Wednesday 2/14 (Valentine's Day) #s l Shades 10.8, Rabbit 1.88, 15:17 1.7

[Eric the IF]

http://deadline.com/2018/02/black-panther-fifty-shades-freed-valentines-day-box-office-1202288879/

Quote

According to industry estimates –not Universal figures– the E.L. James threequel has already bagged $5.5M for the lovers’ holiday, already 41% ahead of its $3.9M Tuesday figure, and will swoon moviegoers by tonight with a total Wednesday between $10M-$11M. That will bring the James Foley-directed pic to over $56M on the high end. A year ago, Fifty Shades Darker earned $11M on Valentine’s Day alone and further juiced the sequel’s business to a final result of $114.6M. Valentine’s Day fell on Saturday when Fifty Shades of Grey

 

Edited February 15, 2018 by CoolEric258

[That One Girl]

an increase from cheap Tuesday?  Greatest Showman legs incoming

[TwoMisfits]

13 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

http://deadline.com/2018/02/black-panther-fifty-shades-freed-valentines-day-box-office-1202288879/

 

Matching #2's Valentine's Day should help Fifty Shades get the bump needed to eventually reach $100M DOM in its run, barring a catastrophic fall this weekend...

[a2k]

Peter Rabbit being about bunnies should get healthy bump on Wed too I guess 

[MovieMan89]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

Matching #2's Valentine's Day should help Fifty Shades get the bump needed to eventually reach $100M DOM in its run, barring a catastrophic fall this weekend...

NOOOOOOO!

 

But in all seriousness, I doubt it. Darker had a massive 181% VD bump and only finished with a 2.45x multi. The same multi gives Freed 95m. Thursday will probably be back below Monday's number, which should lead to a similar second weekend drop as Darker. Darker only had 23m left to add after President's Day. The same 4 day hold as Darker would put Freed around 76m off a 19m 4 day (4m lower than Darker's 23m 4 day). 

Edited February 15, 2018 by MovieMan89

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

NOOOOOOO!

 

But in all seriousness, I doubt it. Darker had a massive 181% VD bump and only finished with a 2.45x multi. The same multi gives Freed 95m. Thursday will probably be back below Monday's number, which should lead to a similar second weekend drop as Darker. Darker only had 23m left to add after President's Day. The same 4 day hold as Darker would put Freed around 76m off a 19m 4 day (4m lower than Darker's 23m 4 day). 

Little different calendar set up though...Valentine's Day was closer to the prior weekend for movie #2 vs this one being dead middle of the week...so more folks may have planned this weekend festivities vs last one (although, yes, many of those "hold-overs" will be at Black Panther:)...

 

And you have the "free" factor of Moviepass now...much more "see it for curiosity" money floating around...with 2 million folks, you wouldn't need that much "free money" from folks who'd never pay to see this (and probably didn't pay for the last 2 but caught them free on tv) to give that extra bump in the legs that the prior movie didn't have...

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

7 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Little different calendar set up though...Valentine's Day was closer to the prior weekend for movie #2 vs this one being dead middle of the week...so more folks may have planned this weekend festivities vs last one (although, yes, many of those "hold-overs" will be at Black Panther:)...

 

And you have the "free" factor of Moviepass now...much more "see it for curiosity" money floating around...with 2 million folks, you wouldn't need that much "free money" from folks who'd never pay to see this (and probably didn't pay for the last 2 but caught them free on tv) to give that extra bump in the legs that the prior movie didn't have...

 

 

Once again, you're overestimating how much MoviePass contributes to movies. For something fanbase driven like Fifty Shades, MoviePass will be accounting for very few sales (less than 5%). This is on track to make about 10M admissions; do you really think over half of MoviePass users are seeing this?

Edited February 15, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

And you have the "free" factor of Moviepass now...much more "see it for curiosity" money floating around...with 2 million folks, you wouldn't need that much "free money" from folks who'd never pay to see this (and probably didn't pay for the last 2 but caught them free on tv) to give that extra bump in the legs that the prior movie didn't have...

I highly, highly doubt there's anyone going to see Fifty Shades Freed who hadn't already decided beforehand they were going to see it with our without the existence of MoviePass.

[baumer]

Nice VD bump for 50 Shades.

[CJohn]

@MCKillswitch123

 

http://www.ica-ip.pt/fotos/downloads/box_office_semanal_de_8_a_14_fev_2018_266725a857473cfd88.pdf

 

Carnaval + V-Day week numbers are amazing for everything. Fifty Shades is still huge even if it dropped from the 2nd movie (which itself dropped from the 1st one). For comparison, the 1st sold 160.000 tickets in 4 days, while the 2nd one sold 127.000 tickets on the first 4 days. This one sold 95.000 tickets in the first 4 days.

[George Parr]

12 hours ago, That One Guy said:

an increase from cheap Tuesday?  Greatest Showman legs incoming

Cheap Tuesday didn't really have all that much of an effect yesterday though. The majority of movies was around 20 percentage points below their most recent Tuesday increases, some were even over 30 percentage points below their normal Tuesday increases, which meant that some movies dropped rather significantly yesterday. Only Den of Thieves stayed somewhat closely to its normal increases.

[TwoMisfits]

8 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Once again, you're overestimating how much MoviePass contributes to movies. For something fanbase driven like Fifty Shades, MoviePass will be accounting for very few sales (less than 5%). This is on track to make about 10M admissions; do you really think over half of MoviePass users are seeing this?

No, but its $5M to $100M...$5M at $14 admissions is 350K admissions...do I assume there will be 10-20% of Moviepass folks who would have passed (b/c they are cheap) that now won't (b/c they love "getting value") - sure...especially when there are 500K new members who have cards burning holes in their pockets who will see almost anything for a month. We know these new members see 6-12 movies their 1st month and with Black Panther taking 4 spots at most 12s, how many movie options do they have?:)

 

The poster above says the Math based on the last movie gets you to about $95M...I'm saying the Math doesn't account for the free money and could get this to $100M (it's not getting it to $200M, but a $5M bump for the free money is not that much...not anymore...and who knows if 2M subscribers has already become 2.1, 2.2, etc)...

Edited February 15, 2018 by TwoMisfits

[MCKillswitch123]

1 hour ago, CJohn said:

@MCKillswitch123

 

http://www.ica-ip.pt/fotos/downloads/box_office_semanal_de_8_a_14_fev_2018_266725a857473cfd88.pdf

 

Carnaval + V-Day week numbers are amazing for everything. Fifty Shades is still huge even if it dropped from the 2nd movie (which itself dropped from the 1st one). For comparison, the 1st sold 160.000 tickets in 4 days, while the 2nd one sold 127.000 tickets on the first 4 days. This one sold 95.000 tickets in the first 4 days.

Indeed, 1M is always a massive opening result, even for a big holiday week.

 

Also, The Post, Darkest Hour and The Shape Of Water all have some pretty kick-ass numbers (for the type of movies they are).

Edited February 15, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[CJohn]

1 hour ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Indeed, 1M is always a massive opening result, even for a big holiday week.

 

Also, The Post, Darkest Hour and The Shape Of Water all have some pretty kick-ass numbers (for the type of movies they are).

You can thank the Oscars power for that. Three Billboards is also doing very well.

[Eric the IF]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2018/02/15/box-office-fifty-shades-freed-whips-up-boffo-10-8m-on-valentines-day/

 

$10.82M, according to Scotty.

[DMan7]

No surprising, women came out in droves to see this. 

[MCKillswitch123]

15 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

NOOOOOOO!

 

But in all seriousness, I doubt it. Darker had a massive 181% VD bump and only finished with a 2.45x multi. The same multi gives Freed 95m. Thursday will probably be back below Monday's number, which should lead to a similar second weekend drop as Darker. Darker only had 23m left to add after President's Day. The same 4 day hold as Darker would put Freed around 76m off a 19m 4 day (4m lower than Darker's 23m 4 day). 

Darker's VD bump isn't that impressive in hindsight, tbh. Valentine's Day last year was on a cheap Tuesday. That didn't happen this year, as VD fell on a Wednesday; yet still, if Freed holds the 11M estimate, it will also have had a 180-181% VD bump.... from a cheap Tuesday, rather than in one.

 

To me, that may or may not incite legs on par w/Darker from here on out. Darker had a 1.86x from its acummulated number up until VD; if Freed has the same week-through-VD multiplier, it'll make around 104.5M DOM. So, it's still a big 50/50 shot at this point, but don't count it out yet. And despite Black Panther, I think that 50S might still have a lot of dates coming to celebrate a late VD weekend; PLUS the spillover effect, and the 4-day weekend. I'll be shocked if it has a sub-60% drop for the 3-day, but it's still too soon to say it won't reach 100.

Edited February 15, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[MaxAggressor]

(1)

Fifty Shades Freed

Universal

$10,768,020

+173%

3,768

$2,858

$56,045,870

6

 

(5)

The Greatest Showman

20th Century Fox

$1,079,356

+57%

2,373

$455

$148,893,494

57

 

(6)

Maze Runner: The Death Cure

20th Century Fox

$931,540

+73%

2,923

$319

$51,176,106

20

 

(11)

Den of Thieves

STX Entertainment

$664,219

+100%

1,468

$452

$42,346,350

27

 

(10)

The Shape of Water

Fox Searchlight

$655,864

+63%

1,780

$368

$51,318,232

76

 

-

(8)

The Post

20th Century Fox

$603,423

+43%

1,865

$324

$74,320,217

55

 

(9)

Hostiles

Entertainment Studi…

$475,738

+18%

2,214

$215

$27,213,299

55

 

(13)

Three Billboards Outside Eb…

Fox Searchlight

$333,401

+19%

1,273

$262

$46,278,721

97

 

(15)

I, Tonya

Neon

$251,320

+27%

1,088

$231

$25,967,319

69

Edited February 15, 2018 by MaxAggressor

[Eric the IF]

http://deadline.com/2018/02/black-panther-fifty-shades-freed-valentines-day-box-office-1202288879/

 

Shades: $10.8M

Rabbit: $1.88M

15:17: $1.7M

[MaxAggressor]

(2)

Peter Rabbit

Sony Pictures

$1,885,533

+23%

3,725

$506

$29,895,608

6

 

(4)

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle

Sony Pictures

$1,666,242

+102%

3,136

$531

$369,076,998

57