The Panda Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said: I'm thinking: Shape of Water: 35% Three Billboards: 35% Get Out: 20% Lady Bird: 10% The last two's underperformance at BAFTA raises some red flags, but Lady Bird also didn't win anything at BFCA, which has never happened to a BP winner. The only thing going in its favor is preferential voting. Except that BFCA trend is pretty irrelevant. Sure, it’s a trend but BFCA doesn’t have major bearing on how the academy will vote. Missing an easy SAG nod (especially when Big Sick could easily have traded for Shape of Water) is a bigger issue imo than missing a BFCA win or even missing a BAFTA nod. I do think missing the BAFTA nod is a troubling sign, but there’s more precedence of movies missing a BAFTA nod and winning then SAG. Plus, more SAG voters are academy voters than BAFTA voters. Plus, something to consider with PGA. You can’t tell how close those preferential ballots won. It could be a 2015 case where Big Short likely barey edged out a win. If the full PGA is behind SoW then it’s a big factor, but if it’s only a slim majority (through the perefential ballot too, at that) then it’s not a secure spot for it. I think we’ll be able to gage more if SoW picks up a few big wins like BAFTA, DGA (which I’m betting on, but wouldn’t say is a guarantee), WGA or ACE. It probably needs at least two more ‘big’ wins to be in a frontrunner position. That being said, I wouldn’t count out either four, and I wouldn’t say any of them are in a comfortable win position. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsoft Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 7 minutes ago, New Year New Panda said: Except in each of those cases they lost. Id actually say SoW is the least likely to break that stat (along with Revenant) simply because at least LLL sand Gravity weren’t ensemble movies. Missing Best Ensemble as a very ensemble centric movie is a troubling sign for actor branch support. If anything, I think PGA and DGA are slowly becoming less sure sign indicators of a frontrunner. True, but I was talking about if we continue to see such strong contenders missing SAG nomination, at some point one of them will get a win. I think the key is winning PGA + DGA with the "frontrunner" with the SAG nomination being more divisive, a more interesting situation would be having the PGA + DGA + WGA winner missing SAG nomination, that'll challenge the stat to the greatest extent. I agree that TSOW is less likely to break the stat than Gravity/LLL. However, I think the mentality of "this film is even weaker stat wise than such and such, and even that couldn't win" can be a bit misleading. I was thinking the same last year, if Moonlight couldn't even defeat hidden figures in SAG, how could a it (lone WGA winner) win against LLL, the PGA + DGA + BFCA + BAFTA + Globes winner with 14 nominations? Of course, that's exactly what happened. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 1 hour ago, NCsoft said: True, but I was talking about if we continue to see such strong contenders missing SAG nomination, at some point one of them will get a win. I think the key is winning PGA + DGA with the "frontrunner" with the SAG nomination being more divisive, a more interesting situation would be having the PGA + DGA + WGA winner missing SAG nomination, that'll challenge the stat to the greatest extent. I agree that TSOW is less likely to break the stat than Gravity/LLL. However, I think the mentality of "this film is even weaker stat wise than such and such, and even that couldn't win" can be a bit misleading. I was thinking the same last year, if Moonlight couldn't even defeat hidden figures in SAG, how could a it (lone WGA winner) win against LLL, the PGA + DGA + BFCA + BAFTA + Globes winner with 14 nominations? Of course, that's exactly what happened. It doesn’t have to do with winning the SAG, it has to do with a nomination. A nomination shows broad support, a win shows some passion. Broad support matters more for preferential ballot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BardCrank Posted January 21, 2018 Share Posted January 21, 2018 The only time a movie won best picture without being nominated for SAG best ensemble was 1995 which was the first year for the ensemble award , since then every BP winner was nominated TSOW won Critics choice , PGA and most probably DGA . it will be fighting 3B for the Bafta and it has an uphill battle ( lost , most likely ) for the WGA against Lady Bird ( or maybe get out ? ) The acting branch is very significant and right now it seems that 3B and Lady bird have the most support here but they are coming up short on other branches will all of this support from different branches be enough to make up for the lack of support from the acting branch ? No idea , but TSOW is definitely top 3 right now , it could possibly creep up to top 2 after announcing the WGA , DGA and BAFTA awards Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joel M Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 I think last year was the first time the SAG stat became a big oscar race argument. And it happened because it was the only way you could argue that this race wasn't over. But by the end of that oscar race everyone was pretty much sure that the SAG stat will finally break and LLL will win because the unbreakable stat until then was that you have to get at least one of PGA/DGA/SAG win to get BP. In the end we were all wrong, Moonlight broke the unbreakable stat and now winning the big guilds is irrelevant and the SAG ensemble nomination is all that matters. I agree that SOW doesn't look like it will win BP but not because of a stupid stat. This year feels like a "statement" year (for the oscars and Hollywood in general) even more than 2016 because of Weinstein and SOW just isn't that so I think one of 3B/LB will prevail in the end even if SOW sweeps almost everything before oscar night. But that stupid stat will eventually break like every other stat before it, and then we can all argue about why a BFCA supporting actor nomination is really what locks a BP winner. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rorschach Posted January 22, 2018 Share Posted January 22, 2018 @WrathOfHan Feels weird knowing that Mother! is a Razzie nominated film now 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsoft Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 (edited) 8 hours ago, Joel M said: I agree that SOW doesn't look like it will win BP but not because of a stupid stat. This year feels like a "statement" year (for the oscars and Hollywood in general) even more than 2016 because of Weinstein and SOW just isn't that so I think one of 3B/LB will prevail in the end even if SOW sweeps almost everything before oscar night. But that stupid stat will eventually break like every other stat before it, and then we can all argue about why a BFCA supporting actor nomination is really what locks a BP winner. For the sake of keeping the Oscar race interesting I hope that stat breaks, because if it doesn't, no matter how exciting the best picture races are shaping up to be, come SAG nomination day, the BP choices are quickly narrowed down to 2 or 3 films (since they'll always nominate something like The Big Sick and Mudbound). That's where the fun kind of stops. This year, that was the moment of declaring CMBYN, The Post, TSOW and Dunkirk "dead", suddenly the race becomes fairly clear and it's easy to figure out, Get out and Lady Bird could put up a fight but soon we realize that they're all missing important nomination from The Globes and BAFTA and they're not winning enough. The film that wins quite a bit (TSOW) doesn't have the SAG nomination, so it's LLL, Gravity and The Revenant all over again. Edited January 23, 2018 by NCsoft Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsoft Posted January 23, 2018 Share Posted January 23, 2018 Regarding this year being a "message" year, I definitely agree that TSOW is not as fitting of a winner as 3BB, Lady Bird, and Get Out. But we know preferential ballot can be unpredictable (PGA has shown that again), and it's hard under that kind of voting system to collectively orient toward a goal (to send a message of feminism or anti-racism etc.), because it's not just a popular contest anymore, it's more of the "least divisive" contest. Since the preferential ballot thing started, the BP winner that's been the most divisive is probably Birdman, but that's a triple crown winner (PGA, SAG, DGA), which we know three billboards is not getting. Three billboard will head into the Oscars with Globe drama + SAG winner as the only guild win + maybe BAFTA, that's kind of a new situation. There's going to be some level of suspense until the BP envelope opens, unless if Three billboards miraculously wins DGA or something, then it's completely done. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 Dunkirk and I, Tonya won the ACE for their respective categories. They're definitely our top 2 at the Oscars 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BardCrank Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 London Critics Film Circle awards FILM OF THE YEAR Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM OF THE YEAR Elle DOCUMENTARY OF THE YEAR I Am Not Your Negro BRITISH/IRISH FILM OF THE YEAR: The Attenborough Award Dunkirk DIRECTOR OF THE YEAR Sean Baker – The Florida Project SCREENWRITER OF THE YEAR Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri ACTRESS OF THE YEAR: Sponsored by Heaven Skincare Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri ACTOR OF THE YEAR Timothée Chalamet – Call Me By Your Name SUPPORTING ACTRESS OF THE YEAR Lesley Manville – Phantom Thread SUPPORTING ACTOR OF THE YEAR Hugh Grant – Paddington 2 BRITISH/IRISH ACTRESS OF THE YEAR Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water/Maudie/Paddington 2 BRITISH/IRISH ACTOR OF THE YEAR Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out ( Jesus , they must really hate Oldman ) YOUNG BRITISH/IRISH PERFORMER OF THE YEAR Harris Dickinson – Beach Rats BREAKTHROUGH BRITISH/IRISH FILMMAKER Francis Lee – God’s Own Country BRITISH/IRISH SHORT FILM OF THE YEAR We Love Moses – Dionne Edwards TECHNICAL ACHIEVEMENT AWARD Blade Runner 2049 – Dennis Gassner, production design EXCELLENCE IN FILM: The Dilys Powell Award Kate Winslet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aabattery Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Hugh Grant win is good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
That One Girl Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 4 hours ago, BardCrank said: EXCELLENCE IN FILM: The Dilys Powell Award Kate Winslet Winning for her stunning performances in Wonder Wheel and The Mountain Between Us Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 (edited) 10 minutes ago, That One Guy said: Winning for her stunning performances in Wonder Wheel and The Mountain Between Us And her flop press tour for Wonder Wheel where she talked about how wonderful working with Woody Allen was lmao. Edited January 29, 2018 by filmlover Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnack Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 I think it is a career type of award, not for the last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BardCrank Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 8 hours ago, aabattery said: Hugh Grant win is good. No it is not 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aabattery Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 1 minute ago, BardCrank said: No it is not Yes it is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BardCrank Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 39 minutes ago, aabattery said: Yes it is. No it is not 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aabattery Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 15 minutes ago, BardCrank said: No it is not Yes it is. (Good discourse) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Panda Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 4 hours ago, aabattery said: Yes it is. (Good discourse) Yes it’s not. No, it is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted February 4, 2018 Share Posted February 4, 2018 And DGA goes to...del Toro. First-time director award went to Peele. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
