really good movies from other studios. Wait till Once Upon releases. that's gonna be BIG. Hobbs and Shaw will be HUGE in OS markets.

Wellll, Aladdin broke out relative to expectations.  We're still talking about a 90m holiday-inflated 3day OW.  And John Wick 3 also broke out again relative to expectations.  

 

But we haven't had a huge movie since EG, and I absolutely think fatigue is something of a factor. 

 

To put it another way, what excess money/attention wasn't claimed by EG, both Wick 3 and Aladdin sucked up.  And even then a few 50m OW in a row (or in the case of last week a near 50m) does take its toll slightly.  

 

Or to put it yet a third way, the ratta-tat-tat-tat string of EG-EG 2nd Wknd-Pika-Wick 3-Aladdin-KotM certainly isn't helping Dark Phoenix and MIB:I get a lot of mindshare out there.

Edited June 4, 2019 by Porthos

[UserHN]

15 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

Wellll, Aladdin broke out relative to expectations.  We're still talking about a 90m holiday-inflated 3day OW.  And John Wick 3 also broke out again relative to expectations.  

 

But we haven't had a huge movie since EG, and I absolutely think fatigue is something of a factor. 

 

To put it another way, what excess money/attention wasn't claimed by EG, both Wick 3 and Aladdin sucked up.  And even then a few 50m OW in a row (or in the case of last week a near 50m) does take its toll slightly.  

 

Or to put it yet a third way, the ratta-tat-tat-tat string of EG-EG 2nd Wknd-Pika-Wick 3-Aladdin-KotM certainly isn't helping Dark Phoenix and MIB:I get a lot of mindshare out there.

How do you define huge? Should the movie cross $1B? I consider Aladdin to be huge because it's heading for $280M+ dom and $700M+ worldwide.

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, UserHN said:

How do you define huge? Should the movie cross $1B? I consider Aladdin to be huge because it's heading for $280M+ dom and $700M+ worldwide.

I think Aladdin should have been bigger, at least domestically, I'll put it that way.  Prob should have opened to at least 125m or so on the 3day.

 

But I tend to think 125m+ on a three day is enough for huge, with an exception for films that are leggy, though I won't debate the point strongly.

 

Consider my point more that I think Disney left money on the table when it came to Aladdin more than anything else.

Edited June 4, 2019 by Porthos

[Joyous Legion]

51 minutes ago, Cookson said:

What’s even happening at the box office? Is there simply too much Endgame fatigue?

The summer slate of the medium-intensity movie goer:  

Endgame

Endgame

Aladdin

TS4

FFH

TLK    

 

Not enough money for other stuff.