The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Eric the Fall Guy]

btw Lion King will come later at night. I just did Crawl and Stuber early to catch their last numbers before previews dropped.

[Neucentro]

I don't think reviews will impact the OW much as long as Disney keeps up the marketing push. WOM will partly depend on critics' reviews though (critics will shape the first narrative for the film). One thing to TLK's advantage is even some of the negative reviews say it's a better film than Aladdin.

[Yandereprime101189]

And you know Disney will cherry pick the reviews for the TV spots.

[Menor the Destroyer]

TLK Thursday:

Showings: 3461 (102% of Avengers: Endgame 5 days before release (hmmmmm....))

Theaters: 230

Seats Sold: 60958/438065 (+18595 since Monday) 

Estimated ATP: 12.73

Estimated Sales: 775728 (+232445 since Monday)

Estimated Nationwide Sales: $7 million (+ $2 million since Monday)

 

Went back digging through this thread to find the Endgame comp. Man were those fun times. I think the huge number of preview showings (higher than fucking Endgame) that TLK has combined with this being summer release will make the internal multi a bit lower than say BATB, thinking maybe 8ish atm. Maybe 25 million in previews-205 million weekend. Friday numbers in a few hours should make things clearer.

 

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, Menor said:

TLK Thursday:Showings: 3461 (102% of Avengers: Endgame 5 days before release (hmmmmm....))

Not THAT surprised.  I've been commenting a lot about how some theaters went nuts for TLK here.

 

Shorter runtime is also helping cram in showings, I reckon.

 

When all is said and done I expect it to be the second most showtimes ever locally, if nowhere close to EG.

[jedijake]

48 minutes ago, Neucentro said:

I don't think reviews will impact the OW much as long as Disney keeps up the marketing push. WOM will partly depend on critics' reviews though (critics will shape the first narrative for the film). One thing to TLK's advantage is even some of the negative reviews say it's a better film than Aladdin.

On the other hand, one thing going against TLK is that it is getting its terrible RT scores over a week before release whereas Aladdin had its review embargo lifted the day before its previews. That's a whole 8 days for the RT score of TLK to stagnate. 

[Porthos]

Going back and checking, at 8 days out (which is the numbers for last night)

 

EG: 243 showings locally (new theater not up and running yet)

TLK: 209 showings.  199 showings if new theater's showings removed.

 

EG finished with 347 showings.  I will be... surprised if TLK comes even remotely close to that number.

 

===

 

For the record, CM was 107 showings 8 days out (finished at 216) and IW was at 135 showings 8 days out (finished at 182).

Edited July 12, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, jedijake said:

On the other hand, one thing going against TLK is that it is getting its terrible RT scores over a week before release whereas Aladdin had its review embargo lifted the day before its previews. That's a whole 8 days for the RT score of TLK to stagnate. 

"Lion King" is trending worldwide right now on Twitter and has been for an hour, hour and a half (#9 WW at the moment).  Not entirely sure that is a good thing.  

Edited July 12, 2019 by Porthos

[Neucentro]

1 minute ago, jedijake said:

On the other hand, one thing going against TLK is that it is getting its terrible RT scores over a week before release whereas Aladdin had its review embargo lifted the day before its previews. That's a whole 8 days for the RT score of TLK to stagnate. 

These are mixed-to-positive reviews. The RT average rating is 6.3, which isn't terrible. I don't think it's too damaging to the appetite for the film among general audience.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

going back and checking, at 8 days out (which is the numbers for last night)

 

EG: 243 showings locally (new theater not up and running yet)

TLK: 209 showings.  199 showings if new theater's showings removed.

 

EG finished with 347 showings.  I will be... surprised if TLK comes even remotely close to that number.

 

===

 

For the record, CM was 107 showings 8 days out (finished at 216) and IW was at 135 showings 8 days out and finished at 182)

Still be an abnormally high number for a family film + kids are off school. To be completely honest I wouldn't be shocked (not saying this will happen) by 20*8=160 million or thereabouts. Though I do think it'll beat that. 

[XXR vs XXR]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

going back and checking, at 8 days out (which is the numbers for last night)

 

EG: 243 showings locally (new theater not up and running yet)

TLK: 209 showings.  199 showings if new theater's showings removed.

 

EG finished with 347 showings.  I will be... surprised if TLK comes even remotely close to that number.

 

===

 

For the record, CM was 107 showings 8 days out (finished at 216) and IW was at 135 showings 8 days out and finished at 182)

 

TLK will probably fall about 100 showings short of Endgame.

[Porthos]

10 minutes ago, Menor said:

Still be an abnormally high number for a family film + kids are off school. To be completely honest I wouldn't be shocked (not saying this will happen) by 20*8=160 million or thereabouts. Though I do think it'll beat that. 

It's a shockingly high number.  FSS is pretty high as well.

 

Fri:  335

Sat:  334

Sun: 333

 

It's very time consuming for me to get FSS showings so I only do it rarely.  But CM finished with 370/373/350 and IW finished with 391/389/370 (EG was an lol 549/544/515 at last check).

 

Summer is helping inflate Sunday showings I suppose.  But considering this is far from a final slate, theaters were betting big on TLK.

 

===

 

It's not just the OW, either.  There's a mess of showtimes already up for Aug 1st.  Nearly 80 showings already scheduled that far in advance over 10 theaters.  Now a lot of theaters don't have anything up and the ones that do can always cancel showings.  But it's been clear to me for a while that theaters were betting big on TLK.

 

Time will tell if that bet was a smart one or not.

Edited July 12, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

TLK will probably fall about 100 showings short of Endgame.

Century Arden has barely expanded.  Regal Natomas hasn't at all had its first expansion today.  West Wind Drive-In doesn't check in until Tue of release week. Century Doco hasn't expanded very much. Plus a few others might as expand as well.

 

If I had to guess, I think it might settle in at 240-260 showings.  Might depend on how pre-sales go between now and when final slates start going up next week.  But, sure, sounds like a good guesstimate.

[ThomasNicole]

13 minutes ago, jedijake said:

On the other hand, one thing going against TLK is that it is getting its terrible RT scores over a week before release whereas Aladdin had its review embargo lifted the day before its previews. That's a whole 8 days for the RT score of TLK to stagnate. 

You are overreacting, the reviews aren't terrible, they are average.

 

58% now with 6.3 average and above 100 reviews, it won't change that much anymore, at worst will close with around 54-55% or 61-62% at best, some people are talking like it was a Transformers or something like that, just relax.

 

Also, BATB reviews lifted 2 weeks before, and despite finish with 71%, it started with really average numbers too and that didn't hurt the OW or the presales. And honestly, i think RT impact are way bigger in early 2017, right after the BvS / SS situation.

 

 

[jedijake]

55 minutes ago, Porthos said:

"Lion King" is trending worldwide right now on Twitter and has been for an hour, hour and a half (#9 WW at the moment).  Not entirely sure that is a good thing.  

Depends on what is being said.

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, jedijake said:

Depends on what is being said.

That would be the implication of my post, yes.

 

---

 

I do think @ThomasNicole is absolutely right about over-interpreting this whole critic rollout.  The main takeaway I have is that TLK might not reach the stratospheric heights it could have with EG or even IW level review buzz.

 

The RT score isn't terrible and if people think it is, they should think again.  Could even pip into the fresh category.  

 

What it is however, is perhaps a bit of a pump on the breaks on its potential though.  No more, no less.

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

What it is however, is perhaps a bit of a pump on the breaks on its potential though.

 

The brakes are out on this train! 

 

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, VenomXXR said:

 

The brakes are out on this train! 

 

Brakes being out on trains usually lead to train wrecks, so be careful what you wish for. 

Spoiler

I realize that might have been the joke, but I decided to play along.

 

[FlashMaster659]

 

[XXR vs XXR]

17 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Brakes being out on trains usually lead to train wrecks, so be careful what you wish for. 

  Reveal hidden contents

I realize that might have been the joke, but I decided to play along.

 

 

Yes but that’s after it destroys everything in its path