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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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Nero Box Office Gold

Nero

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

Black Panther had the exact same thing. The first direct comp was Tomb Raider, and that came out a month later (I guess you could also argue something like Wrinkle in Time took away some families, but let's just use Tomb Raider for the time being), and made nothing. So if we're talking direct competition that made solid money, it's Ready Player One, which is about a month and a half.

 

And despite the lack of competition and rave WOM, Black Panther only managed 3.46x. Keep in mind, this is the highest MCU multiplier thus far.

 

On weekend 5, the same weekend as Tomb Raider, Shazam will come out. And...yeah, it's gonna at least double Tomb Raider's weekend by a comfortable amount, maybe even triple if WB manages to pull off their last-minute marketing push.

 

Even to a lesser extent, Dumbo will take away some (obviously not by a whole lot, but it's likely to make more than what Wrinkle in Time generated last year) of the family audience Captain Marvel would have.

 

Simply put, even if this garners Oscar buzz a la BP, I can't see a scenario where it reaches a 4x.

No highest multiplier belongs to GOTG in MCU which had 3.55.

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)

MT.com growth:

  

2019-03-04 12:00:31.593210 UTC (Overnight)
1	28%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
2	15%	Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral
3	11.5%	Captain Marvel


2019-03-04 13:00:24.228571 UTC (1st hour of MT updating)
1	27.7%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World  (-0.3%)
2	15.4%	Captain Marvel                              (+3.9%)
3	14.3%	Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral        (-0.7%)

2019-03-04 14:00:21.478684 UTC
1	27.6%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World  (-0.1%)
2	15.7%	Captain Marvel                              (+0.3%)
3	14.2%	Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral        (-0.1%)


2019-03-04 15:00:23.265491 UTC
1	27.1%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World  (-0.5%)
2	16%	Captain Marvel                              (+0.3%)
3	14.2%	Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral        (-----)


2019-03-04 16:00:22.694158 UTC
1	26.4%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World  (-0.7%)
2	16.6%	Captain Marvel                              (+0.6%)
3	14.3%	Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral        (+0.1%)

2019-03-04 17:00:30.322391 UTC
1	25.7%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World  (-0.7%)
2	17.9%	Captain Marvel                              (+1.1%)
3	14.1%	Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral        (-0.2%)

2019-03-04 18:00:28.223663 UTC
1	24.6%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World  (-1.1%)
2	19.7%	Captain Marvel                              (+1.8%)
3	14.3%	Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral        (+0.2%)

2019-03-04 19:00:30.495712 UTC
1	22.6%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World  (-2.0%)
2	21.9%	Captain Marvel                              (+2.2%)
3	14.3%	Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral        (-----)

==========

 

CM accelerated a bit in the last couple of hours, presumably as Sunday's total for HTTYD3's total  starts to roll off.  CM will probably catch Dragon 3 within a couple of hours next hour on MT.com.

Edited by Porthos
Edited in the latest hourly update from akvalle's tracker
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john2000 Blockbuster

john2000

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

MT.com growth:

  


2019-03-04 12:00:31.593210 UTC (Overnight)
1	28%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
2	15%	Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral
3	11.5%	Captain Marvel



2019-03-04 13:00:24.228571 UTC (1st hour of MT updating)
1	27.7%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World  (-0.3%)
2	15.4%	Captain Marvel                              (+3.9%)
3	14.3%	Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral        (-0.7%)

2019-03-04 14:00:21.478684 UTC
1	27.6%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World  (-0.1%)
2	15.7%	Captain Marvel                              (+0.3%)
3	14.2%	Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral        (-0.1%)



2019-03-04 15:00:23.265491 UTC
1	27.1%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World  (-0.5%)
2	16%	Captain Marvel                              (+0.3%)
3	14.2%	Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral        (-----)



2019-03-04 16:00:22.694158 UTC
1	26.4%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World  (-0.7%)
2	16.6%	Captain Marvel                              (+0.6%)
3	14.3%	Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral        (+0.1%)


2019-03-04 17:00:30.322391 UTC
1	25.7%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World  (-0.7%)
2	17.9%	Captain Marvel                              (+1.1%)
3	14.1%	Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral        (-0.2%)


2019-03-04 18:00:28.223663 UTC
1	24.6%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World  (-1.1%)
2	19.7%	Captain Marvel                              (+1.8%)
3	14.3%	Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral        (+0.2%)
==========

 

CM accelerated a bit in the last couple of hours, presumably as Sunday's total for HTTYD3's total  starts to roll off.  CM will probably catch Dragon 3 within a couple of hours on MT.com.

still sticking with your ow weekend prediction ?

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
Just now, john2000 said:

still sticking with your ow weekend prediction ?

Well now that I know that Sacramento is turning out for its Hometown Hero, I should probably lower it, due to bias factor. :ph34r:

 

 

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Daenys Cult Classic

Daenys

Posted
Posted 
Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-03-03 14:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	42.449%	9174	Captain Marvel (2019)
2	11.480%	2481	Captain Marvel
3	10.527%	2275	How to Train Your Dragon The Hidden World
4	07.227%	1562	Tyler Perrys A Madea Family Funeral
5	03.160%	683	The Lego Movie 2 The Second Part
6	02.934%	634	Alita Battle Angel
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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, john2000 said:

still sticking with your ow weekend prediction ?

More seriously, I now think 150 is all but a lock.  It would take something pretty drastic for it not to hit it, IMO.

 

Mind, drastic things have occasionally happened in the past. 

 

Still, if current trends continue, I'd take the over when it comes to 150. ;)

 

(as I note in the next post I've been guessing 160 for a while now and I see nothing to dissuade me of it - if anything, I'm starting to worry I might, MIGHT, be lowballing it)

Edited by Porthos
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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Porthos said:

More seriously, I now think 150 is all but a lock.  It would take something pretty drastic for it not to hit it, IMO.

 

Mind, drastic things have occasionally happened in the past. 

 

Still, if current trends continue, I'd be tempted to take the over when it comes to 150. ;)

 

BTW, I do want to remind folks of something. 

 

I am a pretty conservative person by nature (temperament, not politics :lol:)).  While I have my internal biases (see anything regarding SW), I do really try to play it safe when it comes to expectations.  I don't always succeed, mind you, but I do try.

 

Personally, I could see a major break out for CM this weekend. I mean, the signs look to be there for it to happen.

 

Enough to challenge/surpass the March OW record?

 

Well, I hate to be a broken record on this, but I really am no good at that sort of thing.  There's a reason I don't play the derby, after all. ;)  

 

So I'll leave it to others on the possibility of CM doing more than 160 OW (which has been my guess for a while), as they're better at it than me. 

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Nero Box Office Gold

Nero

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Premium George said:

Porthos data- $19m-$20m preview.

Fandango- $120m-$130m OW. (We don't have full data to compare to BP, so, maybe $140m)

Deep wang next numbers will put the clearest picture. 

Also I think after today's premier and review embargo lifts it will take off rapidly. Maybe 170M can happen

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Nova Global Phenomenon

Nova

Posted
Posted

Still thinking a range from $140-160M although before I thought it would be on the lower end but now if I were to bet on it I’d probably have it around $155M. 

 

Having said that, reviews should be dropping tomorrow so an extra wave of ticket sales will come through and $160M+ could be on the table. Regardless if it opens at $140M, $150M or $160M Captain Marvel is gonna be a box office smash both domestically and OS. 

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)

For the historical record.

 

Noon PST, Monday of release week:

 

(MT.com) 

2019-03-04 20:00:27.438220 UTC
1	24.6%	Captain Marvel
2	20.7%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
3	14.3%	Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral
4	5.2%	The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part
5	4.9%	Alita: Battle Angel
Edited by Porthos
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