The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Mulder]

17 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

If it were 5 or 6, I’d understand but WB is screwing themselves over when they do that. Then again WB sucks at marketing and arguably management for family films.

I'd disagree I think WB's marketing is pretty good, it's just that they seem to be obsessed with early previews

[YM!]

1 minute ago, Mulder said:

I'd disagree I think WB's marketing is pretty good, it's just that they seem to be obsessed with early previews

I meant as in post trailers. 

[fabiopazzo2]

Pikachu o/u 125M OW?

[Blaze Heatnix]

So, how is Hellboy performing? Good, bad, horrible?

[Brainbug]

Just now, Blaze Heatnix said:

So, how is Hellboy performing? Good, bad, horrible?

 

hellish.

[dakus]

10 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

So, how is Hellboy performing? Good, bad, horrible?

I’ve only done very quick napkin math, but I’ve found it hard to find presale comps for it. In terms of superhero movies it’s doing terrible (like >10M) but in terms of R-rated action movies it looks more salvageable (like <20M). It depends which way it plays out I guess.

Edited April 9, 2019 by dakus
Changed the < sign

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

22 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

Pikachu o/u 125M OW?

 

Under 

[Porthos]

20 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

So, how is Hellboy performing? Good, bad, horrible?

 

Edited April 9, 2019 by Porthos
Edited in a slightly better version, IMO

[Blaze Heatnix]

23 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

hellish.

 

Hilarious and tastefully done! XD

[Porthos]

16 minutes ago, dakus said:

I’ve only done very quick napkin math, but I’ve found it hard to find presale comps for it. In terms of superhero movies it’s doing terrible (like >10M) but in terms of R-rated action movies it looks more salvageable (like <20M). It depends which way it plays out I guess.

Even the Underworld series of films hit the low to mid-20s before the last entry, though:

(unadj)

Quote

ow	Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Gross / Theaters		Opening / Theaters		Date
1	5	Underworld: Blood Wars	SGem	$30,353,973	3,070	$13,688,751	3,070	1/6/17
2	1	Underworld Awakening	SGem	$62,321,039	3,078	$25,306,725	3,078	1/20/12
3	4	Underworld: Rise of the Lycans	SGem	$45,802,315	2,942	$20,828,511	2,942	1/23/09
4	2	Underworld: Evolution	SGem	$62,318,875	3,207	$26,857,181	3,207	1/20/06
5	3	Underworld	SGem	$51,970,690	2,928	$21,753,759	2,915	9/19/03

 

Might be talking in the realm of the last entry in the Resident Evil series of films:

 

(unadj)

Quote

Row	Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Gross / Theaters		Opening / Theaters		Date
1	6	Resident Evil: The Final Chapter	SGem	$26,830,068	3,104	$13,601,682	3,104	1/27/17
2	4	Resident Evil: Retribution	SGem	$42,345,531	3,016	$21,052,227	3,012	9/14/12
3	1	Resident Evil: Afterlife	SGem	$60,128,566	3,209	$26,650,264	3,203	9/10/10
4	3	Resident Evil: Extinction	SGem	$50,648,679	2,848	$23,678,580	2,828	9/21/07
5	2	Resident Evil: Apocalypse	SGem	$51,201,453	3,284	$23,036,273	3,284	9/10/04
6	5	Resident Evil	SGem	$40,119,709	2,528	$17,707,106	2,528	3/15/02

===

 

What would be other good comps here, if those two aren't so hot.

Edited April 9, 2019 by Porthos

[dakus]

Actually now that I glance at it a again, Predator might be the best Fandango comp for Hellboy, which would put it around 16.5M off of the Monday numbers. So right on par with tracking to be a huge flop.

 

Also, it looks like After is actually doing surprisingly well for its expectations. Outsold Five Feet Apart yesterday.

Edited April 9, 2019 by dakus

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

 

Just dropping this off.....

 

 

Infinity War 7-Days After Presales Started

 

2018-03-23 15:00:58.563061 UTC

18.8% Pacific Rim: Uprising

13.2% I Can Only Imagine

9.9% Black Panther

6.7% Wrinkle in Time, A

6.5% Avengers: Infinity War

 

 

Infinity War 16 Days Before Opening

 

2018-04-10 15:01:08.878006 UTC

30% Quiet Place, A

15.6% Avengers: Infinity War

9.9% Ready Player One

8.3% Blockers

4.3% Chappaquiddick

 

 

Endgame 7-Days After Presales / 16 Days Before Opening

 

2019-04-09 15:00:36.745217 UTC

31.9% Avengers: Endgame

19.5% Shazam!

10.2% Pet Sematary

6.8% Dumbo

6.7% Captain Marvel

[Menor the Destroyer]

Breakdown of Cinemark data for Endgame (218 theaters)

All numbers are without sellouts (I overlooked putting a sellout counter into each day's tracker, will add this along with a ticket price estimator to next week's run)

 

Thursday, April 25:

Showings: 3016

Tickets Sold: 234940/339730 (69.15%)

 

Friday, April 26:

Showings: 3948

Tickets Sold: 235659/522653 (45.09%)

 

Saturday, April 27:

Showings: 3988

Tickets Sold: 233713/527724 (44.71%)

 

Sunday, April 28:

Showings: 3733

Tickets Sold: 142783/495313 (28.83%)

 

Now what I find interesting about this is how the tickets sold is almost exactly the same from Thursday through Saturday. If we take @Porthos Sacramento data as showing that Endgame has currently almost the exact same sales as IW final on Thursday, then using IW's preview night of 39 million we would get currently $117 million sold from just Thursday through Saturday (!!!). And then using the ratio of Sunday we would get a total of $140 million already sold for the OW (!!!!!). And keep in mind this number is without sellouts, of which there were quite a few. However, there are some caveats with this extrapolation, as we don't know what percentage of that preview # for IW was walkups (can't imagine it was very large, though), and it's possible Thursday showings would have a significantly higher proportion on higher-priced premium screens which would again skew the data (I will add a ticket price estimator which will give lower and upper bounds before I run this next week to test this hypothesis). However, looking at this it seems quite possible that Endgame has already broken TFA's $100 million presale record, which would be unbelievable for a movie 2.5 weeks out. 

[YM!]

Well, by the time I get to it tomorrow, Endgame might have the first sellout as the 6:00 showing has 299/301 seats filled. Which is unprecedented for the movies I have tracked at North Shore Cinema.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

9 minutes ago, Menor said:

Now what I find interesting about this is how the tickets sold is almost exactly the same from Thursday through Saturday. If we take @Porthos Sacramento data as showing that Endgame has currently almost the exact same sales as IW final on Thursday, then using IW's preview night of 39 million we would get currently $117 million sold from just Thursday through Saturday (!!!). And then using the ratio of Sunday we would get a total of $140 million already sold for the OW (!!!!!). And keep in mind this number is without sellouts, of which there were quite a few. However, there are some caveats with this extrapolation, as we don't know what percentage of that preview # for IW was walkups (can't imagine it was very large, though), and it's possible Thursday showings would have a significantly higher proportion on higher-priced premium screens which would again skew the data (I will add a ticket price estimator which will give lower and upper bounds before I run this next week to test this hypothesis). However, looking at this it seems quite possible that Endgame has already broken TFA's $100 million presale record, which would be unbelievable for a movie 2.5 weeks out. 

 

Excellent, excellent work @Menor

 

I estimated a roughly 10% increase in tickets sold for Thursday and 3% for Friday to adjust for your sellouts. This gives us 877659 tickets sold across 218 locations. Endgame will be playing in close to 4500 theaters, but lets call it 4400 for the sake of being conservative. If the data holds roughly true, that means we're already at 17.7 million tickets sold for opening weekend. If you figure an average price of $10 lets say, we're looking at $177 million already. 

I think it's safe to say that at this point, Endgame has an accumulated total somewhere between $140m - $180m already in the bank.

Edited April 9, 2019 by VenomXXR

[YM!]

As for Pikachu, I would say if it sells 50 tickets, it would be in the vicinity of Thor3/JL/SMH at my theater but considering how much mobile ticket buying online has changed and the nature of how it sell ticket wise, I’d say if it does around them it can mean anything but that imho means it should be good for the $75M-$90M range.

 

Again it all depends. 

Edited April 9, 2019 by YourMother the Edgelord

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

1 minute ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

As for Pikachu, I would say if it sells 50 tickets, it would be in the vicinity of Thor3/JL/SMH at my theater but considering how much mobile ticket buying online has changed and the nature of how it sell ticket wise, I’d say if it does around them it can mean anything but that imho means it should be good for the $75M-$90M.

 

I expect it to do $100m. It'll be a good movie for kids, and a bit of nostalgia for a lot of people. I know, for instance, that I will probably see it at some point just for the nostalgia of my youth. 

[YM!]

1 minute ago, VenomXXR said:

 

I expect it to do $100m. It'll be a good movie for kids, and a bit of nostalgia for a lot of people. I know, for instance, that I will probably see it at some point just for the nostalgia of my youth. 

I agree.

 

I meant as in at my theater, again it all depends. But as it stands now most of the $100M openers at my theaters start off at about 50 tickets so that’s PikaPika goal.

[Menor the Destroyer]

9 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Excellent, excellent work @Menor

 

I estimated a roughly 10% increase in tickets sold for Thursday and 3% for Friday to adjust for your sellouts. This gives us 877659 tickets sold across 218 locations. Endgame will be playing in close to 4500 theaters, but lets call it 4400 for the sake of being conservative. If the data holds roughly true, that means we're already at 17.7 million tickets sold for opening weekend. If you figure an average price of $10 lets say, we're looking at $177 million already. 

I think it's safe to say that at this point, Endgame has an accumulated total somewhere between $140m - $180m already in the bank.

Using this method I would tend to be a little more conservative on the theater count (some theatres haven't started presales for Endgame yet), average ticket price (decent amount of sales even already are in matinees), and sellouts (at least in my theater, the sold out auditoriums are always the smallest), but even doing say 4000 theaters, 865k tickets sold, and $8/ticket would give $127 million, still an insane number.

[VanillaSkies]

33 minutes ago, Menor said:

Using this method I would tend to be a little more conservative on the theater count (some theatres haven't started presales for Endgame yet), average ticket price (decent amount of sales even already are in matinees), and sellouts (at least in my theater, the sold out auditoriums are always the smallest), but even doing say 4000 theaters, 865k tickets sold, and $8/ticket would give $127 million, still an insane number.

Forgive me for being perhaps a little naive, but I don't understand how an average $8/ticket is realistic. 
Considering many of the largest theaters have their minimum tickets at $12-15, with Dolby, IMAX, DBOX, VIP, etc being anywhere from $15-$25.

I understand the logic of average ticket prices, but on opening weekend we can expect all of the specialty shows to be sold out, bumping up the average by quite a bit. Considering the amount of late shows being added as well, it's likely to have quite a high adult ticket share. I would think $10 average would be more realistic.