Weekend Thread 7/7-7/9 | ABSOLUTELY NO SPOILERS ALLOWED | SMH 117M, DM3 34M, BD 12.5M, WW 10.1M, TF5 6.3M, Biggus Dickus 3.65

[McNerdy]

Meh, would it really be that surprising for Homecoming to not have a spectacular OW? It's the 6th spider-man movie in a relatively short time, with the former three movies being perceived as "mediocre". People were getting a bit tired of spider man because of that. The marketing also wasn't really that good to be honest..my friend at first didn't want to see it because she didn't like the trailers.

 

Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if it has a box-office run like WW: OW on the lower side with good legs due to WOM. I don't see apes, dunkirk, or valerian being that much competition. 

[Zakiyyah6]

Giving it an 18% drop and getting 117.5mil. That's close to my 120mil prediction so I'm happy. 

 

I don't know, my pie-in-the-sky predictions went by the wayside a while ago so I'm not really freaked out by the opening weekend. Did I think it was going to be hitting more like near 130mil? Sure with what that Friday number I did  but it's more front-loaded than I thought.  The movie's marketing was so focused on the teenage angle that I just wouldn't be surprised if a lot of younger people rushed to see it on Friday and this Saturday is the result of that rush. 

[Jack]

21 minutes ago, McNerdy said:

Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if it has a box-office run like WW: OW on the lower side with good legs due to WOM. I don't see apes, dunkirk, or valerian being that much competition. 

I'll be super surprised if it has WW legs. WOM will be good but not the phenomenally good like WW. 

 

WW is not just a SH movie with great WOM and 90%+ RT. It is wayyyyy more than that.

It's also female-driven, it's original, it's a DC surprise, and it has great marketing afterwards.

[Cochofles]

32 minutes ago, Jack said:

I'll be super surprised if it has WW legs. WOM will be good but not the phenomenally good like WW. 

 

WW is not just a SH movie with great WOM and 90%+ RT. It is wayyyyy more than that.

It's also female-driven, it's original, it's a DC surprise, and it has great marketing afterwards.

 

True. The thing to consider is that at the end of the day, SM:H is "just" another solidly crafted MCU film starring a popular superhero. WW has become a pop culture phenomenon due to many reasons that add to the buzz. It's a perfect storm of awareness that includes solid marketing, critical raves after a string of DCEU RT duds, several sociopolitical "firsts," media saturation, scholarly analysis, feminist debates, think pieces, even a much-buzzed-about,  instantly iconic scene (No Man's Land), all of which add to the must-see feel—which has fueled the WOM. Spider-Man will be a huge hit, but WW is on an entirely different level of ”why” it’s a huge hit (oddly enough, akin to the first Spidey film in 2002). 

Edited July 9, 2017 by Cochofles

[miketheavenger]

Spider-Man was a little more frontloaded than expected, but a weekend around 117m is nothing to sneeze at. Slightly higher than Raimi's SM1 (I know that was 15 years ago, but still). It's going to have Marvel-typical legs, so around 320-330m total I think.

[Zakiyyah6]

I'm sure the legs will be fine but I think fans are setting themselves up for heartache if they are expecting a Wonder Woman style run.

[ArrowOfTime]

3 hours ago, PPZVGOS said:

 

Anyone looking for female heroines/icons, Pfeiffer's Selina Kyle/Catwoman exceeds Gadot's Wonder Woman by several orders of magnitude. 

 

Edited July 9, 2017 by ArrowOfTime
format

[baumer]

What page are RRTH numbers on for you guys?

[YM!]

26 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

I'm sure the legs will be fine but I think fans are setting themselves up for heartache if they are expecting a Wonder Woman style run.

Agreed. I don't think another CBM will have a multiplier like Wonder Woman. The one that has the best chance is Black Panther and that itself is a wild overprediction. Animated Spidee-Man can have a 4x multiple due to Christmas legs but I don't think it'd count.

[famekillss]

2 minutes ago, baumer said:

What page are RRTH numbers on for you guys?

180

[baumer]

5 hours ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

This is not a good sign for Spidey. Now its hard to reach 325M . 

There is a lot of competition

 

But this just means there was a massive rush to see it.  I don't think this really means much right now.  Wait until the 2nd weekend.

[MCKillswitch123]

That sounds on the frontloaded side, but I assume it'll go up (kinda how the Thursday and Friday numbers went gradually over initial estimates).

 

8 hours ago, Rey said:

Why do you care when I'm rooting for my girl, Cara, in Valerian?

 

 

 

Yeeeeeee, more people rooting for Valerian, baybay. LET'S MAKE THAT SHIT GROSS 300M OM OW

[baumer]

4 hours ago, Jack said:

I'll be super surprised if it has WW legs. WOM will be good but not the phenomenally good like WW. 

 

WW is not just a SH movie with great WOM and 90%+ RT. It is wayyyyy more than that.

It's also female-driven, it's original, it's a DC surprise, and it has great marketing afterwards.

 

Nothing is going to have WW legs.  WW legs are unheard of for comic book films post DVD expansion.

[Zakiyyah6]

Those updated numbers were posted only a little while ago I seriously doubt that Saturday's going to shoot up to 40 million. Seems like there's some deep denial about the front loading. It's not unprecedented for a comic book movie to be front-loaded during its opening weekend.

Edited July 9, 2017 by Zakiyyah6

[cory]

Another sub-40% weekend drop for WW, and against its first direct competition no less.

[miketheavenger]

The only MCU films that managed a 3x were Iron Man, Avengers, GotG 1 and Ant-Man. It's doubtful that Spider-Man joins them, but again a 2.6-2.8x would be really good and pretty much guarantees for the sequel to increase (provided it's also good, of course).

[fabiopazzo2]

8 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

But this just means there was a massive rush to see it.  I don't think this really means much right now.  Wait until the 2nd weekend.

Yes and let's see the week!

[baumer]

So WW is going to be at about 369 after Sunday.  It needs another 31 million to hit 400.  It's coming off about a 10.5 weekend.  That means it needs about a 3 multiplier to hit 400.

 

[Napoleon]

With those Spider-man numbers, Wonder Woman locks the Summer crown.

 

[MCKillswitch123]

She already had it locked cause SM was never gonna hit her numbers (OW aside).

 

Also, where do you check the most well liked posts stuff?