Weekend Actuals: 36.2 M ALIEN: COVENANT | 34.7 M GOTG II | 11.7 M EVERYTHING, EVERYTHING

[a2k]

Even without China F8 is doing 600+ OS.

Popular global tentpoles like all CBMs, POTC5, etc. would be happy to do 600 OS including China.

Edited May 21, 2017 by a2knet

[YM!]

1 minute ago, a2knet said:

Even without China F8 is doing 600+ OS.

Popular global tentpoles like all CBMs, POTC5, etc. would be happy to do 600 OS including China.

Except for maybe the Avengers series, it's hard to pull off $600M OS minus China for a CBM.

[drdungbeetle]

Based on Covenant's run, I really wonder why people put so much into talk of presales for these things. Walkup matters more for 90 percent of movies, presales only matter for things like Deathly Hallows/Hunger Games/Avengers.

[YM!]

Any thoughts on Pirates?

O/U Apocalypse 4 Day?

[ThomasNicole]

6 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Any thoughts on Pirates?

O/U Apocalypse 4 Day?

Over by far

[MrFanaticGuy34]

17 minutes ago, filmnerdjamie said:

 

Nope. I simply work with history and facts. Sorry if that doesn't gel with what you want to hear. I recall similar trolling remarks from you when I suggested Age of Ultron wouldn't crack $500M domestic based strictly on history and facts.

 

And talking of biased-ness, you clearly are doing so yourself, based on your blatantly ignoring my valid and proven point with Alien: Covenant. 

I didn't have Alien: Covenant on my radar....so i didn't bother with predicting it. As for Age of Ultron....i wasn't aboard when that film came out....but i knew $459M DOM was a good result either way and i did not bid over $500M for that film.

 

And please, don't twist mine or anyone's arguments with your so called "history & facts". And it's said from a guy who thought Deadpool wasn't gonna be a $300M-grosser, Captain America 3 not hitting $400M, Heck....Maleficent & World War Z not hitting $200M DOM at all. "History" doesn't always go well for you, huh?

 

We are talking about POTC5. You may not see it doing well.....and i know you will probably hate it like the previous sequels....but trying to say that Pirates 5 has nothing going for it...is just folly.

 

When have you ever been wrong on box office predictions before? Name a few that overperformed your expectations.

Edited May 21, 2017 by MrFanaticGuy34

[drdungbeetle]

Over Apoc, it has somewhat more hype for whatever reason. I don't expect the reviews to be too much better though.

[KJsooner]

Baumer called it earlier on! GotgV2 is acting exactly like Winter Soldier instead of civil war. Gotta give him credit.

[drdungbeetle]

Just now, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

I didn't have Alien: Covenant on my radar....so i didn't bother with predicting it. As for Age of Ultron....i wasn't aboard when that film came out....but i knew $459M DOM was a good result either way. I did not bid over $500M for that film.

 

And please, don't twist mine or anyone's arguments with your so called "history & facts". And it's said from a guy who thought Deadpool wasn't gonna be a $300M-grosser, Captain America 3 not hitting $400M, Heck....Maleficent & World War Z not hitting $200M at all. "History" doesn't always go well, huh?

 

We are talking about POTC5. You may not see it doing well.....and i know you will probably hate it.....but trying to say that Pirates 5 has nothing going for it...is just folly.

 

When have you ever been wrong on box office predictions before? Name a few that overperformed your expectations.

Jamie somehow thinks Ritchie won't be dropped from Aladdin after losing WB 150 mil on King Arthur. His "facts" are about as useful as those of most non-rth/empire posters on here.

[Lordmandeep]

Pirates 5 has strong awareness

 

 

The issue is getting people to pay to watch the film 

[drdungbeetle]

Just now, Lordmandeep said:

Pirates 5 has strong awareness

 

 

The issue is getting people to pay to watch the film 

Halfway decent reviews/early reactions will help

Pirates is more likely to get them than Transformers IMO

[Premium George]

2 minutes ago, KJsooner said:

Baumer called it earlier on! GotgV2 is acting exactly like Winter Soldier instead of civil war. Gotta give him credit.

Now, if he proved right about DP2, that would be crazy!!

[Cookson]

After a fantastic previews number for AC, and decent early weekend projections after that, 36m seems kinda disappointing.

[ThomasNicole]

8 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

Pirates 5 has strong awareness

 

 

The issue is getting people to pay to watch the film 

I read a lot of reactions saying the movie is similar to the 1st, i think this will help a lot with GP.

[alisson23]

1 hour ago, Arlborn said:

 

Why are you constantly such a dick? Should someone go back through your post history and bring up all the predictions you got wrong just to be a dick back? Maybe they should start with your GOTGv2's trolling prediction.

 

Just grow up man.

 

These predictions that you're talking about I made BEFORE the release not AFTER the previews number came out. There's a huge difference. Alien: Covenant is a sequel of a movie that has an enormous fanbase, and it had previews starting at 8PM, and the movie doesn't seemed like it was having good WOM. It was obvious that it was going to be front-loaded on previews.

Apart of this, I was right on my GOTG2 prediction, I don't know where you saw me being a troll:

~270m from current markets (I'm being optimistic)

~110m from China

~40m Japan + SK

~25m Russia

~35m others small markets

~= $480m

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/23798-guardians-of-the-galaxy-ii-3838 m-overseas-●-6506-m-worldwide/?do=findComment&comment=2979399

 

I saw a lot of people here making realistic predictions based on comparisons after Aliens' previews numbers came out, but they didn't have not even 1/4 of the likes of what he had. Why???

 

[drdungbeetle]

Just now, Cookson said:

After a fantastic previews number for AC, and decent early weekend projections after that, 36m seems kinda disappointing.

The "high presales" were clearly for the previews. This wouldn't be the first movie the projections got botched on because of presale estimates. Most of the fan reviews (as opposed to critic reviews) were notably poor.

[CJohn]

Alien is only at 81M OS despite playing everywhere. This ain't no Prometheus.

[Mockingjay Raphael]

Alien is at $81m OS, despite playing everywhere but China. This won't cross even $150m OS, with maybe $80m from DOM, it will barely cross $200m WW. Ridley is done with this franchise.

[Webslinger]

Good opening for Alien: Covenant, all things considered. I know some people will be alarmed with the weekend multiplier, but it's not that far off from Prometheus's opening weekend multiplier despite being more frontloaded in its previews. Legs may not be strong enough for it to hit $100 million, but overseas business should make it a profitable venture for Fox.

 

Guardians held up pretty well. In addition to posting a better drop, it's also a few million ahead of where Civil War landed on its third weekend last year.

 

Everything, Everything posted an okay opening. I'm surprised that it wasn't as frontloaded as other summer YA adaptations (though, to be fair, most high schools are still in session).

 

Snatched got mauled between its middling word-of-mouth and the inflating effect Mother's Day had last weekend.

 

Diary of a Wimpy Kid predictably didn't find much of an audience. The series was always going to have a relatively short shelf life given its middle school setting, but this sequel was still at least three years too late to gain any sort of traction with audiences.

 

Beauty and the Beast has now been in the top ten for ten weekends. It's kinda hard to believe that a film that isn't going to a hit a 3.0 multiplier in total has had such longevity.

[drdungbeetle]

3 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Alien is only at 81M OS despite being playing everywhere. This ain't no Prometheus.

Prometheus looked like something different, this looked like...another Alien movie. Without Sigourney Weaver.