The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

TLK Saturday presales:

Theaters: 230

Showings: 5060

Tickets Sold: 33446 (85.4% of Friday)

Tickets Available: 709668

Estimated ATP: 10.84

Estimated total sales: 362695 (80% of Friday)

Estimated nationwide sales: 3.3 million

 

TLK Sunday presales:

Theaters: 230

Showings: 4939

Tickets Sold: 18226 (54% of Saturday)

Tickets Available: 693278

Estimated ATP: 10.17

Estimated total sales: 185365 (51% of Saturday)

Estimated nationwide sales: 1.7 million

 

Based on the 4-day data, I estimate that TLK's total domestic presales for all days are around 15 million at this point in time, with 14 million of that being for the OW.

 

 

good ?

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, john2000 said:

good ?

In the same range as Captain Marvel from what I remember of DW updates (adjusting this to a DW number it would be 4-5 million), so yeah excellent numbers for a family film

[XXR vs XXR]

42 minutes ago, Menor said:

Based on the 4-day data, I estimate that TLK's total domestic presales for all days are around $15 million at this point in time, with 14 million of that being for the OW.

 

That’s excellent considering we still have 10 days of presales to go. Great shot at $40m, outside shot at $50m. 

[FlashMaster659]

Just now, VenomXXR said:

 

That’s excellent considering we still have 10 days of presales to go. Great shot at $40m, outside shot at $50m. 

$50m would be close to IW

[XXR vs XXR]

4 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

$50m would be close to IW

 

More spread out than IW but yes, decently close. If you figure it should increase 50-60% in the 7 days this week and potentially double in the 4 presale days next week, we could get close to $50m. 

Now if I was betting, I’d say $40-45m. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

13 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

More spread out than IW but yes, decently close. If you figure it should increase 50-60% in the 7 days this week and potentially double in the 4 presale days next week, we could get close to $50m. 

Now if I was betting, I’d say $40-45m. 

IW was 50 million Friday before opening, not 50 million right before Thursday previews. It likely finished much higher than that. But TLK doesn't need to match IW's presales anyway.

[XXR vs XXR]

4 minutes ago, Menor said:

IW was 50 million Friday before opening, not 50 million right before Thursday previews. It likely finished much higher than that. But TLK doesn't need to match IW's presales anyway.

 

Yea it definitely doesn’t need to, and won’t lol. 

 

If it’s over $40m then it’s for sure double TS4 presales. Everything bodes well so far for a $200m+ opening and potential $225m+ if the cards fall correctly. 

[Sunny Max]

1 hour ago, Menor said:

TLK Saturday presales:

Theaters: 230

Showings: 5060

Tickets Sold: 33446 (85.4% of Friday)

Tickets Available: 709668

Estimated ATP: 10.84

Estimated total sales: 362695 (80% of Friday)

Estimated nationwide sales: 3.3 million

 

TLK Sunday presales:

Theaters: 230

Showings: 4939

Tickets Sold: 18226 (54% of Saturday)

Tickets Available: 693278

Estimated ATP: 10.17

Estimated total sales: 185365 (51% of Saturday)

Estimated nationwide sales: 1.7 million

 

Based on the 4-day data, I estimate that TLK's total domestic presales for all days are around 15 million at this point in time, with 14 million of that being for the OW.

 

 

 

so $40 M to $45 total presales possible ...

 

impressive 

Edited July 9, 2019 by Sunny Max

[Sunny Max]

1 hour ago, john2000 said:

good ?

That's Huge .... considering we still have 10 days for presales to go ... can hit $45 M total presales ... 

[charlie Jatinder]

11 hours ago, Menor said:

TLK Friday presales:

 

Showings: 5039 (163% of showings for previews)

Theaters: 229

Tickets Sold: 39167 (92% of tickets sold for previews)

Tickets Available: 709125 (176% of seats available for previews)

Estimated ATP: $11.51

Total Estimated Sales: $451,164 (83% of total estimated sales for previews)

Estimated nationwide sales: $4 million

Assuming the number triple up from here, to $1.5mn final, and using the normal ratios; that will be $60mn plus True Friday. 

[XXR vs XXR]

15 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Assuming the number triple up from here, to $1.5mn final, and using the normal ratios; that will be $60mn plus True Friday. 

 

$60m is nice but $70m is nicer 😄

 

If China doesn’t have an upward correction soon, I’m gonna need it lol

[Menor the Destroyer]

Stuber previews:

Theaters: 203

Showings: 459

Tickets Sold: 654

Tickets Available: 45742

Estimated ATP: 11.3

Total Estimated Sales: $7389

Estimated Nationwide Sales: $60k

 

Crawl previews:

Theaters: 209

Showings: 497

Tickets Sold: 630

Tickets Available: 47847

Estimated ATP: 11.46

Total Estimated Sales: $7219

Estimated Nationwide Sales: $60k

 

Btw I have a feeling TLK is gonna make a run at the theater count record

Edited July 9, 2019 by Menor

[Porthos]

@CoolEric258 you said you were still tracking Hobbes and Shaw on the side, but not reporting it.  Do you happen to have any Cinemark theaters in your track?

 

I ask because a bunch of showings of H&S were cancelled at some point today and I don't know if it's a glitch or not.  

 

Also, the weirdest thing.  Most if not all of them were 3D showings.  Also saw a bunch of 3D showings converted to 2D showings at both Cinemark and non-Cinemark theaters and that is making me wonder if something is going on with the 3D print/release or not.

 

Right now there are exactly 2 3D showings in town.  Last night there were 11.  Might in fact only be 1 showing as a 2D showing yesterday was inexplicably shifted to 3D today and I reckon that is very probably an error.

 

As I double check now, all of the cancelled showings were in fact 3D.  Which is just plain odd.

 

Anyone else checking out Hobbs & Shaw on the side?  If so, maybe comment on whether they're seeing anything similar?

Edited July 9, 2019 by Porthos

[Eric the IF]

@Porthos

 

No, I'm not tracking any Cinemark theaters. Hobbs and Shaw is acting a little weird tho in my area. Some showtimes are acting glitchy by saying they're "sold out", but I sincerely doubt these showtimes went from 0 tickets to 100 tickets in just one day. A couple late showings just straight up disappeared. Maybe it's just a temporary glitch, or theaters trying to reconfigure something, but it is quite odd.

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

@Porthos

 

No, I'm not tracking any Cinemark theaters. Hobbs and Shaw is acting a little weird tho in my area. Some showtimes are acting glitchy by saying they're "sold out", but I sincerely doubt these showtimes went from 0 tickets to 100 tickets in just one day. A couple late showings just straight up disappeared. Maybe it's just a temporary glitch, or theaters trying to reconfigure something, but it is quite odd.

Any 3D showings left in the theaters you're tracking?  Were they the ones that disappeared?  Seeing if there's a pattern here or not.

Edited July 9, 2019 by Porthos

[Eric the IF]

Just now, Porthos said:

Any 3D showings left in the theaters you're tracking?  Were they the ones that disappeared?  Seeing if there's a pattern here or not.

So a lot of the showings that are being affected are 3D, but not all of them. I'd say at passing glance it's about half and half when it comes to active 3D shows. Don't remember the disappearances, but I believe a couple of them were 3D? Not entirely sure on that one.

[Eric the IF]

Crawl Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 Days and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	22	55	3,256	1.69%

 

Stuber Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 Days and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	24	69	3,044	2.27%

 

So because I hate myself, I'm gonna try and track movies with this kind of seat report like I used to do with Pulse. Any non-big movie will get this treatment of Monday-Thursday tracking. And looking at these numbers, they seem...fine? I have no reference to go off of, but FWIW, Stuber is two seats ahead of Hobbs and Shaw currently.

[Eric the IF]

The Lion King Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 Days and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	102	2,035	18,457	11.03%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 217****

 

I'm sure you're confused by the asteriks. So I think I might have screwed up yesterday's results. I think I neglected one showtime from AMC Woodhaven (the theater I mixed up with that shares the same name with another theater in Michigan) yesterday that I accounted for today. I double checked the seat count and everything, and either it was completely empty and miraculously gained 35 seats, or I just forgot about it. Either way, even if you take out those 35 seats, that's still 182 seats sold today at least. It's above and beyond every other day I've tracked so far, and is exactly the kind of strong momentum I was hoping for with this movie. I still can't do any comps yet, but this was a very, very good day.

[Cap]

The Lion King

Thursday Previews

 

The Lion King
	7.5	7.8	Sold	Total	%	Shows	SOs
Empire 25	1698	990	*	7341	13.48%	40	0
Lincoln Square 13	1288	1389	101	6472	21.46%	21	0
SM Cinemagic	58	79	21	2434	3.24%	14	0

 

Okay, so I have some good news and bad news regarding Empire 25.

• Good News: I figured out why my Atom App wasn't matching up with AMC's Website.
• Bad News: It appears the Website glitched out saying four showings (8:30, 8:40, 11:20, 11:40PM) were sold out.  Now it's showing them not only as available but almost empty.  That drops the Sold Tickets by 708.

I don't know if this is a glitch or accurate.  I am going to report it as it is -- and hopefully, on Wednesday when I do another seat count, it will have sorted itself out.

 

That all said, I'm still not excited about this for either Empire 25 or Lincoln Square.  TLK finally passed Dark Phoenix's total sales of 1383.  The problem is most of the standard shows are very thin.  

 

We're coming off a huge holiday weekend.  I am not freaking out just yet.  I would have liked to see a bigger jump, but, we still have two weeks.

 

Hobbs & Shaw, Crawl, and Stuber coming up.  

[Porthos]

The Lion King Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	191	17577	20673*	3096	14.98%

NOTE: One theater adjusted the blacked out seats they had resulting in two more seats available overall.

 

Total Seats Sold Today:              219

 

Unadjusted Comps

4.6980x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu 10 days before release.

3.2762x as many tickets sold as Aladdin 10 days before release.

3.8175x as many tickets sold as King of the Monsters 10 days before release.

1.7354x as many tickets sold as Toy Story 4 10 days before release.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  Pika Pika had 30 days of pre-sales, Aladdin had 25, King of the Monsters had 21, andToy Story 4 had 24 days of pre-sales while The Lion King has 25 days of pre-sales.

 

T-10:

Pika        41 seats sold [0 sellouts/64 shows |   6693/7352 seats    |   659 seats sold |  8.96% sold]

Aladdin   44 seats sold [0 sellouts/68 shows |   9052/9997 seats   |   945 seats sold |   9.45% sold]

KotM      49 seats sold [0 sellouts/90 shows | 11312/12123 seats  |   811 seats sold |   6.69% sold]

TS4        70 seats sold [0 sellouts/90 shows | 10525/12309 seats  | 1784 seats sold | 14.49% sold]

 

Adjusted Comps

1.7053x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 10 days before release.

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

PRE-SALES NOTE: Fallen Kingdom had 23 days of pre-sales while The Lion King has 25 days of pre-sales.

 

T-10:

JW2           60 seats sold  [0 sellouts/97 shows   |   8447/10113 seats | 1647 seats sold | 16.47% sold]

TLK (JW)  203 seats sold  [0 sellouts/191 shows | 15418/18259 seats | 2841 seats sold | 15.56% sold]

TLK (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom.