Weekend Thread | 3-day estimates (per BOM): J 27M, TP 18.6M, TC 13.45M, I:TLK 12.14M, TGS 11.8M, TLJ 11.28M, P2 10.62M, PM 10M

[Goffe]

5 hours ago, aabattery said:

 

I can do better than this.

 

Edit: 

weak.

[Krissykins]

Valerian bombed so badly that EuropaCorp are firing 28% of their staff. 

 

Deadline: https://t.co/r4sMCg9SUF

[dxmatrixdt]

10 minutes ago, Matrix4You said:

predicted Sunday 9.1875 for 27.37 weekend.

Jumanji's Monday -13% = 7.7

Tues 2.7  + 1.69 + 1.69 = 297.28 million

 

predicted 5th weekend

$17,322,771 (-36.7%)

314.60 total

more likely this alternate number for 5th weekend

$16,240,098 (-40.7%) - 313.52

the average is 16.78, 314.04 total. after 5th weekend.

Edited January 15, 2018 by Matrix4You

[filmlover]

Just now, Krissykins said:

Valerian bombed so badly that EuropaCorp are firing 28% of their staff. 

 

Deadline: https://t.co/r4sMCg9SUF

Renegades will never see the light of day.

[dxmatrixdt]

15 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

@Matrix4You Name Jumanji helps but it's Dwayne's global (dom + OS) boxoffice power and Kevin's domestic pull that really did wonders for the movie. Brand name alone isn't enough. Look how poorly Ghostbusters did cause they started nobodies from SNL and Melissa who has only a domestic pull in the 70M-100M range. That's too low for expensive shit that GB was. 

saying 'Jumanji' sounds better IMO.  it seems catchy.  there is a drum beat.  maybe the Distributors have an affect w the cutting of the film?

[MaxAggressor]

 

 

[Valonqar]

Just now, Matrix4You said:

saying 'Jumanji' sounds better IMO.  it seems catchy.  there is a drum beat.  maybe the Distributors have an affect w the cutting of the film?

maybe

[MaxAggressor]

 

[MaxAggressor]

SO PP3's 4 day weekend is up from 6.73m to 7.27m (+8%) & I:TLK is up from 14.105m to 14.61m (+3.58%). OTOH, Darkest Hour decreased from 5.695m to 5.59m (-1.84%).

[a2k]

PP3 could go over Baby Driver on 2017 dom charts

[dxmatrixdt]

19 minutes ago, a2knet said:

PP3 could go over Baby Driver on 2017 dom charts

Girls Trip?  theater retention and 3m next weekend?  stronger weekdays....  is this really only a  weekend mvoie?  the weekdays sucked

Edited January 15, 2018 by Matrix4You

[a2k]

TLJ's Sunday drop was reported unusually high at 31% for MLK weekend so the 3-day could be better than official estimates. As to 4-day, the only numbers we have are from Deadline and they gave a 0% drop on Monday so higher actual Sunday might not lead to a higher than Deadline's Monday as they have already gone optimistic.

Edited January 15, 2018 by a2knet

[MaxAggressor]

 

It's up from the initial estimate. It's has gone from 4.108 million to 4.21 million. So new estimate is 2.48% higher.

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, MaxAggressor said:

 

It's up from the initial estimate. It's has gone from 4.108 million to 4.21 million. So new estimate is 2.48% higher.

I wonder how many theaters Neon is planning on expanding this to next weekend. $30M+ total is essentially locked with Oscar noms ahead, and it has a shot at $40M too.

[MaxAggressor]

7 minutes ago, a2knet said:

TLJ's Sunday drop was reported unusually high at 31% for MLK weekend so the 3-day could be better than official estimates. As to 4-day, the only numbers we have are from Deadline and they gave a 0% drop on Monday so higher actual Sunday might not lead to a higher than Deadline's Monday as they have already gone optimistic.

I made a post on the Monday number for TLJ a few pages back

 

Quote

I'm seeing that most BO sites are estimating a (3.425-3.45) million Monday for TLJ. R1 did 3.34 million on the same day and it has been ahead of TLJ by 19.72% (Fri), 13.3% (Sat) & 28.17% (Sun) w.r.t TLJ. So TLJ will hafta drop just 1.33% from Sunday for it to beat R1's Monday. R1 itself dropped 24.97% on Monday. Looks a bit suspect, no??

 

Nao on further investigation I found that R1 dropped 22.72% (TFA dropped just 18.53% on the same day) on the 31st day. So the BO sites are most likely low-balling the Sunday figure for TLJ this weekend otherwise the Monday number looks all outta whack.

[dxmatrixdt]

PP3 MAYBE MON=FRI.  96.44 TOTAL.

[dxmatrixdt]

6 minutes ago, Matrix4You said:

PP3 MAYBE MON=FRI.  96.44 TOTAL.

weekdays sucked for PP3 and attendance equaling last weeks Tue-Thurs delivers it to a total of 98.08 w/ a 3 million minimum week #5 101.08 total, 110 max.

Edited January 15, 2018 by Matrix4You

[a2k]

 

[a2k]

^^^ RO's legs off the 4-day weekend give 30.28/16.81*15.38+595.56 = 623.26 to TLJ

Edited January 15, 2018 by a2knet

[dxmatrixdt]

Insidious averaged $3,952.3 w/ 3,150 theater counts.  12.45 weekend.  It should loose about 700 theaters for its third weekend when contracts are up, especially with the influx of at least 10,000 new pictured prints going to new locations.  this would make 2,450 locations.  a good average to look at PTA wise is $2,450.  That makes $6,002,500 for the third weekend, a 51.8% drop, and a $2,450 PTA is 62% of this weekend's PTA for Insidious: The Last Key.  This might do 75 million total. 

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=exorcismofemilyrose.htm

 

2005

Date (click to view chart)	Rank	Weekend Gross	% Change	Theaters	Change / Avg.		Gross-to-Date	Week #
Sep 9–11	1	$30,054,300	-	2,981	-	$10,081	$30,054,300	1
Sep 16–18	2	$14,851,719	-50.6%	2,983	+2	$4,978	$51,561,110	2
Sep 23–25	5	$7,448,102	-49.9%	3,045	+62	$2,446	$62,256,212	3
Sep 30–Oct 2	7	$4,380,280	-41.2%	3,004	-41	$1,458	$68,502,023	4
Oct 7–9	13	$2,442,028	-44.2%	1,827	-1,177	$1,336	$72,130,811	5
Oct 14–16	18	$955,509	-60.9%	1,040	-787	$918	$73,827,336	6
Oct 21–23	27	$360,959	-62.2%	394	-646	$916	$74,456,138	7
Oct 28–30	29	$262,252	-27.3%	372	-22	$704	$74,808,873	8
Nov 4–6	32	$177,353	-32.4%	253	-119	$701	$75,072,454	9