Wednesday Numbers: Baby Driver $5.7M, TF5 3,25M (-43%), Cars 3 2.8M, WW 2.77M

[Eric Prime]

Quote

Sony-TriStar/Media Rights Capital’s Baby Driver is heading toward an opening day in the low to mid $5M range as of this minute. With evening shows occurring on the East Coast currently, and West Coast business yet to click, we could see a slightly higher figure tomorrow morning.

 

http://deadline.com/2017/06/baby-driver-opening-day-box-office-1202121299/

[Zakiyyah6]

I'm expecting like 6.3mil.

Edited June 29, 2017 by Zakiyyah6

[WrathOfHan]

Like I said earlier, this is looking to be a nighttime driven film. That would be a worse preview to OD multi than The Last Knight  

[That One Girl]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

Like I said earlier, this is looking to be a nighttime driven film. That would be a worse preview to OD multi than The Last Knight  

 

Which it is simply not having.

 

I'm thinking a 6.5M-7M OD, with great legs throughout the week.

[grim22]

The last time we had this calendar configuration (way back in 2006), movies stayed somewhat flat on Thursday, increased normal summer increases (55-60%) on Friday, had lower increases in the 20% range on Saturday (because of Canada taking half the day away from movies for their Independence day celebrations), Sunday was flat or increased from Saturday, Monday fell 20% and Tuesday fell 20%. With Cheap Tuesdays being a force of nature now, I expect Tuesdays to stay flat or increase from Monday.

 

Its going to be a bonanza 5-day weekend for movies which have enough of a screen count to maximize their potential.

[WrathOfHan]

The showing of BD that just started at my theater sold 40 tickets, which is pretty fucking incredible for a Wednesday night here. The 7:30 showing sold 58 tickets. It's been dominating my theater all day; the only other movie that's come close is Cars, and that's because of group buyouts.

Edited June 29, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[aabattery]

10 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

The showing of BD that just started at my theater sold 40 tickets, which is pretty fucking incredible for a Wednesday night here. The 7:30 showing sold 58 tickets. It's been dominating my theater all day; the only other movie that's come close is Cars, and that's because of group buyouts.

 

Maybe they mixed up Cars and Baby Driver.

[The Panda]

So evidence of frontloading?

[DAJK]

Dammit, that would be a bad multi  The movie isn't even doing that well at my theatre. 3.5-3.8M today, but that's without the 2.1M previews

[Zakiyyah6]

It's going to be interesting to see how this 5 day opening susses out. I'm hoping for the best. 

[grey ghost]

So, 30 m 5-day is dead, right?

[Arlborn]

4 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

So, 30 m 5-day is dead, right?

I hope not, WOM might still catch on.

 

But yeah, anything over 25M for it and over 16M(3day) for Wonder Woman will make me happy.

 

Edited June 29, 2017 by Arlborn

[WrathOfHan]

A 30M 5 day isn't dead yet. The fact Deadline provided a blank range and not a more accurate one already has me suspicious, and I expect the west coast shows to pick it up 1M+

Edited June 29, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[Dementeleus]

1 hour ago, The Panda said:

So evidence of frontloading?

 

It's an Edgar Wright movie, of course it's gonna be frontloaded.

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, Telemachos said:

 

It's an Edgar Wright movie, of course it's gonna be frontloaded.

 

Shaun of the Dead - 4.07x

Hot Fuzz - 4.04x

Scott Pilgrim - 2.97x

World's End - 2.95x

[Dementeleus]

1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

 

Shaun of the Dead - 4.07x

Hot Fuzz - 4.04x

Scott Pilgrim - 2.97x

World's End - 2.95x

 

Yes, do you see a trend?

 

I'm not saying the movie won't develop legs, but he's got a niche group of fans -- always the ones heavily targeted in marketing or special sneak screenings like SXSW -- who always rush out to see his movies immediately.

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, Telemachos said:

 

Yes, do you see a trend?

 

I'm not saying the movie won't develop legs, but he's got a niche group of fans -- always the ones heavily targeted in marketing or special sneak screenings like SXSW -- that always rush out to see his movies immediately.

 

What do you mean a trend?  The only trend was that this decade, they went from 4x to 2.9x, and that was when he developed a fanbase.  I think Baby Driver can manage a 2.9x too from its 3-day given its 5-day start and great reviews.  Maybe even more if it really catches on with audiences and appeals to others in the GA.

[Dementeleus]

Just now, That One Guy said:

 

What do you mean a trend?  The only trend was that this decade, they went from 4x to 2.9x, and that was when he developed a fanbase.  I think Baby Driver can manage a 2.9x too from its 3-day given its 5-day start and great reviews.  Maybe even more if it really catches on with audiences and appeals to others in the GA.

 

All I'm saying is that a frontloaded previews->OD is not surprising.

[That One Girl]

Baby Driver got an A- CinemaScore, which is equal to Scott Pilgrim's.  I know CinemaScore isn't really worth much, but who knows, this could be telling of general positive reception from the GA.

[Dementeleus]

1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

Baby Driver got an A- CinemaScore, which is equal to Scott Pilgrim's.  I know CinemaScore isn't really worth much, but who knows, this could be telling of general positive reception from the GA.

 

The GA didn't go to previews or OD of BABY DRIVER. The A- is basically from Wright fans (for what it's worth).