The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

10 minutes ago, Menor said:

Seems to be a nationwide thing. Only 404 seats available for 3D showings (out of 79133 total seats available). Meanwhile TLK has 67k out of 402k. And FSS only has 186 tickets available each day for 3D showings!!

As I said last night a bunch of Regal 3D showings got converted to 2D as well.   Only one showing left at the moment in the entire region.

 

Makes me wonder if the 3D version got cancelled at the last second and maybe some theaters haven't adjusted their showing listings yet.

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

As I said last night a bunch of Regal 3D showings got converted to 2D as well.   Only one showing left at the moment in the entire region.

 

Makes me wonder if the 3D version got cancelled at the last second and maybe some theaters haven't adjusted their showing listings yet.

Must be, although why that would happen I don't know.

[Eric the IF]

Crawl Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 Days and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	26	87	3,540	2.46%

 

Total Showings Added: 4

Total Tickets Sold Today: 32

 

Again, don't have any comps to go off of, but that seems like an okay increase at first glance? At the very least, it had a much better jump compared to Stuber. Guess those early Twitter reactions helped?

[Eric the IF]

Stuber Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 Days and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	26	75	3,174	2.36%

 

Total Showings Added: 2

Total Seats Added: 6

 

Again, I don't have anything to work with, but 6 tickets after one day doesn't seem very good. Don't want to say doom and gloom just yet, but this is looking to open pretty soft. Mixed reviews won't help it either.

[Eric the IF]

The Lion King Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 Days and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	102	2,201	18,457	11.93%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 166

 

So it did sell less than yesterday, but 166 is still very good. Only about a 9% drop from the tickets sold minus the showtime I might have neglected. Again, can't do any comps, but it is still selling a healthy amount I think.

[Eric the IF]

Hobbs & Shaw Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-23 Days and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	23	56	4,812	1.39%

 

Total Showings Removed: 3

Total Seats Removed: 11

 

@Porthos A couple more showtimes got removed from the schedule. And tbh, I wouldn't be surprsied if a couple more got taken down, as you still have showtimes that are "up", but can't be accessed. What is Universal doing lmao

[Porthos]

12 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

What is Universal doing lmao

Only thing I can really think of is that the 3D 'print'/conversion came back so bad that it couldn't be delivered to theaters. IF it is 3D showings getting yanked on your end.

 

I can't recall anything like that happening though.

 

Only other thing that comes to mind, again outside of a massive multi-MTC spanning glitch, is that 3D was never supposed to happen in the first place and word has just reached theaters.  Or 3D was going into other markets, but not the domestic?

 

Otherwise I got nothin'.

 

Like you say.  What the ef are you doin', Universal?

 

===

 

Mind I have seen preview shows get cancelled before, but that was usually because of a chain over-booking and far overestimating demand.  But I ain't seen nothing like this before.

Edited July 10, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

Man, what a clusterfuck.  

Remember how I said one theater first (accidentally I presume) switched a showing from 2D to 3D last night and then cancelled it today?  Well they put that showing back on the schedule at some point today, along with two other new showings.

 

HOWEVER, looks like they put it in a different auditorium and just assigned all the sold tickets along one row in the middle of the theater. 

 

Now it IS a larger auditorium, so that's... Good, I suppose.  But I have to admit I think I'd be a bit irked if I didn't get the assigned seating I chose when I originally bought my ticket.

 

Kinda curious now to see how it all unfolds in the coming days.

Edited July 10, 2019 by Porthos

[Eric the IF]

9 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Only thing I can really think of is that the 3D 'print'/conversion came back so bad that it couldn't be delivered to theaters. IF it is 3D showings getting yanked on your end.

 

I can't recall anything like that happening though.

 

Only other thing that comes to mind, again outside of a massive multi-MTC spanning glitch, is that 3D was never supposed to happen in the first place and word has just reached theaters.  Or 3D was going into other markets, but not the domestic?

 

Otherwise I got nothin'.

 

Like you say.  What the ef are you doin', Universal?

 

===

 

Mind I have seen preview shows get cancelled before, but that was usually because of a chain over-booking and far overestimating demand.  But I ain't seen nothing like this before.

Yeah, it's all been 3D shows. The forum likes to blame Disney for everything wrong in the world, so I'm going to assume Disney is forcing theaters to give Lion King all the 3D shows, and that's the only argument I'll accept...I don't make the rules here.

[Porthos]

The Lion King Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	209	18320	21695	3375	15.56%

 

Total Showings Added Today:       18 (3 at non-reserved seating showings)

Total Seats Added Today:          1022

Total Seats Sold Today:               279

 

Unadjusted Comps

4.5918x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu 9 days before release.

3.2991x as many tickets sold as Aladdin 9 days before release.

3.9941x as many tickets sold as King of the Monsters 9 days before release.

1.8067x as many tickets sold as Toy Story 4 9 days before release.

 

T-9:

Pika        76 seats sold [0 sellouts/64 shows |   6617/7352 seats    |   735 seats sold | 10.00% sold]

Aladdin   78 seats sold [0 sellouts/74 shows |  9695/10718 seats  | 1023 seats sold |   9.54% sold]

KotM      34 seats sold [0 sellouts/90 shows | 11278/12123 seats  |   845 seats sold |   6.97% sold]

TS4        84 seats sold [1 sellout/90 shows   | 10441/12309 seats  | 1868 seats sold | 15.18% sold]

 

Adjusted Comps

1.7454x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 9 days before release.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

T-9:

JW2         109 seats sold  [0 sellouts/111 shows |   9488/11263 seats | 1775 seats sold | 15.76% sold]

TLK (JW)  257 seats sold  [0 sellouts/209 shows | 16049/19147 seats | 3098 seats sold | 16.18% sold]

TLK (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom.

[Eric the IF]

Using @Porthos multiples

 

Pikachu: 26.2

Aladdin: 23.1

Godzilla: 25.2

TS4: 21.7

FK: 26.7

 

Yeah I know it's just one market, and no comp is perfect, blah blah blah, but...that seems pretty alright.

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Using @Porthos multiples

 

Pikachu: 26.2

Aladdin: 23.1

Godzilla: 25.2

TS4: 21.7

FK: 26.7

 

Yeah I know it's just one market, and no comp is perfect, blah blah blah, but...that seems pretty alright.

Pika Pika WILL come down at final, FWIW, as the number of tickets locally were under Aladdin at final bell.

 

Becoming increasingly skeptical of using JW2 as a comp as more days go by.

 

(and, watch now that I said that, it'll be the 'good' comp )

Edited July 10, 2019 by Porthos

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Using @Porthos multiples

 

Pikachu: 26.2

Aladdin: 23.1

Godzilla: 25.2

TS4: 21.7

FK: 26.7

 

Yeah I know it's just one market, and no comp is perfect, blah blah blah, but...that seems pretty alright.

All thing considered, 20m+ looks likely which is exactly what it needs. 

 

Buzz is very strong and soundtrack is amazing. 

[Porthos]

In case peeps are curious, still can't comp TLK against CBMs even nine days out.

 

.7704x Captain Marvel   (15.95)

.1774x Endgame            (10.64)

.8766x Solo (adj)            (12.36)

.3788x Infinity War (adj) (14.77)

 

Only one that really works is:

1.0114x Deadpool 2 (adj)  (18.81)

 

And that's on the low side it would appear.

 

Still is above prior numbers though:

 

On 7/6/2019 at 10:52 PM, Porthos said:

.6725x the amount of tickets sold as Captain Marvel 12 days before release. (13.92)

.1456x the amount of tickets sold as Endgame 12 days before release.  (8.74)

.3182x the amount of tickets sold as Infinity War on an adjusted basis 12 days before release.  (12.4)

 

.9123x the amount of tickets sold as Deadpool 2 on an adjusted basis 12 days before release. (16.97)

This helps show, I think, the difference in pre-sale patterns of family style movies and CBMs/SW movies.

[XXR vs XXR]

3 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

Using @Porthos multiples

 

Pikachu: 26.2

Aladdin: 23.1

Godzilla: 25.2

TS4: 21.7

FK: 26.7

 

Yeah I know it's just one market, and no comp is perfect, blah blah blah, but...that seems pretty alright.

 

Aladdin and TS4 are the main comps I’m looking at, nationally. 

 

I’m not sure that Aladdin will work for me locally because it underperformed relative to its national gross (fewer Thursday tickets sold than Pikachu) but since it’s a kindred remake of a Disney Renaissance film, it feels the most appropriate. 

[FlashMaster659]

On 7/9/2019 at 6:07 AM, FlashMaster659 said:

 

The Lion King – AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 141/167

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 166/203

9:00 PM - 157/203

12:00 AM - 60/203

 

3D Dine-In

 

6:00 PM - 23/78

6:30 PM - 14/63

7:00 PM - 15/78

8:45 PM - 16/60

9:15 PM - 7/78

9:45 PM - 6/63

10:15 PM - 4/78

 

RealD 3D

 

6:15 PM - 4/55

6:45 PM - 0/44

7:30 PM - 2/167

8:00 PM - 4/114

8:30 PM - 0/114

9:00 PM - 2/79

9:30 PM - 0/55

10:00 PM - 0/44

10:30 PM - 3/167

11:15 PM - 0/114

11:45 PM - 0/114

 

2D Dine-In

 

7:30 PM - 37/63

8:00 PM - 37/61

8:30 PM - 42/63

10:45 PM - 25/63

11:15 PM - 28/61

11:45 PM - 11/63

 

2D

 

6:00 PM - 20/44

6:15 PM - 15/55

6:30 PM - 57/217

6:45 PM - 0/48

7:00 PM - 32/79

7:15 PM - 21/44

7:45 PM - 17/44

8:00 PM - 20/45

8:15 PM - 23/167

8:30 PM - 9/45

8:45 PM - 7/44

9:00 PM - 9/49

9:15 PM - 1/44

9:30 PM - 2/55

9:45 PM - 3/217

10:00 PM - 7/48

10:15 PM - 2/79

10:30 PM - 0/44

11:00 PM - 0/44

11:15 PM - 0/45

11:30 PM - 7/167

11:45 PM - 0/45

 

Total

 

1056(+38)/4384 (24.1%)

 

1.4005x as many seats sold as Toy Story 4 nine days before previews.

 

The Lion King – AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 141/167

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 169/203

9:00 PM - 159/203

12:00 AM - 64/203

 

3D Dine-In

 

6:00 PM - 25/78

6:30 PM - 19/63

7:00 PM - 15/78

8:45 PM - 18/60

9:15 PM - 7/78

9:45 PM - 6/63

10:15 PM - 4/78

 

RealD 3D

 

6:15 PM - 4/55

6:45 PM - 0/44

7:30 PM - 2/167

8:00 PM - 4/114

8:30 PM - 0/114

9:00 PM - 2/79

9:30 PM - 0/55

10:00 PM - 0/44

10:30 PM - 3/167

11:15 PM - 0/114

11:45 PM - 0/114

 

2D Dine-In

 

7:30 PM - 37/63

8:00 PM - 37/61

8:30 PM - 42/63

10:45 PM - 25/63

11:15 PM - 28/61

11:45 PM - 11/63

 

2D

 

6:00 PM - 20/44

6:15 PM - 28/55

6:30 PM - 59/217

6:45 PM (1) NEW - 0/44

6:45 PM (2) - 0/48

7:00 PM - 36/79

7:15 PM - 21/44

7:45 PM - 17/44

8:00 PM - 20/45

8:15 PM - 29/167

8:30 PM (1) - 9/45

8:30 PM (2) NEW - 0/114

8:45 PM - 11/44

9:00 PM - 9/49

9:15 PM - 3/44

9:30 PM (1) - 8/55

9:30 PM (2) NEW - 0/55

9:45 PM - 7/217

10:00 PM (1) NEW - 0/44

10:00 PM (2) - 7/48

10:15 PM - 2/79

10:30 PM - 2/44

11:00 PM - 0/44

11:15 PM (1) - 0/45

11:15 PM (2) NEW - 0/114

11:30 PM - 16/167

11:45 PM (1) - 0/45

11:45 PM (2) NEW - 0/114

 

Total

 

1126(+70)/4384 (25.7%)

[Menor the Destroyer]

Crawl Friday:

Theaters: 220

Showings: 1541

Tickets Sold: 1884

Tickets Available: 143028

Estimated ATP: 10.03

Total Estimated Sales: 18900

Estimated Nationwide Sales: $170k

 

Stuber Friday:

Theaters: 216

Showings: 1272

Tickets Sold: 1222

Tickets Available: 132189

Estimated ATP: 10.03

Total Estimated Sales: 12257

Estimated Nationwide Sales: $115k

 

Crawl seems to be outperforming Stuber, interesting as their preview sales yesterday were basically identical.

[el sid]

Stuber, sold tickets for the previews on Thursday and for Friday,
counted on Wednesday 11am EST:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 13 (total tickets sold for Thursday) / 26 (total tickets sold for Friday, 6 showtimes)
Boston (AMC Assembly Row 12): 30 / 45 (5 showtimes)
Boston (Boston Common): 14 / 13 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 21 / 16 (5 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): no showtimes so far
Austin (no showtimes at AMC Lakeline 9 → Barton Creek Square 14): 27 / 17 (5 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Center Point 11): 10 / 9 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 84 / 99 (5 showtimes)
LA (AMC Bay Street): 47 / 21 (5 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 66 / 39 (5 showtimes)
Tickets sold in 9 theaters till Wednesday for Thursday: 312/ for Friday: 285
 

Crawl, sold tickets for the previews on Thursday and for Friday, counted on Wednesday 11am EST:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 17 (total tickets sold for Thursday) / 18 (total tickets sold for Friday, 7 showtimes)
Boston (AMC Assembly Row 12): 19 / 25 (5 showtimes)
Boston (Boston Common): 13 / 5 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 17 / 11 (10 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 13 / 1 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 9 / 3 (5 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Center Point 11): 11 / 8 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 66 / 61 (5 showtimes)
LA (AMC Bay Street): 34 / 9 (5 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 62 / 68 (6 showtimes)
Tickets sold in 10 theaters till Wednesday for Thursday: 261/ for Friday: 209

So Stuber slightly leads and some of the Thursday shows look already pretty crowded but its Friday is still improvable.
Crawl is in front of Midsommar which had 42 sold tickets for Friday at the same time (but here I only counted 6 theaters). But also if I compare the six identical theaters Crawl sold 2.5x as many tickets as Midsommar.
Hard to say without real comps but I guess so far it doesn't look bad for both new movies.

Edited July 10, 2019 by el sid

[Inceptionzq]

On 7/9/2019 at 3:26 PM, Inceptionzq said:

The Lion King Thursday Night Showings Denver Metro

 

AMC Westminster Promenade 24:

IMAX: 

7 PM – 39/411(+4)

10 PM – 11/411

 

Real D 3D:

6:30 PM – 1/48(+1)

7:10 PM – 5/48

9:25 PM – 0/48

10:05 PM – 0/48

 

Prime 3D:

7:30 PM – 65/187(+1)

10:30 PM – 3/187

 

Dolby:

6 PM- 142/217(+4)

9 PM – 66/217(+1)

11:50 PM – 6/217(+1)

 

2D: 

6 PM – 42/158

6 PM – 4/56

6:10 PM – 5/48

6:20 PM – 8/44(+4)

6:40 PM – 2/94(+2)

6:50 PM – 11/92

7:20 PM – 15/44(+4)

7:40 PM – 4/56(+2)

7:50 PM – 0/44

8 PM – 7/40(+2)

8:10 PM – 2/36

8:20 PM – 5/48

8:30 PM – 4/94

8:40 PM – 0/92

8:50 PM – 0/44

9:05 PM – 4/158

9:10 PM – 0/56

9:15 PM – 0/48

9:20 PM – 0/44

9:30 PM – 3/94

9:45 PM – 0/92

10:15 PM – 0/44

10:40 PM – 2/56

10:50 PM – 0/44

11 PM – 0/40

11:10 PM – 0/36

11:20 PM – 0/48

11:30 PM – 0/94

11:40 PM – 0/92

11:50 PM – 0/44

11:55 PM – 0/56

12:00 AM – 1/158

 

AMC Highlands Ranch 24:

IMAX: 

7 PM – 71/384(+4)

10 PM – 9/384(+3)

 

Real D 3D:

6:30 PM – 7/85(+2)

7:30 PM – 0/52

9:30 PM – 0/85

10:30 PM – 0/52

 

Dolby: 

6 PM – 98/210(+10)

9 PM – 57/210(+5)

 

2D:

6 PM – 35/159

6:10 PM – 0/52

6:15 PM – 2/52(+2)

6:20 PM – 0/41

6:40 PM – 21/85

6:50 PM – 4/39

7:10 PM – 7/45

7:15 PM – 4/85

7:20 PM – 0/45

7:40 PM – 0/52

7:50 PM – 0/39

8 PM – 8/159

8:10 PM – 0/45

8:20 PM – 0/41

8:30 PM – 14/85

9:10 PM – 0/52

9:15 PM – 2/52

9:20 PM – 0/41

9:30 PM – 0/159

9:40 PM – 0/85

9:50 PM – 0/39

10:10 PM – 0/45

10:15 PM – 0/85

10:20 PM – 0/45

10:40 PM – 0/52

10:50 PM – 0/39

11 PM – 2/159

Total from 7 theaters: 1760(+106)/18042(-163) (9.8%)

One showing was taken off, but it had only sold 5 tickets. So, 111 tickets were sold.

 

 

The Lion King Thursday Night Showings Denver Metro

AMC Westminster Promenade 24:

IMAX:

7 PM – 43/411(+4)

10 PM – 11/411

 

Real D 3D:

6:30 PM – 1/48

7:10 PM – 5/48

9:25 PM – 0/48

10:05 PM – 0/48

 

Prime 3D:

7:30 PM – 65/187

10:30 PM – 5/187(+2)

 

Dolby:

6 PM- 145/217(+3)

9 PM – 69/217(+3)

11:50 PM – 6/217

 

2D:

6 PM – 46/158(+4)

6 PM – 4/56

6:10 PM – 5/48

6:20 PM – 8/44

6:40 PM – 2/94

6:50 PM – 15/92(+4)

7:20 PM – 15/44

7:40 PM – 4/56

7:50 PM – 0/44

8 PM – 7/40

8:10 PM – 2/36

8:20 PM – 5/48

8:30 PM – 4/94

8:40 PM – 0/92

8:50 PM – 0/44

9:05 PM – 4/158

9:10 PM – 0/56

9:15 PM – 0/48

9:20 PM – 0/44

9:30 PM – 3/94

9:45 PM – 0/92

10:15 PM – 0/44

10:40 PM – 3/56(+1)

10:50 PM – 0/44

11 PM – 0/40

11:10 PM – 0/36

11:20 PM – 0/48

11:30 PM – 0/94

11:40 PM – 0/92

11:50 PM – 0/44

11:55 PM – 0/56

12:00 AM – 1/158

 

AMC Highlands Ranch 24:

IMAX:

7 PM – 82/384(+11)

10 PM – 9/384

 

Real D 3D:

6:30 PM – 11/85(+4)

7:30 PM – 0/52

9:30 PM – 0/85

10:30 PM – 0/52

 

Dolby:

6 PM – 99/210(+1)

9 PM – 61/210(+4)

 

2D:

6 PM – 42/159(+7)

6:10 PM – 0/52

6:15 PM – 2/52

6:20 PM – 0/41

6:40 PM – 21/85

6:50 PM – 4/39

7:10 PM – 9/45(+2)

7:15 PM – 4/85

7:20 PM – 0/45

7:40 PM – 0/52

7:50 PM – 0/39

8 PM – 8/159

8:10 PM – 0/45

8:20 PM – 0/41

8:30 PM – 14/85

9:10 PM – 0/52

9:15 PM – 2/52

9:20 PM – 0/41

9:30 PM – 0/159

9:40 PM – 0/85

9:50 PM – 0/39

10:10 PM – 0/45

10:15 PM – 0/85

10:20 PM – 0/45

10:40 PM – 0/52

10:50 PM – 0/39

11 PM – 2/159

 

Total from 7 theaters: 1902(+142)/18042 (10.5%)

[XXR vs XXR]

On 7/6/2019 at 12:17 PM, VenomXXR said:

 

The Lion King -- AMC Willowbrook 24 -- 12 Days to Previews

 

Dolby Prime: 2 show times, 149 tickets sold out of 410 available (36.34%)

IMAX: 2 show times, 74 tickets sold out of 302 available (24.50%)

3D: 10 show times, 33 tickets sold out of 794 available (04.16%)

Digital: 22 show times, 87 tickets sold out of 1311 available (06.63%)

Fan Event: 1 show time, 85 tickets sold out of 125 available (68.0%)

 

Total: 37 show times, 428 tickets sold out of 2942 available (14.55%)

 

 

Comps

Toy Story 4 - 822 tickets sold by 330pm on previews night

Pikachu - 280 tickets sold by 730pm on Wednesday before previews night

Aladdin - 267 tickets sold by 730pm on Wednesday before previews night

 

 

The Lion King -- AMC Willowbrook 24 -- 8 Days to Previews

 

Dolby Cinema: 2 show times, 184 tickets sold out of 410 available (44.88%)

IMAX: 2 show times, 99 tickets sold out of 302 available (32.78%)

3D: 10 show times, 40 tickets sold out of 794 available (05.04%)

Digital: 21 show times, 119 tickets sold out of 1268 available (09.38%)

Fan Event: 1 show time, 96 tickets sold out of 125 available (76.80%)

 

Total: 36 show times, 538 tickets sold out of 2898 available (18.56%)

 

 

Comps

Toy Story 4 - 822 tickets sold by 330pm on previews night

Pikachu - 280 tickets sold by 730pm on Wednesday before previews night

Aladdin - 267 tickets sold by 730pm on Wednesday before previews night