Weekend Thread | 3-day estimates (per BOM): J 27M, TP 18.6M, TC 13.45M, I:TLK 12.14M, TGS 11.8M, TLJ 11.28M, P2 10.62M, PM 10M

[MaxAggressor]

3 minutes ago, Matrix4You said:

yes, but what about The Dark Knight though?

He will be sent to the Phantom Zone.  

[KP1025]

Not to take anything away from Jumanji's run, but TDK was a summer release.  Weekend increases are softer because of weekdays burning up demand. 

[MovieMan89]

Not only will TGS's 4th weekend slaughter its OW, its 5th weekend is pretty much locked to beat it too now. There is no other precedent for such a thing besides Titanic (as far as saturated releases go). 

[a2k]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

It's blowing past that. 350 should be a near lock again after that Sat hold. Holding better than Sing this weekend and Sing's 4th weekend multi gets it to 356.

350 is well locked. It's just 59 away from 350 after a 27-28 3-day. Adding 2x the 3-day more to it's run wold be below average. Even RO had added 2.5x the 3-day more to it's cume. That would give Jumanji 27.5*2.5 = 69 more for 69 + 291 = 360 dom. And that's with RO's legs which it has been comfortably beating by a huge margin.

 

I think Jumanji will add at least 3x the 3-day more for 291 + 83 = 374 dom beating SM2 and only behind SM1 on Sony's biggest unadjusted dom charts.

[Mojoguy]

Not to take anything away from Jumanji's run, but TDK was a summer release. Weekend increases are softer because of weekdays burning up demand.

Jumanji had Christmas holiday, which was basically 12 Fridays in a row.

[MovieMan89]

Just now, a2knet said:

350 is well locked. It's just 59 away from 350 after a 27-28 3-day. Adding 2x the 3-day more to it's run wold be below average. Even RO had added 2.5x the 3-day more to it's cume. That would give Jumanji 27.5*2.5 = 69 more for 69 + 291 = 360 dom. And that's with RO's legs which it has been comfortably beating by a huge margin.

 

I think Jumanji will add at least 3x the 3-day more for 291 + 83 = 374 dom beating SM2 and only behind SM1 on Sony's biggest unadjusted dom charts.

I'm rooting for 400 at this point. The calendar is so barren the next few weeks it might actually do it. 

[KP1025]

Just now, Mojoguy said:

Jumanji had Christmas holiday, which was basically 12 Fridays in a row.

I was specifically referring to this weekend, where it will beat TDK's 4th weekend.

[Mojoguy]

I was specifically referring to this weekend, where it will beat TDK's 4th weekend.

I was pointing out Jumanj had a ton people watching in its first 12 days. Jumanji burned a ton of demand early on.

Edited January 14, 2018 by Mojoguy

[MaxAggressor]

Can anyone tell me how much ESB actually dropped from ANH?? I mean the non-adjusted drop in figures form Ep. IV to Ep. V is around 32% but it includes the immediate re-expansion figures & re-releases in '78, '79 etc for ANH, no?? In it's 1st run in theaters, ANH made a little over 220 million while ESB grossed 209.4 million. So ESB dropped 7% from ANH. Is it incorrect??

[MovieMan89]

6 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

Can anyone tell me how much ESB actually dropped from ANH?? I mean the non-adjusted drop in figures form Ep. IV to Ep. V is around 32% but it includes the immediate re-expansion figures & re-releases in '78, '79 etc for ANH, no?? In it's 1st run in theaters, ANH made a little over 220 million while ESB grossed 209.4 million. So ESB dropped 7% from ANH. Is it incorrect??

Hard to say because I don't know whether or not ESB had a similar type of re-expansion that got it to that 209 number. Anyone know? But yes, ANH's true 1st run is more like 220. 

[Arlborn]

19 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Not only will TGS's 4th weekend slaughter its OW, its 5th weekend is pretty much locked to beat it too now. There is no other precedent for such a thing besides Titanic (as far as saturated releases go). 

That's insane as well.

[KP1025]

6 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

I was pointing out Jumanj had a ton people watching in its first 12 days. Both TDK and Jumanji had stacked early days.

I agree. My point was more that at this point in their runs, Jumanji's gross is more heavily distributed to the weekends whereas TDK was still burning through summer weekdays. In terms of raw gross left, it's possible Jumanji adds the same amount after its 4th weekend (TDK added another $92 million after its 4th weekend).

[dxmatrixdt]

20 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Not only will TGS's 4th weekend slaughter its OW, its 5th weekend is pretty much locked to beat it too now. There is no other precedent for such a thing besides Titanic (as far as saturated releases go). 

Next weekend, TGS should average about $3,000 for 2,500 theaters.  7.5ish

[Mojoguy]

At this point Jumanji will be making more on weekends, while TDK makes more on weekdays.

[MovieMan89]

I think a cool goal post for Jumanji would be GotG2's 389m. If it beat that it would give all four stars their highest grosser DOM. And I find it pretty damn hilarious that Jumanji is gonna beat F7 as the Rock's biggest grosser DOM. 

Edited January 14, 2018 by MovieMan89

[Fancyarcher]

11 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Hard to say because I don't know whether or not ESB had a similar type of re-expansion that got it to that 209 number. Anyone know? But yes, ANH's true 1st run is more like 220. 

That $209m number is actually Empire's original gross, according to most reports, so it had a 11m drop from ANH, with a three year difference, and ticket prices haven't not risen much. 

Edited January 14, 2018 by Fancyarcher

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, Matrix4You said:

Next weekend, TGS should average about $3,000 for 2,500 theaters.  7.5ish

Why would it lost that many screens? Even if it did, I'll believe a 30%+ drop for TGS when I see it. Won't be surprised if it doesn't happen for many weeks yet. 

[BK007]

Just wanted to say, (before catching up on the early part of the thread) that Jumanji and TGS holds have very little to do with MoviePass, lol.

 

There is no evidence there. End of. Great WOM is propelling these films forward. Spectacular.

 

I enjoy these runs (even if the totals aren't all that record breaking) more than BIG movies that fizzle out quick.

[dxmatrixdt]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

Why would it lost that many screens? Even if it did, I'll believe a 30%+ drop for TGS when I see it. Won't be surprised if it doesn't happen for many weeks yet. 

because there is so much jam packed this weekend....  next weekend sees lots of new product. 

[dxmatrixdt]

Just now, BK007 said:

Just wanted to say, (before catching up on the early part of the thread) that Jumanji and TGS holds have very little to do with MoviePass, lol.

 

There is no evidence there. End of. Great WOM is propelling these films forward. Spectacular.

 

I enjoy these runs (even if the totals aren't all that record breaking) more than BIG movies that fizzle out quick.

what about Murder on the Orient Express, Wonder, and Daddy's Home 2 versus Justice League?