5-day Weekend #s: DM3 99M, BD 29.97M, WW 24.07M, TF5 24.05M, Cars 3 14.2M, House 11.9M

[MovieMan89]

The theme of 2018 at the box office could certainly be cannibalization. Summer and holiday stretches could be bloody. In the case of the Holiday it's the family aimed films that are insane (Mulan, Grinch, Beasts 2, Ralph 2, animated Spidey, Mary Poppins 2). 

[grey ghost]

25 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Deadpool is one of my favorite CBMs. I just do think 2 will increase. I do think the films will hinder each other but 2 has the potential advantage of being R rated which could increase more of a unique draw this summer. Deadpool 2 I'm thinking $350M.

 

Yeam, my thinking is, if GOTG2 can experience an increase then why not Deadpool 2?

[JohnnyGossamer]

4 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Oh it's for sure going to have to have a better reception I think. I personally think that Guardians of the Galaxy 2 was very lucky to do as well as it did. It was lucky to increase from its predecessors 333 million.

Aside from both Guardians Vol. 2 and Wonder Woman benefiting from just pathetic competition, why? Audiences liked it. It's a family movie. It performed accordingly. Same applies to Wonder Woman as well. I do agree that if either opened in Spidey's current slot, things would've been more difficult given the WOM of Baby Driver and uber-praise blockbusters like Apes and Dunkirk are receiving. Not to mention, smaller competition but bankable stuff like Valerian and Atomic also generating very positive buzz.

[CJohn]

5 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

BD forecast:

 

Remainder of this week: 16M (46M Total)

Jul 7: 14.1M (8M weekdays, 68.1M Total)

Jul 14: 9.2M (5.2M weekdays, 82.5M Total)

Jul 21: 6M (3.4M weekdays, 91.9M Total)

Jul 28: 4.2M (2.4M weekdays, 98.5M Total)

Aug 4: 2.7M (1.4M weekdays, 102.6M Total)

Aug 11: 1.6M (800k weekdays, 105M Total)

Aug 18: 1M (500k weekdays, 106.5M Total)

 

Final Total: 110M (5.24x from 3 day/3.67x from 5 day)

[YM!]

BD does $100M+ domestic and possibly becomes the highest grossing comedy this year. Dreams do come true. If the GA gives BD a chance due to glowing reviews, I wonder if other films benefit from a high RT score too.

[JohnnyGossamer]

1 minute ago, grey ghost said:

 

Yeam, my thinking is, if GOTG2 can experience an increase then why not Deadpool 2?

It definitely can... But, it would be more like Guardians. I can see Deadpool 2 grossing just over $400M+ DOM.

[TalismanRing]

3 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Wonder where the Transformers series goes from here. They already somewhat rebooted the series in the previous movie with a brand new cast so another reboot won't make much of a difference. Bumblebee might end up sub 100M domestic.

 

The writers room they had assembled was very talented, can't believe those names cranked out this movie that we watched. 

 

More proof that writers have little effect or power in the face of producers/directors.

[YM!]

1 minute ago, grey ghost said:

 

Yeam, my thinking is, if GOTG2 can experience an increase then why not Deadpool 2?

Deadpool 2 has very stronger competition than Guardians 2.

[John Marston]

Deadpool 1 benefitted from tying in without Valentine's Day and being the first big movie of 2016. Deadpool 2 won't have those advantages. It will do great but will likely decrease from the first 

[elcaballero]

4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

The theme of 2018 at the box office could certainly be cannibalization. Summer and holiday stretches could be bloody. In the case of the Holiday it's the family aimed films that are insane (Mulan, Grinch, Beasts 2, Ralph 2, animated Spidey, Mary Poppins 2). 

Absolutely. There are a lot of potential disappointments in the group you listed.

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

The theme of 2018 at the box office could certainly be cannibalization. Summer and holiday stretches could be bloody. In the case of the Holiday it's the family aimed films that are insane (Mulan, Grinch, Beasts 2, Ralph 2, animated Spidey, Mary Poppins 2). 

True this is also a problem. And if Aquaman and Phoenix has strong family appeal, the holiday season may be bloody. I am thinking Grinch and Mulan do $300M+, Beasts 2 and Ralph 2 decreases or stays flat from their predecessors, Poppins could either do Sing numbers or Into The Woods numbers. Spider-Man: The Animated Movie on paper to be honest seems like Lego Batman numbers at best but I think Miles Morales might draw in minority families more and a well done script by Lord and Miller might help it outgross TASM2 Domestic but barely (like ~$205M).

[DAR]

6 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Guardians 1 had better critical reception than guardians 2 and yet guardians 2 will increase nearly 60m dom. I dont see why deadpool 2 has to fall from the first one if it receives similar or better reception than the first one. The only impediment that I can see right now is the incredibly loaded late may/june schedule. Something should move. I was hoping Han Solo would move to December especially after the Lord/Miller fiasco but it doesnt look like it will

D23 is in two weeks Disney will probably say whether or not Han Solo is moving

[drdungbeetle]

8 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Wonder where the Transformers series goes from here. They already somewhat rebooted the series in the previous movie with a brand new cast so another reboot won't make much of a difference. Bumblebee might end up sub 100M domestic.

 

The writers room they had assembled was very talented, can't believe those names cranked out this movie that we watched. 

"Writers room"

And that's why it failed. 29136281389274927489 chimps on typewriters and they clearly couldn't agree and gel to make a coherent film.

Also, Age of Extinction was NOT A REBOOT. SAME CONTINUITY. SAME VOICE CAST. SAME DIRECTOR. Geez, do people not even know what a reboot is anymore?

Where will the series go from here? Hopefully mothballed for 10 years, but Paramount has such a thin bench I expect Transformers Origins: Skids and Mudflap in about 2021 right before Viacom mercifully dies.

[drdungbeetle]

Just now, DAR said:

D23 is in two weeks Disney will probably say whether or not Han Solo is moving

Lord and Miller suck. Don't use comedy directors for serious films.

[YM!]

Just now, DAR said:

D23 is in two weeks Disney will probably say whether or not Han Solo is moving

I still don't think it's moving though.

[Cochofles]

So Spider-Man: Homecoming finally opens next weekend, and it obviously isWonder Woman 's most "direct" competition. How much are we expecting the Patty Jenkins-helmed hit to drop for the weekend once hurricane Spidey hits?

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited July 2, 2017 by Cochofles

[Nova]

Han Solo needs to move its unwanted self out the way so Deadpool 2 can move to MDW and make ALL the money. 

[DAR]

7 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

The theme of 2018 at the box office could certainly be cannibalization. Summer and holiday stretches could be bloody. In the case of the Holiday it's the family aimed films that are insane (Mulan, Grinch, Beasts 2, Ralph 2, animated Spidey, Mary Poppins 2). 

Has Mulan even started filming yet?  I wouldn't be surprised if that finds itself in 2019

[Zakiyyah6]

I hope people don't have their hopes set too high for Deadpool 2 and I'm a big fan of the first movie but I'm keeping my expectations in check. I think Deadpool 2 could do 345 million or something close to the first one but to have an increase is going to be tough with that competition because Han Solo is not going to gross under 300 million  and I think Incredibles 2 is a lock for 300 million if I'm being honest.  it may not be a lock for all those crazy numbers that people are throwing out with regards to 400-500 but 300 I think it can do.

[Nova]

Just now, Cochofles said:

So Spider-Man: Homecoming finally opens next weekend, and it obviously isWonder Woman's most "direct" competition. How much are we expecting the Patty Jenkins-helmed hit to drop for the weekend once hurricane Spidey hits?

People thought GOTG2 would suffer because WW opened and it held on just fine. WW is doing way better than GOTG2 in terms of legs/reception so I'm expecting it to hold on pretty well.