The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Darth Lehnsherr]

SLOP seems a bit like Lego Movie where the novelty was cute the first time but people have no desire for it to be revisited again. Sing 2 might be in a bit of trouble (relatively speaking as all these films will be profitable) but Minions 2 should be fine with the Despicable Me franchise being of the biggest OS.

[Minnale101]

I mean it’s comparable to legos 2 hype wise but not really box office wise 

 

the uk and Australia the movie release earlier in those countries and it’s doing fine 

 

 

It’s headed for a decline but movie will definitely be profitable. First movie only had 74 million budget 

 

I doubt budget increase as much 

 

should do at the very least how to train you’re dragon 3 numbers 

 

 

Edited June 5, 2019 by Minnale101

[KP1025]

3 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Minions 2 should be fine with the Despicable Me franchise being of the biggest OS.

 

While I don't think this will happen to the Despicable Me franchise just yet, the Ice Age films showed that even formerly huge OS franchises can completely collapse once fatigue sets in.

 

Ice Age 3: $690 million OS

Ice Age 4: $716 million OS

Ice Age 5: $345 million OS

[Finnick]

These Illumination movies if it wasnt for Universal clever marketing, they will never get  that high. I wish this burn to hell and leave us just  with DWA. It is way better with its animation movies. I will take the worst DWA flick over the best Illumination flick. This is the most overratted brand (boxoffice wise) in cinema.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

5 minutes ago, Finnick said:

These Illumination movies if it wasnt for Universal clever marketing, they will never get  that high. I wish this burn to hell and leave us just  with DWA. It is way better with its animation movies. I will take the worst DWA flick over the best Illumination flick. This is the most overratted brand (boxoffice wise) in cinema.

I mean to give them credit people really enjoy those movies. They know how to be crowd pleasing that is also very wide appealing. They definitely could be way better IMO but atm they have no incentive to be.

[Porthos]

Toy Story 4 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-16 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	90	10880	12307	11.60%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                    68

 

Unadjusted Comps

2.9483x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu 16 days before release.

2.0893x as many tickets sold as Aladdin 16 days before release.

2.7390x as many tickets sold as King of the Monsters 16 days before release.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  Pika Pika had 29 days of pre-sales, Aladdin had 24, and King of the Monsters had 20 days of pre-sales while Toy Story 4 has 23 days of pre-sales.

 

T-16:

Pika         33 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/75 showings   |     8164/8648 seats left    |  5.60% sold]

Aladdin    47 tickets sold [0 sellouts/68 showings   |     9100/9783 seats left     |  6.98% sold]

KotM        51 tickets sold [0 sellouts/82 showings   |  10705/11226 seats left    |  4.64% sold]

 

Adjusted Comps

1.0684x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 16 days before release.      

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

PRE-SALES NOTE: Fallen Kingdom had 22 days of pre-sales while Toy Story 4 has 23 days of pre-sales.

 

T-16:

JW2             106 tickets sold [0 sellouts/97 showings |    8856/10113 seats left  | 12.43% sold]

TS4 (JW)        59 tickets sold [1 sellouts/90 showings |    9299/10642 seats left  | 12.62% sold]

TS4 (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom.

[Porthos]

On 6/3/2019 at 10:32 PM, Porthos said:

 

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-06-03 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	22.595%	14405	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
2	19.409%	12374	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019) [combined]
3	13.462%	8582	Rocketman
4	07.752%	4942	Ma (2019)
5	06.618%	4219	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
6	06.089%	3882	Dark Phoenix [combined]
7	04.899%	3123	Avengers Endgame (2019)
8	04.608%	2938	The Secret Life of Pets 2
9	03.288%	2096	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
10	02.530%	1613	Booksmart

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-06-04 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	21.868%	15404	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
2	17.815%	12549	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019) [combined]
3	12.047%	8486	Rocketman
4	09.066%	6386	Ma (2019)
5	08.738%	6155	Dark Phoenix [combined]
6	06.709%	4726	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
7	04.723%	3327	The Secret Life of Pets 2
8	04.397%	3097	Avengers Endgame (2019)
9	03.604%	2539	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
10	02.358%	1661	Booksmart

 

====

 

KotM Last Tue: 

 

On 5/28/2019 at 11:19 PM, Porthos said:

 

 

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-05-28 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	37.943%	25349	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
2	12.551%	8385	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
3       08.674% 5795    Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019) [combined] 
4	06.966%	4654	Avengers Endgame (2019) [combined]
5	05.430%	3628	Pokémon Detective Pikachu
6	04.661%	3114	Rocketman
7	04.438%	2965	Booksmart
8       04.396% 2937    Toy Story 4 [combined] 
9	04.326%	2890	Brightburn
10	01.394%	931	Ma (2019)

[Hokkaido MUTO]

Wow, that RT score for Dark Phoenix is real bad; low enough number to greatly turn off people. 

[Eric the Minion]

Fandango App

Monday

Tues

Wed

Thursday

A Wrinkle In Time

3,698

4,864

15,601

Deadpool 2

23,134

28,896

41,212

SW: Solo

13,688

15,855

28,533

Jurassic World 2

9,310

12,761

23,266

Antman & The Wasp

6,613

5,990

11,108

Hotel Transylvania 3

1,753

2,674

6,605

14,754

Christopher Robin

1,560

2,442

5,355

11,509

Venom

13,602

13,818

20,867

31,569

The Grinch

3,580

4,860

10,092

17,046

Fantastic Beasts

8,956

14,238

21,861

31,880

Spider-Verse

3,715

5,208

9,858

19,972

Aquaman

8,502

9,671

15,063

Glass

3,106

3,978

6,478

17,810

Lego Movie 2

2,552

4,130

8,601

13,320

How to Train Your Dragon 3

3,724

6,674

12,935

21,313

Dumbo

3,069

4,624

9,218

16,140

Pokemon Detective Pikachu

5,061

7,653

13,177

23,309

Aladdin

9,948

12,038

21,152

31,549

The Secret Life of Pets 2	2,967	3,245
Dark Phoenix	3,925	6,059

 

Pets 2

Tuesday

67% of Wrinkle in Time (22.1M)

42% of Pikachu (23M)

27% of Aladdin (24.7M 3-Day, 31.5M 4-Day)

49% of Dragon 3 (26.7M)

78% of Lego 2 (26.8M)

70% of Dumbo (32.3M)

133% of Christopher Robin (32.7M)

67% of Grinch (45.1M)

121% of Hotel 3 (53.5M)

 

Day 11-3

74% of Grinch (50M)

161% of Hotel 3 (70.9M)

 

Day 18-3

73% of Grinch (49.6M)

161% of Hotel 3 (71M)

 

 

I have no words.

 

Dark Phoenix

Tuesday

21% of Deadpool 2 (26.3M)

41% of Fantastic Beasts 2 (26.4M)

38% of Solo (32.3M 3-Day, 39.4M 4-Day)

44% of Venom (35.2M)

116% of Spider-Verse (41.4M)

62% of Aquaman (42.5M)

152% of Glass (61.4M 3-Day, 70.8M 4-Day)

47% of Fallen Kingdom (70.3M)

101% of Ant-Man 2 (76.7M)

 

Day 11-3

33% of Venom (26.5M)

 

This is good...kinda. It's still at very low numbers, but almost every comp did rise from yesterday's results. Unless Wednesday bombs hard, or reviews are awful, this won't be as big of a disaster as one would expect (y'know, if you consider above Fant4stic a good benchmark)

[Eric the Minion]

2 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Unless Wednesday bombs hard, or reviews are awful

So I didn't know Dark Phoenix reviews dropped until after the fact. And um...yikes.

[Joyous Legion]

4 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

or reviews are awful

😬

[Hokkaido MUTO]

1 minute ago, Thanos Legion said:

😬

Damn it, you beat me to it lol

[Porthos]

On 6/1/2019 at 1:33 AM, Porthos said:

Spoiler

 

So I decided after comments from @Darth Lehnsherr and @Charlie Jatinder to check Dark Phoenix again locally.  Maybe I messed up my count.  Maybe it's grown a bit over the last five days.

 

Sadly, not really.  At T-6 days, it now stands at 618 tickets sold region wide.  That's an increase of 161 tickets over five days, or 32 tickets per day.  That's not exactly ideal at this point.

 

I actually decided to be a bit more through this time, so I can give exact comps:

 

At T-6:

May Movies:

Pika Pika had   1,024 seats sold (3.44m - matinees, few PLFs) (down from 4.21m)

Aladdin had     1,261 seats sold (3.43m)                                 (down from 3.55m)

KotM had         1,086 seats sold (3.59m - matinees)               (down from 3.77m)

 

Other Comps:

FB2 had           2,449 seats sold (2.21m) (down from unadjusted comp of 2.35m)  [DP adj: 595 seats sold]

JW:FK had        2,086 seats sold (4.25m) (down from unadjusted comp of 4.35m) [DP adj: 580 seats sold]

Solo had          3,829 seats sold (2.14m) (up from unadjusted comp of 1.89m) [DP adj: 580 seats sold]

 

Recent CBMs (don't have AM&tW or Venom that far out - never checked Aquaman) :

EG at              19,692 seats sold (1.88m) (up from 1.47m)

CM at               4,925 seats sold (2.60m) (up from 2.32m)

DP2 at              3,564 seats sold (3.03m) (up from unadjusted comp of 3.02m) [DP adj: 580 seats sold]

IW at                9,009 seats sold (2.51m) (up from unadjusted comp of 2.26m) [DP adj: 580 seats sold]

 

 

(Put the old stuff in a spoiler box to save space)

 

At T-2, Dark Phoenix... has recovered slightly.  And I do mean slightly.

 

Now sits at 1167 tickets sold locally, up from 768 tickets sold on Sun Night.  That's 200 tickets on Monday and Tuesday on average.  That's not that great.  But it isn't terrible like it was pacing. 

 

As I said on Sunday, it'd be pretty hard for it not to raise in comps and raise it did:

 

At T-2:

May Movies:

Pika Pika had   1,785 seats sold (3.73m - matinees, few PLFs) (up from 3.44m)

Aladdin had     1,926 seats sold (4.24m)                                 (up from 3.43m)

KotM had         1,637 seats sold (4.49m - matinees)               (up from 3.59m)

 

Other Comps:

FB2 had           3,285 seats sold (3.18m) (up from 2.21m)  [DP adj: 1,147 seats sold]

JW:FK had        3,424 seats sold (4.88m) (up from 4.25m) [DP adj: 1,093 seats sold]

Solo had          4,501 seats sold (3.42m) (up from 2.14m) [DP adj: 1,093 seats sold]

 

Recent CBMs (never checked Aquaman) :

EG at              22,204 seats sold (3.15m) (up from 1.88m)

CM at               6,917 seats sold (3.49m) (up from 2.60m)

Venom at         2,258 seats sold (5.08m) (n/a) [DP adj: 1,147 seats sold]

AM&tW at         2,291 seats sold (5.49m) (n/a) [DP adj: 1,093 seats sold]

DP2 at              3,564 seats sold (3.99m) (up from 3.03m) [DP adj: 1,093 seats sold]

IW at              10,796 seats sold (3.94m) (up from 2.51m) [DP adj: 1,093 seats sold]

 

===

 

In fact, I might even say the comps are starting to converge a bit.  Now a fair piece of warning on AM&tW and Venom.  Those exploded locally on the last couple of days, and especially on the day-of.

 

But I'm now starting to think 4m+ in previews is possible.  It's certainly trending in the right direction for that at least.

 

On the other hand, these last two days will be crunch time, and it might very well still slip below 4.  As seen by the CM and EG comps.

 

5m plus?  That's much more unlikely, IMO.  It'd have to sell really well on that score.  But kinda feel comfortable with 4+ now. At least as a possibility.  And I certainly wasn't last week. 

 

EDIT::::
 

Just saw the current RT score.

 

          

 

Well....   

 

Okay, 4m might be in doubt, but gotta go where the numbers lead me.

 

...

 

Gonna be REALLLLLLY interesting to see the pre-sales the last 44 hours or so.

Edited June 5, 2019 by Porthos

[Joyous Legion]

Just now, Hokkaido MUTO said:

Damn it, you beat me to it lol

Well, CoolEric beat me to it

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

So I didn't know Dark Phoenix reviews dropped until after the fact. And um...yikes.

 

5 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

😬

Maybe I should have waited until I said I was sorta comfortable with 4m+ in previews.

 

Well, just have to wait and find out, I suppose.

 

EDIT:::

 

*checks RT page*

 

Holy fuck.  Been a while since I saw a big budget film at THAT range.

 

Ummm.

 

Yeah.  Gonna have to wait and see I suppose. 

Edited June 5, 2019 by Porthos

[Hokkaido MUTO]

11 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Pets 2

Tuesday

67% of Wrinkle in Time (22.1M)

42% of Pikachu (23M)

27% of Aladdin (24.7M 3-Day, 31.5M 4-Day)

49% of Dragon 3 (26.7M)

78% of Lego 2 (26.8M)

70% of Dumbo (32.3M)

133% of Christopher Robin (32.7M)

67% of Grinch (45.1M)

121% of Hotel 3 (53.5M)

 

Day 11-3

74% of Grinch (50M)

161% of Hotel 3 (70.9M)

 

Day 18-3

73% of Grinch (49.6M)

161% of Hotel 3 (71M)

 

 

I have no words.

 

 

So SLOP 2 OW at 60-70 million remotely feasible? 

Edited June 5, 2019 by Hokkaido MUTO

[Eric the Minion]

1 minute ago, Thanos Legion said:

Well, CoolEric beat me to it

You're too slow

 

[UserHN]

Yikes at that RT score. Is that the worst for a SH movie this decade?

[Eric the Minion]

2 minutes ago, UserHN said:

Yikes at that RT score. Is that the worst for a SH movie this decade?

How can you forget about this?

 

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/fantastic_four_2015

[Darth Lehnsherr]

2 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

How can you forget about this?

 

https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/fantastic_four_2015

Written by Kinberg too