The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

One consideration about TS4 vs I2 is that I2 had around 13 more days of pre-sales than TS4.  This does mean that if TS4 wants to sell more than I2 it eventually has to do better on the day-to-day comparisons, and not by a small margin.  But it still might be something to think about this far out.

 

As for right now, and it's still early given that the rolling counter reset overnight, but TS4 is solidly in 8th place right now on the Fandango tracker.  That's pretty good IMO, though it does say something about the level of competition as well.

 

[XXR & Friends]

22 minutes ago, TMP said:

CM's pre-sales were a different beast. Spidey's pre-sales being so far in advance definitely decreases the rush factor; I expect pre-sales to spike up closer to release. Though some of the $500m dom total predictions seem too high to me... maybe like $415m dom total.

 

Definitely agree that some of the predictions for this are too high. My prediction is 15-25% over SMH (roughly $385m-$415m).

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, CoolEric258 said:

I'd say around 60% chance of that happening, maybe even higher. I say this largely because of @Porthos than my own data. He's generally had good luck when it comes to predicting previews. His data indicates a preview # somewhere around 14-16 atm. I'm predicting somewhere around 10.5x as an IM, which would give about 147M-168M. So it's still very much possible to hit 150M+, but I don't see it reaching, say BatB.

Speaking as somebody from the "Pixar generation", I can tell you people around my age were dying to see an Incredibles 2, and were beyond ecstatic to know it was coming out. That older audience and that frenzy and demand isn't really as strong as it is for Toy Story, at least when it comes to presales and buying tickets at a certain time. But of course, even if it hits 150M in the end, I doubt Disney is crying over it being #NotARecord

Oh yes, I experienced the same thing with Incredibles 2 and my friend group. That's why I was so surprised that Toy Story 4 had such a strong day 1 compared to I2, but it has come back down to about where I expected. And yeah @Porthos the 8th place on Fandango is definitely very good, points to a sure 100+ opening but I2 was a different beast entirely, it was at 4th at the same point in time at least going by this thread page 600.

 

Edited June 10, 2019 by Menor

[Porthos]

9 hours ago, john2000 said:

good ?

(re FFH midnights)

 

So I finally sat down and pulled out the revision history of the only comp I personally have that is even remotely likely to be of interest, the Tuesday Limited Engagements for Crimes of Grindelwald.  

 

This really only goes so far for many reasons, but it might be the best I have.

 

As of last night Far From Home was at 76.92% of the "Tuesday Sneaks" for FB2. So roughly speaking 1.4m for pure midnights for Far From Home as a comp.

 

Eyeballing things that looks... kinda right?  FFH has been on sale for far longer though as at this point FB2 had only been on sale for about nine days or so, while FFH has been on sale for well over a month.

 

If I use a ludicrous comp of Captain Marvel (the only other one I have remotely around the same length of pre-sales), I get around 2.15m for pure midnights.  That... also sounds kinda right as an upper bound?

 

Main problem is that this isn't acting like a 'traditional' pre-sale with a frontloading rush when it comes to the midnights, so I really don't know how it will act once it gets closer to release.  But right now 1.5m to 2m in midnights sounds like a decent guess.

 

And guess is all it is.  We'll see if I can refine it, or set a different range closer to release. 

Edited June 10, 2019 by Porthos

[john2000]

9 minutes ago, Porthos said:

(re FFH midnights)

 

So I finally sat down and pulled out the revision history of the only comp I personally have that is even remotely likely to be of interest, the Tuesday Limited Engagements for Crimes of Grindelwald.  

 

This really only goes so far for many reasons, but it might be the best I have.

 

As of last night Far From Home was at 76.92% of the "Tuesday Sneaks" for FB2. So roughly speaking 1.4m for pure midnights for Far From Home as a comp.

 

Eyeballing things that looks... kinda right?  FFH has been on sale for far longer though as at this point FB2 had only been on sale for about nine days or so, while FFH has been on sale for well over a month.

 

If I use a ludicrous comp of Captain Marvel (the only other one I have remotely around the same length of pre-sales), I get around 2.15m for pure midnights.  That... also sounds kinda right as an upper bound?

 

Main problem is that this isn't acting like a 'traditional' pre-sale with a frontloading rush when it comes to the midnights, so I really don't know how it will act once it gets closer to release.  But right now 1.5m to 2m in midnights sounds like a decent guess.

 

And guess is all it is.  We'll see if I can refine it, or set a different range closer to release. 

so good ? based from this ?

[Porthos]

12 minutes ago, john2000 said:

so good ? based from this ?

It's pure midnights in an era accustomed to 6pm/7pm Thr previews.  No clue, sorry.   @TalismanRing is more of an expert on pure midnights historically than I am, especially for what the showtimes were like.

 

Eyeballing the preview chart from HSX and not counting the showings that obviously had midnight-6am showings... Pretty decent? I guess?  Like I said, I not really an expert on what to use as a comp from back then.

[Menor the Destroyer]

24 minutes ago, Porthos said:

It's pure midnights in an era accustomed to 6pm/7pm Thr previews.  No clue, sorry.   @TalismanRing is more of an expert on pure midnights historically than I am, especially for what the showtimes were like.

 

Eyeballing the preview chart from HSX and not counting the showings that obviously had midnight-6am showings... Pretty decent? I guess?  Like I said, I not really an expert on what to use as a comp from back then.

Amazing Spider Man did 850,000 in midnights according to BOM, and had a 138 million 6-day opening. So it seems to be ok, but in 2012 previews/early showings weren't as much of a thing as they are now. Edit: But the chart that you posted says 7.5 million in midnights which would make 1.5-2 look disastrous for FFH. Idk because I wasn't following BO when that one was released. Edit 2: So 7.5 was apparently the number, but I assume that was from midnight to 6 am. But where is the 850k from then? Was there a limited release/sneak preview on Monday?

Edited June 10, 2019 by Menor

[TMP]

12 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

MIB

Day 11-5

41% of Dark Phoenix (13.5M)

28% of Shazam! (15M)

32% of Dragon 3 (17.8M)

43% of Dumbo (19.6M)

61% of Pets 2 (28.9M)

 

Day 16-5

48% of Dark Phoenix (15.9M)

35% of Shazam! (18.8M)

36% of Dragon 3 (20M)

48% of Dumbo (22M)

79% of Pets 2 (37.5M)

 

Is it foolish to say that I don't trust these comps and am optimistic about this movie's actual chances? Even with the lack of buzz or marketing,  I just feel like this can't open that low...can it?

 

I've been on the sub-$20m OW train for a while, looks like it'll be close. 

[Eric the Minion]

18 minutes ago, Menor said:

Amazing Spider Man did 850,000 in midnights according to BOM, and had a 138 million 6-day opening. So it seems to be ok, but in 2012 previews/early showings weren't as much of a thing as they are now. Edit: But the chart that you posted says 7.5 million in midnights which would make 1.5-2 look disastrous for FFH. Idk because I wasn't following BO when that one was released.

I believe that 850K comes from Monday previews that were Canada exclusive. I don't know why it was just Canada, I guess Sony wanted to give them a bone? The 7.5M is just midnight previews alone.

[Porthos]

I'll keep saying this.  I think comparing a midnight release in an era that is accustomed to 6pm/7pm previews (or earlier!) is a mistake.  That being said, there were plenty of midnights in the 1m to 3m range, FWIW.  I just think flinging around the word 'disastrous' is... Well, I simply don't agree.

 

Especially since we don't know how many showtimes there were for that Amazing Spider-Man comp (i.e how deep into the night did they play).

[TMP]

FFH seems a lot more walk-up friendly too. Looks like a palette cleanser after Endgame as opposed to a main & important event like Captain Marvel was built up to be.

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I'll keep saying this.  I think comparing a midnight release in an era that is accustomed to 6pm/7pm previews (or earlier!) is a mistake.  That being said, there were plenty of midnights in the 1m to 3m range, FWIW.  I just think flinging around the word 'disastrous' is... Well, I simply don't agree.

 

Especially since we don't know how many showtimes there were for that Amazing Spider-Man comp (i.e how deep into the night did they play).

Yeah, I probably shouldn't have used "disastrous". Tbh it's kinda fun not knowing how this is going to play. Midnight previews aren't a tradition anymore really, so who knows how it'll go?

[john2000]

6 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I'll keep saying this.  I think comparing a midnight release in an era that is accustomed to 6pm/7pm previews (or earlier!) is a mistake.  That being said, there were plenty of midnights in the 1m to 3m range, FWIW.  I just think flinging around the word 'disastrous' is... Well, I simply don't agree.

 

Especially since we don't know how many showtimes there were for that Amazing Spider-Man comp (i.e how deep into the night did they play).

i see, in any case, when you will be able to have a better idea ?

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 minutes ago, TMP said:

FFH seems a lot more walk-up friendly too. Looks like a palette cleanser after Endgame as opposed to a main & important event like Captain Marvel was built up to be.

 

Idk about that though. It's not like AMATW which was marketed as just a fun comedy standalone adventure. It's being sold as a continuation of Endgame and the second trailer makes significant references to the events of Endgame.

[Eric the Minion]

Should also mention these Monday midnights seem incredibly rare. I don't know what it's like for everyone else, but as of right now, there's only one theater near me doing these Monday midnights. Of course it's not finalized, but it's somewhat telling, especially since stuff like Toy Story and Annabelle already have Thurs/Tue previews up in a good majority of theaters around me.

[Porthos]

15 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I'll keep saying this.  I think comparing a midnight release in an era that is accustomed to 6pm/7pm previews (or earlier!) is a mistake.  That being said, there were plenty of midnights in the 1m to 3m range, FWIW.  I just think flinging around the word 'disastrous' is... Well, I simply don't agree.

 

Especially since we don't know how many showtimes there were for that Amazing Spider-Man comp (i.e how deep into the night did they play).

I don't mean to harp on this (okay... maybe a little ), but I would like to remind one and all that there are in fact only 14 showings locally.  Six theaters are having midnights, out of twenty plus I normally check.  At the moment there simply isn't the showtimes around to boost it up into the 7m range.

 

Of course the demand isn't there either.  Not yet at any rate.

 

But even if FFH hits around a 75% sold rate at final bell and no showings get added, we'd still be looking at around 2.25m to 3.9m, depending on which comp system I have is more accurate.

 

Now maybe more showings get added as we get closer to release.  Maybe more theaters decide to have midnights.  But right now we really should treat it as its own mostly unique thing.  Unless the floodgates open at some point, of course.

 

EDITED:::  @CoolEric258 great minds think alike. 👍

Edited June 10, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

9 minutes ago, john2000 said:

i see, in any case, when you will be able to have a better idea ?

July 2nd?

 

Only kinda joking.

Edited June 10, 2019 by Porthos

[john2000]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

July 2nd?

 

Only kinda joking.

 , also there is a holiday that can help too 

[Menor the Destroyer]

11 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I don't mean to harp on this (okay... maybe a little ), but I would like to remind one and all that there are in fact only 14 showings locally.  Six theaters are having midnights, out of twenty plus I normally check.  At the moment there simply isn't the showtimes around to boost it up into the 7m range.

 

Of course the demand isn't there either.  Not yet at any rate.

 

But even if FFH hits around a 75% sold rate at final bell and no showings get added, we'd still be looking at around 2.25m to 3.9m, depending on which comp system I have is more accurate.

 

Now maybe more showings get added as we get closer to release.  Maybe more theaters decide to have midnights.  But right now we really should treat it as its own mostly unique thing.  Unless the floodgates open at some point, of course.

 

EDITED:::  @CoolEric258 great minds think alike. 👍

Yeah that's true. I've checked around a few theaters and many of them only have one or two if any at all.

[narniadis]

Yeah, as people track FFH it also helps to remember that this whole thing is unusual for theaters now, especially on a monday night / tuesday midnight which is not a normal opening style except for the Christmas holidays when the calendar fits. There are many issues here overall for the schedule that are similar to 2012 when Amazing1 opened also which had many expecting a higher opening and instead it was kind of just spread out more (and of course on the low end.) 

Appreciate all the tracking being done and look forward to seeing how it goes but I am also afraid that many will be unhappy with the numbers everywhere not being high enough and it will sadly start here with the previews.