Tuesday Numbers: Jumanji 10.2, TLJ 7.9 (Asgard)

[a2k]

Jumanji went over Dunkirk with that Tue and crossed 195 dom. By Sunday it will go over the mid-220s trifecta of F8, JL and Logan for #9 on the dom chart.

DM3 at least will fall next giving #8 to Jumanji. Thor3 at #7 is not safe either.

But SMH and IT at #5 and #6 at least look out of harm's way for now with 327-334 totals which will require bigger shenanigans from Jumanji.

Edited January 3, 2018 by a2knet

[vc2002]

3rd Tue

TFA  7.9m

R1 6.2m

[JonathanLB]

This could be a shitty analysis, but if we were at all correct about holidays I would expect the weekday performance to be more similar to TFA in raw dollars (as you see Tuesday) and the weekend bump to be more similar to Rogue One, because when you're coming off more holiday-like weekdays of course you have smaller percentage increases on Friday and Saturday. Say more like in the 50% bump range on Friday and then again on Saturday, not the nearly 80% bumps TFA got. 

 

It's tough to analyze accurately, though, if you look at Rogue One, it made LESS (slightly) on Friday than it did on Tuesday, but TFA made about 25% more Friday than it did Tuesday. So I don't know if "splitting the difference" is a very good way to analyze anything, really. If you did say Friday was $8M for TLJ then maybe a $12.5M Saturday and an $8.5M Sunday for $29M. Or maybe optimistically $9M Friday, $13.5M Saturday, $11.5M Sunday for $34M. 

 

Good for Jumanji, but ultimately it's making something adversarial that isn't. TLJ is competing with legends, not Jumanji. I'm not trying to be a pill but TLJ didn't open the same day as Jumanji and that film is no threat to anything Star Wars, so whatever it does is great in my opinion, it doesn't take away from TLJ. I think if people wanted to see Star Wars, they would, and many people like me saw both and enjoyed both.

Edited January 3, 2018 by JonathanLB

[Brainbug]

These numbers say more about Jumanji than TLJ. TLJ is having relatively normal drops, while Jumanji just keeps posting incredible holds. Its a monster.

Edited January 3, 2018 by Brainbug

[redfirebird2008]

10 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

This could be a shitty analysis, but if we were at all correct about holidays I would expect the weekday performance to be more similar to TFA in raw dollars (as you see Tuesday) and the weekend bump to be more similar to Rogue One, because when you're coming off more holiday-like weekdays of course you have smaller percentage increases on Friday and Saturday. Say more like in the 50% bump range on Friday and then again on Saturday, not the nearly 80% bumps TFA got. 

 

It's tough to analyze accurately, though, if you look at Rogue One, it made LESS (slightly) on Friday than it did on Tuesday, but TFA made about 25% more Friday than it did Tuesday. So I don't know if "splitting the difference" is a very good way to analyze anything, really. If you did say Friday was $8M for TLJ then maybe a $12.5M Saturday and an $8.5M Sunday for $29M. Or maybe optimistically $9M Friday, $13.5M Saturday, $11.5M Sunday for $34M. 

 

Good for Jumanji, but ultimately it's making something adversarial that isn't. TLJ is competing with legends, not Jumanji. I'm not trying to be a pill but TLJ didn't open the same day as Jumanji and that film is no threat to anything Star Wars, so whatever it does is great in my opinion, it doesn't take away from TLJ. I think if people wanted to see Star Wars, they would, and many people like me saw both and enjoyed both.

 

TLJ will drop over 50% on 4th weekend just like TFA and Rogue One. Your $34m prediction is extremely optimistic at only 35% drop. Last weekend was boosted by holidays and so is this Tuesday number. 

Edited January 3, 2018 by redfirebird2008

[JonathanLB]

Exactly, I'm happy with the TLJ number, I didn't look at the numbers and get annoyed Jumanji was doing better. It's on its own course by this point, doing its thing, and I really enjoyed the movie a lot so I'm happy for everyone involved. I was no less happy with the TLJ number honestly, I think it's a good number. You want closer to TFA and not Rogue One from this point forward, and this number accomplishes that. 

 

After this following weekend, Rogue One made a further $55M. TFA made $124M more. If TLJ had $30M for next weekend (Rogue One $22M), it would be at roughly $580M. A similar multiple from the weekend to Rogue One would be $75M left in the tank for $655M. Puts it close to JW and Titanic, either between them, below both slightly, above both slightly, but keeps for a "fun" time tracking it well into the future. 

[IronJimbo]

21 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Colossal hit

Thats two words!

[baumer]

I know my 30% drop for Jumanji is unrealistically low.  But it could also be that we are witnessing a very special run.  I know 2006 is eons ago in terms of box office, but NATM only declined by 35% on the same weekend.  If Jumanji is having as special a run as it looks like it is, then at this point, nothing would surprise me. 

[Elessar]

5 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

If TLJ had $30M for next weekend (Rogue One $22M)

Why would TLJ have such a bigger 4th weekend than RO when their respective 3rd weekend was neck and neck and TLJ has been exhibiting worse drops. Doesn't make any sense....

Edited January 3, 2018 by Elessar

[grey ghost]

4 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Thats two words!

Colossal-hit

[JonathanLB]

3 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

TLJ will drop over 50% on 4th weekend just like TFA and Rogue One. Your $34m prediction is extremely optimistic at only 35% drop. Last weekend was boosted by holidays and so is this Tuesday number. 

I didn't say it wasn't, I said I thought $29M or so was more likely than $34M. That would be what I'd file under "extremely optimistic," given that it's literally the ceiling of what could even be possible. When you define a floor and a ceiling, you don't think either one is statistically likely. So if the range is let's say $24M to $34M, then I don't think either result is going to happen, and find it more likely to be in the middle ($29M) by far. A 50% drop would be $26M, which in my opinion is on the low end.

 

Last weekend had NYE on Sunday, this next Sunday doesn't. The drop therefore would be expected to be less harsh than a given Sunday to Sunday drop. If this week is at all affected by holidays, which it apparently is as evidenced by Tuesday, the Friday to Friday drop would also be less severe. That leaves only Saturday virtually unaffected. 

 

What do you think it does in dailies then? I can't see under $7.5M for Friday, and let's say $11.5M Saturday is about a 50% bump, and $8M Sunday is $27M. To me, that looks like a realistic set of numbers at the lower end.

 

 

[grey ghost]

The last movie I underpredicted as bad as Jumanji was Wonder Woman.

 

Predicted around 160 m for Wonder Woman and 90 m for Jumanji. 

[baumer]

3 hours ago, JonathanLB said:

I didn't say it wasn't, I said I thought $29M or so was more likely than $34M. That would be what I'd file under "extremely optimistic," given that it's literally the ceiling of what could even be possible. When you define a floor and a ceiling, you don't think either one is statistically likely. So if the range is let's say $24M to $34M, then I don't think either result is going to happen, and find it more likely to be in the middle ($29M) by far. A 50% drop would be $26M, which in my opinion is on the low end.

 

Last weekend had NYE on Sunday, this next Sunday doesn't. The drop therefore would be expected to be less harsh than a given Sunday to Sunday drop. If this week is at all affected by holidays, which it apparently is as evidenced by Tuesday, the Friday to Friday drop would also be less severe. That leaves only Saturday virtually unaffected. 

 

What do you think it does in dailies then? I can't see under $7.5M for Friday, and let's say $11.5M Saturday is about a 50% bump, and $8M Sunday is $27M. To me, that looks like a realistic set of numbers at the lower end.

 

 

 

That's just north of a 50% drop and looks much more realistic imo.

[IronJimbo]

7 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

After this following weekend, Rogue One made a further $55M. TFA made $124M more. If TLJ had $30M for next weekend (Rogue One $22M), it would be at roughly $580M. A similar multiple from the weekend to Rogue One would be $75M left in the tank for $655M. Puts it close to JW and Titanic, either between them, below both slightly, above both slightly,j but keeps for a "fun" time tracking it well into the future. 

 

Just as TLJ wasn't making 800m then wasn't beating Avatar then wasn't making 700m, it won't be beating Titanic.

 

Every cookie cooker that passes Titanic does so underservingly, using past films glory and years of ticket inflation.

 

I'm happy for you guys that it's not passed Titanic but I suppse the ticket price difference will be getting too big. Atleast for now Titanic deserves to beat out marvels and star wars.

[baumer]

3 hours ago, grey ghost said:

The last movie I underpredicted as bad as Jumanji was Wonder Woman.

 

Predicted around 160 m for Wonder Woman and 90 m for Jumanji. 

 

I predicted 160 for Jumanji and will still be off by about 10000%

[Brainbug]

Its also worth noting that TLJ will have grossed more in its first 9 Days (350M) than Jumanji will in its entire run (340M is high-end for me, an incredible result). Jumanji is benefiting from the fact that it is a fresh brand for many moviegoers - like, the original is a known film, but its not a classic by any means. Comparing the daily numbers of both films now, when TLJ is one week older and already burned of 500M+ $ worth of demand, seems a little unfair to me.

[Elessar]

3 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

I didn't say it wasn't, I said I thought $29M or so was more likely than $34M. That would be what I'd file under "extremely optimistic," given that it's literally the ceiling of what could even be possible. When you define a floor and a ceiling, you don't think either one is statistically likely. So if the range is let's say $24M to $34M, then I don't think either result is going to happen, and find it more likely to be in the middle ($29M) by far. A 50% drop would be $26M, which in my opinion is on the low end.

The floor should be lower than RO's 4th weekend. $24m actually is the more likely outcome...

Edited January 3, 2018 by Elessar

[redfirebird2008]

2 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

I didn't say it wasn't, I said I thought $29M or so was more likely than $34M. That would be what I'd file under "extremely optimistic," given that it's literally the ceiling of what could even be possible. When you define a floor and a ceiling, you don't think either one is statistically likely. So if the range is let's say $24M to $34M, then I don't think either result is going to happen, and find it more likely to be in the middle ($29M) by far. A 50% drop would be $26M, which in my opinion is on the low end.

 

Last weekend had NYE on Sunday, this next Sunday doesn't. The drop therefore would be expected to be less harsh than a given Sunday to Sunday drop. If this week is at all affected by holidays, which it apparently is as evidenced by Tuesday, the Friday to Friday drop would also be less severe. That leaves only Saturday virtually unaffected. 

 

What do you think it does in dailies then? I can't see under $7.5M for Friday, and let's say $11.5M Saturday is about a 50% bump, and $8M Sunday is $27M. To me, that looks like a realistic set of numbers at the lower end.

 

 

 

The New Year's Eve drop was actually better than what most films see outside of holiday periods. It dropped 31.9%, which is not bad. When school and work are fully in session, it is pretty normal for movies to drop 35-45% on Sunday. 

 

Your $29m prediction is very optimistic too. You say it's middle ground. I'm calling it flat out optimistic. That's a 44.8% drop when TFA dropped 53% and Rogue dropped 55%. The movie is boosted by a lot of kids out of school right now and that's going to hurt the Friday/Saturday increases. 

[baumer]

2 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

 

Just as TLJ wasn't making 800m then wasn't beating Avatar then wasn't making 700m, it won't be beating Titanic.

 

Every cookie cooker that passes Titanic does so underservingly, using past films glory and years of ticket inflation.

 

I'm happy for you guys that it's not passed Titanic but I suppse the ticket price difference will be getting too big. Atleast for now Titanic deserves to beat out marvels and star wars.

 

I love love love love Titanic.  And its run was something special.  There's no denying that.

 

But let's be fair.  Titanic didn't have to deal with streaming, Android boxes and other kinds of illegal downloading that stunts a films box office like it does today.  I'm taking absolutely nothing away from Titanic, it's in my top 15 films of all time.  But it came out in an era of box office that is so so very different than what we have today.  It's fine if you want to sing Titanic's praises all the time, but let's be fair.  Maybe if TFA or R1 or TLJ came out in 1997, they would have done even more than they did in their runs.  

 

You have a very biased view of Titanic and Avatar, you rarely tell both sides of the story.

[MCKillswitch123]

If someone told me, after Baywatch, that Jumanji 2 was going to cross 300M DOM, that it was going to outgross every single movie of the fall + holidays (except Star Wars, probably It and possibly Thor), and that it was going to demolish Justice League and Pitch Perfect 3 DOM, I would've called you an insane lunatic.

 

Even after Get Out pulled the upset of the year, even after Wonder Woman did 4x its opening, even after It did superhero tentpole numbers for an R-rated horror movie, even after Justice League collapsed in of itself, I wouldn't have believed that Jumanji would even do half of what it's gonna go. But here we are. This is the story of the holidays, for sure, and only behind those four (maybe three, if you think JL underperforming was predictable in hindsight) as the story of the year. Madness.

 

The Last Jedi.... oh well.