Tuesday Numbers : DUNKIRK:$2.74M | EM:$2.58M | TDT:$2.44M | GT:$1.67M | SMH:$1.66M | KIDNAP:$1.45M........ WW:$400M YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY

[The Panda]

6 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

JLaw. Her power.

 

IT's OD could potentially be over mother! DOM 

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

I'm predicting 55/125 for It. How is that not good? It is an entirely different horror beast to predict.

 

It's more you overpredicting mother! than you underpredicting It.  You act like It doesn't have a lot more going for it than mother!, because it does.

[cookie]

Mother! would be lucky if it makes $50m.

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, That Floating Guy said:

 

It's more you overpredicting mother! than you underpredicting It.  You act like It doesn't have a lot more going for it than mother!, because it does.

I'm not? Like, It has a fuckton of buzz going for it, but so does mother! I question exactly how wide It can reach all corners of the GA sinply because the film looks heavy on jumpscares. Both trailers for It have been reliant on jumpscares for the horror element. People who don't like jumpscares won't be willing to go out of their wheelhouse for a type of horror they don't like. I'm not saying mother! might not hit all corners of the GA either (there's a good chance it doesn't), but mother! is more psychological based on the trailers. That's more accessible to a non or mild horror fan. 

[AndyK]

2 hours ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

It's a shame that War for the Planet of the Apes didn't do as spectacular as we thought it would despite very high praise from critics & audience alike. 😞

 

You got other animal/creature-feature films that did very well on their own in the past years, like Godzilla, Kong: Skull Island & even the biggest one of all: Jurassic World.

 

Very saddening that WFTPOTA didn't do bigger numbers, and not live to its huge box office potential. 😥

 

I see a shift away from GrimDark, the public today want cinema to take them away from that.

[Alli]

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

The trailer was still trending on YT this morning. All it needs is good reviews and good WOM to explode. Paramount is nailing the secrecy of it.

will the strategy work? it's paramount after all.

 

if its a good movie i could see some good legs, but my guess is that it will be divisive. black swan barely made 100M and that had oscar hype.

[KJsooner]

Wasn't their a couple dudes on here who didn't think Spidey would reach 300 million?

 

lol

 

[AndyK]

23 minutes ago, iJackSparrow said:

I'll take a stab at this, but only the top 10 (Unreleased titles bold):

 

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi: $870m

2. Beauty and the Beast: $504m

3. Wonder Woman: $411m

4. Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2: $390m

5. Justice League: $385m 

6. Spider-Man: Homecoming: $329m

7. Thor: Ragnarok: $314m

8. Despicable Me 3: $268m

9. Coco: $240m

10. Blade Runner 2049: $234m

 

I think people are selling Blade Runner 2049 short, and I do think it has a mix of novelty/nostalgia/hot director that will make it breakout. 

 

Yeah, I was going to say, everyone was way too low on Bladerunner, no way is it doing less than 200m, but you have Thor too low, I think that will do 350.

[Ethan Hunt]

I feel like maybe Fury Road numbers for 2049

[Barnack]

2 minutes ago, Alli said:

will the strategy work? it's paramount after all.

 

if its a good movie i could see some good legs, but my guess is that it will be divisive. black swan barely made 100M and that had oscar hype.

Black swan was a 13m movie, the low P&A strategy (if it stay that low, look like they are maybe going for an extremelly small 10m domestic release budget), Black Swan being a total success bar with a strategy that they would considered worked great was probably around 35m domestic (I imagine mother! is around that great return point also), specially considering that the director track record is making twice oversea than domestic with is movies.

 

The big difference is IT is certain to be a monster, it will open like crazy, the actual movie is not irrelevant but close too, it will open no matter what even it is has 0 on RT.

 

Maybe Mother! will be a surprise hit and do 5+ times it's budget domestic alone, but it need to have legs, to have festival buzz, etc... IT is a done deal.

[YM!]

mother! seems too obscure for the GA, sure the trailer is gaining buzz but JL has a huge fanbase.

[Alli]

1 minute ago, Barnack said:

Black swan was a 13m movie, the low P&A strategy (if it stay that low, look like they are maybe going for an extremelly small 10m domestic release budget), Black Swan being a total success bar with a strategy that they would considered worked great was probably around 35m domestic (I imagine mother! is around that great return point also), specially considering that the director track record is making twice oversea than domestic with is movies.

 

The big difference is IT is certain to be a monster, it will open like crazy, the actual movie is not irrelevant but close too, it will open no matter what even it is has 0 on RT.

 

Maybe Mother! will be a surprise hit and do 5+ times it's budget domestic alone, but it need to have legs, to have festival buzz, etc... IT is a done deal.

why are people so confident IT will break out big even if it's not a good movie? the other King adaptation The dark tower disappointed the other weekend.

[That One Girl]

12 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I'm not? Like, It has a fuckton of buzz going for it, but so does mother! I question exactly how wide It can reach all corners of the GA sinply because the film looks heavy on jumpscares. Both trailers for It have been reliant on jumpscares for the horror element. People who don't like jumpscares won't be willing to go out of their wheelhouse for a type of horror they don't like. I'm not saying mother! might not hit all corners of the GA either (there's a good chance it doesn't), but mother! is more psychological based on the trailers. That's more accessible to a non or mild horror fan. 

 

1. You're acting like mother! is even fucking comparable to It's buzz at all.  It's not.  It smashed trailer view records and has far more buzz than mother!.  It's like comparing Guardians of the Galaxy's box office to TFA's box office.

 

2. Sure it has jumpscares in the trailers, but will that really turn people off when the book It is as famous as it is and when it can crossover to multiple generations?  Also, mother! looks far more niche than It.  Just because it doesn't have jumpscares in the trailer doesn't mean audiences will be more open to it.  If you showed an average audience member the trailers for both movies back to back, you bet your ass most people would pick It over mother!.

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, Alli said:

the other King adaptation The dark tower disappointed the other weekend.

 

lmaoooo

[XO21]

Folks are overconfident about IT, $50m OW is a good target but nothing is guaranteed after that...trailers views are misleading

Edited August 9, 2017 by XO21

[ZattMurdock]

6 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

I feel like maybe Fury Road numbers for 2049

Mad Max is less of a cult movie than Blade Runner. If Max can make to $150m, Blade Runner can cross $200m. 

[Alli]

2 minutes ago, XO21 said:

Folks are overconfident about IT, $50m OW is a good target but nothing is guaranteed after that...trailers views are misleading

yeap.  The mummy had the same number of views as IT first trailer.  30M views. It still bombed

[That One Girl]

Also @WrathOfHan

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2017/08/08/box-office-it-could-be-stephen-kings-biggest-movie-ever/#7266a93271c9

 

Quote

I’ve spoken before about how the adaptation of what is essentially half of King’s mammoth 1,000+ page novel has a shot at being the proverbial Beauty and the Beast of horror movies. By that I mean that it is playing on nostalgia toward multiple generations of moviegoers who discovered the property through multiple venues (the book or the 1990 ABC mini-series) at various points in their lives. And even dissociated from the source material, It is still a big-ish budget (around $35-$40m), R-rated, 135-minute horror spectacular concerning young kids from the 1980’s doing battle with a scary clown. That would be the event movie of the Halloween season even if it wasn’t based on an iconic novel.

Quote

The reason I'm so high on the film is that it's one of those rare titles that folks of all stripes are aware of and have a genuine interest in well before the release date. I've seen this before with titles like The LEGO Movie, The Secret Life of Pets and Guardians of the Galaxy. Since I spend most of my time either with the wife/kids or with those in the Film Nerd world, it stands out when a film gets the kind of attention from outside of the bubble that I've seen with It.  I'm seeing something there that wasn't there before.

 

[ZattMurdock]

It came from LRM, and I think that used to be Latino Review, but the graphic is interesting:

 

 

$174.5m profit for Homecoming, $282.5m for Wonder Woman and $277m for Guardians Vol. 2, not sure how accurate this is, but it's an interesting reading:

 

http://lrmonline.com/news/the-summer-box-office-which-movies-made-money-which-movies-flopped-we-break-it-down

[Alli]

4 minutes ago, iJackSparrow said:

Mad Max is less of a cult movie than Blade Runner. If Max can make to $150m, Blade Runner can cross $200m. 

that right there says it all. a cult movie is unpopular with mainstream audiences.  didn't the original flop? sure, it gained a following, but not a mainstream one

Edited August 9, 2017 by Alli