Weekend Actuals: 36.2 M ALIEN: COVENANT | 34.7 M GOTG II | 11.7 M EVERYTHING, EVERYTHING

[baumer]

5 hours ago, YourMother said:

Worst case scenario for GV2: $360M/$450M/$810M 

Best case: $380M/$475M/$855M

 

I pesonally think best case is over 400.  360 is Civil War legs from here out.  But its going to drop softly next weekend and will get a boost on Father's Day as well.  I still think it will finish with about 385-390, but 400 can't be ruled out.

[WrathOfHan]

3 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

 

Or those Pink Gifs, the TF4 one and some Nolan related ones I think.

[baumer]

5 hours ago, filmnerdjamie said:

 

Apples and oranges.

 

He got fired because he was a nightmare to deal with on Fantastic Four to the point he was fired off the film in post-production (Had some friends who worked on it - Trank was despised) and that Star Wars spin-off was a ways off in development. 

 

Aladdin is casting its leads now, has its big selling point in the Genie locked down with the hiring on Will Smith and lenses later this fall.

 

Good to see you here bud......this place is better when you are here.  Don't be a stranger this summer.

[alisson23]

3 minutes ago, mahnamahna said:

It leaves room for June in general to explode.

 

June 2017's lineup is arguably stronger/more well-rounded than June 2012/June 2013.

Rough Night: $15 million/$50 million

I hope you are wrong with this one. It looks funny as hell. Would love see it doing $100M+.

[baumer]

5 hours ago, drdungbeetle said:

So much for the "Wimpy kid is gonna outgross Guardians" thing, eh?

 

Who said that?

[Frozen]

4 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

I pesonally think best case is over 400.  360 is Civil War legs from here out.  But its going to drop softly next weekend and will get a boost on Father's Day as well.  I still think it will finish with about 385-390, but 400 can't be ruled out.

 

You don't think pirates or baywatch will hurt it at all?

Edited May 21, 2017 by Frozen

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, baumer said:

 

Who said that?

A few people on here took my "Wimpy Kid and GOTG are about even at my theater" post as the actual estimate  

[baumer]

5 hours ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

Plus...the Transformers-films are still relying on Michael Bay, which he may be a reason why "The Last Knight" has lesser hype this time around. Put anyone else on the director chair....and it would be a little bit better and exciting.

 

I disagree with that vehemently.  You can personally dislike Bay, but he is not less exciting a director than anyone else.  

[John Marston]

if Bay hadn't been director of Transformers it would have done Battleship or Power Rangers numbers. 

[baumer]

5 hours ago, drdungbeetle said:

I honestly don't know why they stuck with Bay this long. Most franchises go through multiple directors by this point and it's not like the scripting ever improved. People who hate him won't watch the movies and most people don't know who the director is. Seems like they could've at least made the movies more cheaply by swapping him out for a younger, hungrier director.

 

Because  North America is one market.  Transformers is a billion dollar franchise.  That's why they have stuck with him.

[LaughingEvans]

1 minute ago, Frozen said:

 

You don't think pirates or baywatch will hurt it at all?

 

Pirates will have double features with GotG, so it's not really a threat.

[Goffe]

3 hours ago, The Panda of the Caribbean said:

 

Alien lied in its marketing.  It marketed itself as a horror movie but it plays like Prometheus, with sparing amounts of horror.

 

Marketing a movie as something it's not is the easiest way to have bad WoM.

 

(The movie's also not very good, it's only decent)

WOM doesn't kick in until a few days after the OW. It has little effect on the OW. Besides that, the OD was already very unspectacular, proving that the Alien hook wasn't enough. Also, a lot people would disagree with you that A:C plays like a Prometheus sequel.

[baumer]

5 hours ago, filmnerdjamie said:

 

Nope. I simply work with history and facts. Sorry if that doesn't gel with what you want to hear. I recall similar trolling remarks from you when I suggested Age of Ultron wouldn't crack $500M domestic based strictly on history and facts.

 

And talking of biased-ness, you clearly are doing so yourself, based on your blatantly ignoring my valid and proven point with Alien: Covenant. 

 

I agree with you about Pirates 5.  Depp is poison right now.  No one cares for him.  And the third and fourth film were not well received at all.  I can't predict what it will do internationally, but under 200 here seems logical.

[Mockingjay Raphael]

41 minutes ago, a2knet said:

Witch has the been the best creature feature of the last 10 years? Any suggestions?

(Looking in the horror/thriller/scary category)

 

CALVIN!!!!!

[baumer]

5 hours ago, drdungbeetle said:

Jamie somehow thinks Ritchie won't be dropped from Aladdin after losing WB 150 mil on King Arthur. His "facts" are about as useful as those of most non-rth/empire posters on here.

 Jaime is in the industry in one way or another.  He knows what he speaks of.

 

All he's saying about POTC 5 is that the recent history is not kind to it.  

 

Alice in Wonderland 2 tanked.

Johnny was accused of spousal abuse

Another similar film with a similar gap in sequels just opened to 36 million and will finish well back of Prometheus.

 

I don't think he is letting his personal feelings get in the way.  In fact, a lot of the board members agree with him.  Here are the summer game predictions for PotC5:

 

JJ-8 - 288.3m
franfar - 278.3m
glassfairy - 275m
WrathofHan - 260m
The Panda - 250m
Empire - 238m
MovieMan - 235m
Mike Hunt - 230m
damnitgeorge08 - 230m
Fancyarcher - 229m
Blankments - 225m
bcf26 - 225m
MrPink - 225m
Exxdee - 220m
aabattery - 220m
Spaghetti - 220m
Matrix4You - 217m
Jake Gittes - 217.3m
Goffe - 205m
That One Guy - 205m
darkelf - 204m
narniads - 201m
jj99 - 200m
Telemachos - 198m
Wrath - 197m
Chewy - 188m
grim22 - 185m
The Dark Alfred - 182m
kayumanggi - 180m
Simionski - 180m
Baumer - 180m
#ED - 180m
Kalo - 179m
Chaasmi - 178m
Grey Ghost - 175m
24Lost - 175m
BastienGiot - 170m
Cmasterclay - 165m
Water Bottle - 165m
Tree - 161m
DamienRoc - 158m

 

So there are a lot of people who have it with less than 240.

[baumer]

5 hours ago, damnitgeorge08 said:

Now, if he proved right about DP2, that would be crazy!!

 

I once predicted The Hangover to finish with less than Very Bad Things adjusted.

 

SO......

 

[WrathOfHan]

Now's a good time to plug my club for POTC: http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/23365-now-back-to-the-good-part-pirates-of-the-caribbean-dead-men-tell-no-tales-over-on-stranger-tides-dom-241m-club/

 

[Maxmoser3]

Alien leads in close race against Guardians.

 

Alien:Covenant narrowly led the weekend, while Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 2 wasn't too far behind. 

 

Overall the top 12 was at $117.2 million which was down around six percent from last year. When Captain America:Civil War led its second weekend. While Money Monster had a solid debut, and The Darkness opened not bad.

 

While it could likely flip flop in the actuals, Alien:Covenant narrowly won the weekend with an estimated $36 million opening weekend. Which the third best debut of the Alien franchise right behind Prometheus, and AVP:Alien Vs. Predator. But is a kinda disappointing result considering it's solid preview number, and how the other Alien films have performed(even in terms of adjusting ticket price inflation). With bigger titles coming out starting this coming up weekend, and a busy June schedule, Alien should collapse. While it will more likely fall short of $100 million domestic, it should make a profit overseas. 

 

While hot on Alien's tail, Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol.2 became the 2nd film of 2017 to pass the $300 million mark stateside! And while it held not as strong as its predecessor on its third weekend three years ago which had a 40% drop. While Vol.2 dropped 46% which is a vast improvement from Civil War's nearly 55% drop last summer. With a more crowded schedule coming up, Guardians should still hold fine and should make around $375 million domestic.

 

While most of the new releases debuted on the lower end of expectations. Everything, Everything had a solid start with an estimated $12 million, which was on the high end of expectations. While less than the starts of If I Stay, and Me Before You, it's still a solid start considering it's small $10 million budget and Warner Bros needed a somewhat decent start for a film after having King Arthur bomb last weekend. Look for Everything, Everything to make around $30 million domestic.

 

Snatched had a hefty 61% drop this weekend, which is slightly steeper than Hot Pursuit's nearly 60% decline 2 years ago, and way steeper than Schumer's last film Trainwreck in the middle of the summer of 2015. Overall with Baywatch hitting theaters on Thursday, and mixed word of mouth look for Snatched to come close to $45 million domestic.

 

Rounding out the top five this weekend, was the fourth installment of the Diary Of A Wimpy Kid franchise, which has had its lowest grossing debut with its latest installment Diary Of A Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul with an estimated $7.2 million debut. Although there could be an increase or a very small drop coming on Memorial Day weekend, look for Wimpy Kid to make above $20 million domestic.

 

 

Last weekend's big flop, King Arthur:Legend Of The Sword dropped as expected this weekend with a 55% drop which is slightly steeper than the 2004 adaption's 53% drop in the middle of the summer of 2004. With a bigger slate coming up, look for the king to miss to his mark below $40 million.

 

With its second best hold of its run thus far, Fate Of The Furious had solid hold around 41%, and should make around $225-$228 million domestic.

 

The Boss Baby still holding strong in its 8th weekend with a drop under 40%, and with not any true family completion until Dreamworks Animation's next film Captain Underpants on June 2nd. Look for The Boss Baby to crawl close to $175 million domestic.

 

Beauty and the Beast still hanging out in the top 10 on its 10th weekend, which is so far the most a film has held on in the top 10  in 2017 thus far! Look the beast to capture around $515-$520 million domestic.

 

How To Be A Latin Lover had a decent hold at 43% which is nothing like Instructions Not Included but not bad either. Look for Latin Lover to flirt around $35 million domestic. 

[MikeQ]

5 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

I don't think GOTG will drop 25% today...it'll drop closer to 30, if not 32 or 33.  Last weekend Sunday was Mother's Day.  Not sure why they are giving it the same drop as last Sunday.  Our holiday Monday here in Canada won't help the Sunday box office.  If you look at the same Sunday last year, all holdovers in the top ten fell at least 33% except Mother's Day, which fell 30.  I think GotG and Alien are overestimated.  

 

It is definitely possible. But I also wonder, how much does Mother's Day really help comic book films like Guardians? Of other Marvel films that also had Mother's Day fall on the second weekend:

 

Ultron dropped 33% on Mother's Day Sunday and then dropped 32.4% on the following Sunday.

Iron Man 3 dropped 35.2% on Mother's Day Sunday and then dropped 29.8% on the following Sunday.

Spider-Man 3 dropped 37.1% on Mother's Day Sunday and then dropped 30.0% on the following Sunday.

 

Do we really have much evidence to suggest that Mother's Day significantly softens these kinds of films Sunday drops, given they all dropped similarly (or better) the Sunday after?

 

Guardians dropped 23.7% and 25.1% its past two Sundays, so I wonder just how much of a stretch a 25.4% drop this Sunday really is? I'm just thinking out loud. I think you could be right, but I'm just not certain. It seems like a normal Sunday drop for Guardians at this point. I could see the actual Sunday drop being similar, if somewhat worse than estimated.

 

Peace,

Mike

[baumer]

3 hours ago, Frozen said:

 

You don't think pirates or baywatch will hurt it at all?

 

It's Memorial Weekend in the US.  Like Christmas, there's room for every film on the weekend.  I think they could hurt it a little, but not a lot.  I'm going with a drop of about 44% for the three day.